Etikett: LCFE

Sliding Oil Prices Attract Bargain Hunters

Sliding Oil Prices Attract Bargain HuntersSliding Oil Prices Attract Bargain Hunters

ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly – Sliding Oil Prices Attract Bargain Hunters

Highlights

•  Long WTI and Brent crude oil ETPs received US$ 48.2mn and US$12.0mn respectively marking the seventh consecutive week of inflows into oil ETPs.

•  Outflows of US$106.2mn from gold ETPs marked the 13th consecutive week of redemptions.

•  Agricultural ETPs continue to see strong inflows.

•  Outflows from ETFS leveraged Coffee (LCFE) rose to the highest level in 10 weeks.

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The depreciation of the Yuan against the US dollar by 3.4 percent last week caused by reform to the fixing method sent reverberations across commodity markets, revitalizing gold’s safe haven status. In addition the sluggish European GDP data sparked concerns on the strength of the European economic recovery. The PMI data in Europe and Industrial production figures will remain in focus this week.

Long WTI and Brent crude oil ETPs received US$ 48.2mn and US$12.0mn respectively marking the seventh consecutive week of inflows into oil ETPs. The monthly report by Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) confirmed that OPEC continues to keep the world oversupplied as their collective output surpassed 31.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) compared to their target of 30 mb/d. Bargain hunters took support from the monthly International Energy Agency (IEA) report that revised the 2015 global growth outlook upwards, raising demand expectations by 1.6mb/d in 2015, by the fastest pace in five years. The weekly US Energy Information Agency (EIA) report showed US crude oil supplies fell by 1.7m barrels, just shy of expectations. However EIA crude stocks are 86.5mn barrels above year ago levels and 93.2mn barrels above the five year average. The WTI crude oil price fell to a 6½ year low of US$41.3 per barrel considerably lower than its global counterpart Brent oil that hovered below US$50 per barrel leading to a widening price gap US$7 per barrel, last seen in May 2015. This has been blamed on rising storage levels at Cushing. Crude oil imports for the week stood at 7.5mb/d compared to 7.18mb/d the previous week. Evidently China took advantage of lower oil prices by importing a record volume of 30.71mn tons of crude oil in the first 7 months of the year up 10% since a year ago.

Outflows of US$106.2mn from gold ETPs marked the 13th consecutive week of redemptions. China’s change in currency policy lent support to gold, which rose to a three-week high of $1120/oz. ETP investors took profit, reaccelerating redemptions, which seemed to have slowed the week prior. The World Gold council (WGC) highlighted just how weak demand for the yellow metal was in Q2, with consumer demand in India and China falling 25% and 3% respectively. The industry body however expects current low prices to ignite consumer demand in these countries in a similar way to 2013.

Agricultural ETPs continue to see strong inflows. ETFS Agriculture (AIGA), ETFS Wheat (WEAT) and ETFS Corn (CORN) each saw their third consecutive week of inflows, of US$6.6mn, US$2.3mn and US$2.6mn respectively. In its latest monthly report, the USDA raised its US corn production forecasts by 1.2% driving its price down 1.6% over the week. However, with an intensifying El Nino likely to disrupt production later this year, ETP investors accumulated positions in corn in anticipation of a price rebound.

Outflows from ETFS leveraged Coffee (LCFE) rose to the highest level in 10 weeks. Arabica coffee prices rose 10.3% last week, driving profit-taking. Prices rose despite IBGE, the Brazilian government’s official statistics institute raising its forecast by 800k bags for the Brazilian coffee crop to 44.2m bags.

Key events to watch this week Investors will continue to remain focused on PMI data in Europe and industrial production in the US.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

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This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

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This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Oil Remains Volatile Ahead of the OPEC Meeting

Oil Remains Volatile Ahead of the OPEC Meeting

ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly Oil Remains Volatile Ahead of the OPEC Meeting

Oil ETPs see outflows as investors’ expectation of production cuts recede.

ETFS Daily Leveraged Coffee (LCFE) sees its highest ever inflow since inception in 2008.

IMF’s payment extension eases concern of immediate Greek default.

ETFS Daily Leveraged Natural Gas (LNGA) sees US$2.9mn inflows, the highest in 4 weeks on the back of bargain hunting.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

We are hosting a webinar on the 8th June to cover Friday’s OPEC meeting featuring Amrita Sen, a renowned oil analyst from Energy Aspects – find out more and register.

The premature gains in oil prices that we had seen since March 2015 started to unravel last week with WTI and Brent falling 5% and 6% respectively, before recovering somewhat on Friday. A firmer US dollar had weighed on all commodities. Added to that is a growing consensus that OPEC will not cut production at its June 5th meeting. We will be analyzing the outcome of that meeting in a webinar on June 8th with Amrita Sen from Energy Aspects. To register for the webinar please click here . On Friday we saw a 5% rally in WTI as the market read the larger than expected contraction in US rigs that week as a sign that US producers remain price sensitive.

Oil ETPs see outflows as investors’ expectation of production cuts recede. We have long argued that the gain in prices since March were premature given the lack of evidence of supply tightening. US shale oil rigs have been shut off at break neck speed in recent months, but that trend has come to halt with prices firming. Other high-cost producers will also be cutting back on production, but that process will take some time given the higher lead times. The OPEC is no longer trying to guarantee the rate of return for producers. It wants market share. It is increasingly likely that it will not cut production at its June 5th meeting. We saw US$48.5mn of outflows from long Brent and WTI ETPs, while profit taking withdrew a US$5.1mn from short oil ETPs. Many investors think there will be a better entry point non-US producers cut back on production and tighten global supplies.

ETFS Daily Leveraged Coffee (LCFE) sees its highest ever inflow since inception in 2008. With the price of coffee falling a further 2.6% last week, (29.0% y-o-y), investors saw another bargain hunting opportunity. While the price had rallied excessively in 2014 in response the drought in Brazil at the time, the recent crash in prices appears equally excessive. The 2014 drought which lasted into the February 2015 had irrevocably damaged Brazilian coffee bushes. Although strong rain since February will help recover yields by some margin, the bearish sentiment towards the commodity appears disproportionate. While the USDA and CONAB have revised upward their production estimates from Brazil, leaf rust fungus is rife in Central America, threatening to wipe out production in some of the smaller producing countries. El Niño, however remains a wild card. While the meteorological organisations have declared that the weather pattern will last through the Southern hemisphere winter, its intensity is still unknown. An El Niño could bring a warmer, dryer winter to Brazil, reducing frost damage, which could help the crop.

IMF’s payment extension eases concern of immediate Greek default. While the IMF allowed Greece to delay its 5th June payment to the end of the month, it also acknowledged that the country could leave the Euro area. Gold’s pullback of 1.7% and gold ETP outflows of US$11.6mn last week seem somewhat premature given the that the debt negotiations over the weekend have ended with no resolve.

ETFS Daily Leveraged Natural Gas (LNGA) sees US$2.9mn inflows, the highest in 4 weeks on the back of bargain hunting. An unexpectedly strong gain in gas storage drove prices down 8.2%. However, with summer weather likely to drive demand for gas higher in coming months, investors expect prices to recover.

Key events to watch this week. US payrolls will be the focus of investors this week as the Federal Reserve will remain very data dependent in its rates decisions.

Video Presentation

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.