Etikett: PHAG

China GDP in Focus After Rare Cut

China GDP in Focus After Rare CutChina GDP in Focus After Rare Cut

ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly China GDP in Focus After Rare Cut

Industrial metals see fifth consecutive week of inflows.

Silver price drops back to attractive level, prompting inflows as gold sees more outflows.

Long WTI ETPs see largest outflows since 2010, ahead of US weekly inventory data.

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China’s latest stimulus – cutting its repo rate – has helped support industrial metals and a solid GDP result this week will give more impetus to commodity markets. Chinese commodity exports rebounded in March in another sign of a stabilization in demand and going into a strong seasonal period, cyclical commodities like industrial metals, should be well supported. Defensive commodities like gold will be in the spotlight this week, as investors look ahead to Eurozone CPI and the US retail sales data releases to gauge the pace of policy divergence in 2015. Eurozone CPI releases will be key for this week’s ECB meeting discussions.

Industrial metals see fifth consecutive week of inflows. Value investors appear to be wading back into the industrial metals space, with inflows totaling US$85mn over the past five weeks. Investors are becoming more optimistic about the outlook for the Chinese economy following its latest cut in interest rates in order to support activity. ETFS Copper (COPA) has been the main beneficiary, receiving around a third of total inflows over the past month, totaling US$28mn. Chinese imports of unwrought copper jumped by over 45% in March from February, in an indication of the tightening underlying market. While down around 2% on a year ago, Q2 is strong from a seasonal perspective and imports could continue to strengthen.

Silver price drops back to attractive level, prompting inflows as gold sees more outflows. ETFS Physical Silver (PHAG) experienced the second consecutive weekly inflows, totaling US$13mn over the period. The inflows are the largest biweekly inflows in two months and come as silver dipped to the lowest level in three weeks. With the link between silver and gold remaining strong, any further increase in volatility should support prices. While we believe that a US$15-16/oz price level is a buying opportunity, the market remains plagued by years of oversupply. Nonetheless, investors appear to be seeing silver from a strong relative value perspective and if inflation expectations in the Eurozone continue to move lower this week, both gold and silver could be key beneficiaries.

Long WTI ETPs see largest outflows since 2010, ahead of US weekly inventory data. A strong rally in crude followed the announcement of price hikes from Saudi Arabia to its Asian clients in addition to a lack of clarity over the potential ramp up in production from Iran following a potential nuclear deal being agreed. Investors took the opportunity to take profit, with crude ETPs withdrawals totaling US$73mn last week. In contrast, net long positions in WTI futures reached the highest level since August 2014. With US crude production continuing to defy depressed prices – the EIA’s weekly report showed the build in inventories last week was nearly three times larger than expected, at nearly 11mn barrels – near term downside risk remains elevated.

Key events to watch this week. Commodity investors will be closely watching the GDP release from China to determine whether the slowdown is more pronounced than expected. We feel that stimulus can support activity so growth remains resilient around the 7% level in 2015. Retail sales will be the next signpost to gauge whether the US economy is strong enough to support the beginning of policy tightening this year. Ahead of the ECB meeting, Eurozone inflation readings will also be critical for defensive commodities like gold and silver.

Video Presentation

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Geopolitical Risks in Focus

Geopolitical Risks in Focus

ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly Geopolitical Risks in Focus

Dovish outlook causes gold bears to trim exposure.

Profit taking prompts ETFS Physical Silver (PHAG) outflows after 7.9% weekly rally.

Long WTI ETPs witness first weekly outflows in six months.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Conflict in Yemen, Iranian nuclear talks and Greek debt negotiations will mean geopolitical risks are likely to dominate headlines and keep investor risk appetite subdued. As a result, asset price volatility will remain elevated, as illustrated last week by the impact of Saudi Arabia’s military actions, which sent the price of crude soaring. Towards the end of the week, investor attention will turn to US payroll data due, hoping to gain a better indication of the pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Dovish outlook causes gold bears to trim exposure. Fed chair Yellen’s speech last week highlighted the gradual nature of the tightening cycle when it begins later in 2015. This has kept the US Dollar relatively subdued and precious metals prices supported as rate hike expectations continued to be pushed back – a process that began after the latest FOMC meeting. The gold price ended the week up 3.2% at US$1,199/oz, just below the important US$1,200/oz psychological level. The rally prompted US$109mn to exit ETFS Daily Short Gold (SBUL) as positive sentiment caused investors to reduce short gold exposure. Gold is likely to be supported by rising volatility in coming months, as investors dissect economic indicators to discern the start of the tightening cycle – currently expected at the September FOMC meeting.

Profit taking prompts ETFS Physical Silver (PHAG) outflows after 7.9% weekly rally. Silver followed gold higher last week as geopolitical concerns coupled with a relatively dovish tone from the US Federal Reserve about the pace and timing of rate hikes, boosted the demand for precious metals. Precious metals typically become an attractive alternative during periods of low interest rates and any perceived delays to rate normalisation in the US will act as a bullish factor for the complex. PHAG saw a net weekly redemption of US$7mn following the price rally, as investors locked in profits. This year silver has performed well rising 7.3% and has attracted of inflows US$70.7mn into ETPs providing long exposure.

Long WTI ETPs witness first weekly outflows in six months. US crude rallied 17% last week encouraging profit taking by investors with long exposure. The rally, initially instigated by Dollar depreciation. was assisted by Saudi led airstrikes launched in Yemen against the Houthi rebels, after the internationally recognised Yemeni president made pleas for assistance. Although Yemen produces relatively little oil, the bombings raised fears that the conflict would escalate between oil rich Saudi Arabia and Iran, which is believed to have provided arms, training and financial support to rebel forces. Long WTI ETPs, until now, had experienced the longest streak of net weekly inflows (25) since inception as investors positioned themselves for a recovery in oil prices. Last week, a total of US$50.1mn exited long oil ETPs, including US$26mn from ETFS Daily Leveraged WTI Crude Oil (LOIL), the largest net weekly outflow since 2011.

Key events to watch this week. Market focus will be on US payroll data due on Friday, as investors continue to try and preempt the pace of rate hikes in the US. Geopolitical risks will continue to remain in the fore as the deadline for an Iranian nuclear deal approaches and the impasse over a Greek debt deal lingers. Precious metals investors will be monitoring Eurozone CPI, which will likely reveal the ECB still has much to do to help boost inflationary pressures via strengthening demand.

Video Presentation

Joshpreet Tiwana, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Oil Rally Consolidates Conviction in Crude

Oil Rally Consolidates Conviction in Crude

Commodity ETP Weekly Oil Rally Consolidates Conviction in Crude

Strongest weekly rally in four years drives inflows into long oil ETPs.
ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU) reverses outflows from previous week.
Investors seeking leveraged exposure to gold drive inflows into ETFS Physical Silver (PHAG).
Bearish US inventory report stimulates inflows into long natural gas ETPs.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

The gold price tumbled and crude rallied on Friday immediately following the release of strong US payrolls data which reflected the health of the US labour market and the continuing theme of divergence between the US and Eurozone economies. In Asia, after cutting the Reserve Requirement Ratio by 50bps the People’s Bank of China may be under pressure to take more significant easing measures if upcoming Chinese inflation, money and loan supply data prove disappointing. Industrial metal prices are likely to be key beneficiaries of any further stimulus measures that are announced by the Chinese authorities.

Strongest weekly rally in four years drives inflows into long oil ETPs. ETFS WTI Crude Oil (CRUD) and ETFS Brent (OILB) saw US$80m of inflows this week as crude prices experienced the largest weekly gain since 2011. Escalation of violence in Libya, strong US labour market data and fall in the US oil rig count have prompted a strong rally in oil prices despite the release of record high US crude inventory figures. Investors are positioning themselves to benefit from the current positive sentiment in oil markets and the potential recovery in crude prices over the year.

ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU) reverses outflows from previous week. US$65mn flowed into PHAU this week as investors continued to seek a safe haven from the uncertain political and economic situation in Europe. The gold price swung between gains and losses this week ultimately ending the week down 0.7%. The gold price was pressured by news that the newly elected Greek government would not be demanding a write off of international debt contrary to market expectations.

Investors seeking leveraged exposure to gold drive inflows into ETFS Physical Silver (PHAG). US$20mn flowed into PHAG this week despite the price falling -2.5%. Silver has performed well this year climbing 6.4% YTD as deflationary price pressure from tumbling oil prices has instigated a series of rate cuts by central banks and quantitative easing (QE) by the ECB. The result has been increased demand for silver due to investors perceiving the metal as a leverage play on gold.

Bearish US inventory report stimulates inflows into long natural gas ETPs. Bargain hunting investors seeking a rebound in prices drove US$7.2mn of inflows into ETFS Daily Leveraged Natural Gas as the spot price reached two and a half year lows this week. The fall was instigated by a smaller than expected withdrawal from US natural gas storage reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Investors are betting that low gas prices will stimulate greater demand from industrial producers and electricity companies in coming months which should lead to a price recovery.

Key events to watch this week. Following the strong US payrolls reading on Friday market attention will turn towards Europe and Asia this week. On Wednesday, the Euro area finance ministers hold emergency meeting to discuss a sustainable solution to Greece’s bailout program. This will come before Eurozone Q4 2014 GDP data released on Friday. In China, release of the level of aggregate financing, new Yuan loans and money supply will give a good indication of the health of Chinese credit markets and provide signs as to whether the central bank will have to ease policy further.

Video Presentation

Josh Tiwana, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.