Etikett: Rates

All Eyes on the Federal Reserve

All Eyes on the Federal ReserveAll Eyes on the Federal Reserve

Commodity ETP Weekly- All Eyes on the Federal Reserve

Highlights

•    Oil ETPs inflows resume. On the 14th September we will be hosting a webinar to discuss where next for the oil price – find out more
•    Agriculture ETPs see inflows ahead of WASDE report.
•    Industrial metal price bounce drives profit-taking.

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The US Federal Open Market Committee will convene this week to discuss raising interest rates. We don’t believe they will pull the trigger on this occasion, given the uncertainty surrounding the deceleration of China and Europe and elevated financial market volatility. The last time the central bank increased rates was in 2006 and will not take this decision lightly. A policy reversal will be costly for the Fed’s reputation and we think the central bank will err on the side of caution while it assess whether these risks are likely to drive price expectations lower or hurt labour market prospects. A surprise rate rise could be gold price negative.

Oil ETPs inflows resume. After a week’s break, oil ETPs continued to see inflows with US$12.5mn of creations. Falling prices drove bargain hunters into mainly WTI ETPs. A surprisingly high inventory build last week pushed WTI prices lower. However, the IEA in its latest oil market report expressed its view that crude supply from non- OPEC countries will decline by the most in two decades. The decline of 0.5mn barrels per day will mainly come from Russia, North Sea and USA. Current low prices have boosted demand and therefore the “call” on OPEC will rise. With OPEC spare capacity running lower, the potential for a shock to translate into substantially higher prices remains elevated.

Agriculture ETPs see inflows ahead of WASDE report. With El Niño conditions intensifying to the worst level since 1997 and the possibility of it becoming the most extreme on record, interest in agricultural ETPs has resumed. Wheat and corn ETPs saw inflows of US$4.3mn and US$1.1mn respectively ahead of the WASDE report. The US winter wheat harvest is now complete and the USDA is finalising its estimate of the crop. The Australian wheat season is underway and could be impacted by the El Niño weather pattern, which could reverse some of the ample rain the country has seen recently. US corn is currently in a stage of growth that is vulnerable to weather changes. On the 15th September CONAB will release its Brazilian coffee harvest estimate. This report will end months of speculation about the size of the crop. There has been heightened uncertainty because of the highly volatile weather the country has experienced this season. While a drought early in the season was thought to have led to a poor a crop, late rains and then warmth bought by the El Niño suppressed frost damage, likely driving production higher than initially thought. We are likely to see a relatively sizeable crop albeit of lower quality. Coffee ETPs saw US$2.5mn of inflows.

Industrial metal price bounce drives profit-taking. Nickel, copper and palladium (an industrially-inclined precious metal) rose 4.4%, 2.9% and 1.0% respectively, completely reversing the losses from 2 weeks ago. The market has released that the fears of a China-led slowdown in industrial metals has been overdone. However, the bounce in prices drove outflows from nickel, copper and palladium ETPs of US$1.1mn, US$6.7mn and US6.5mn respectively.

Key events to watch this week. In addition to the Fed, The Swiss National Bank and Bank of Japan, two other policy makers of haven currency countries will host their respective monetary policy meetings, revealing their interpretation of recent financial market turmoil. Brazil’s CONAB will reveal just how large the coffee harvest this season has been..

Video Presentation

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

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To Hike or Not to Hike

To Hike or Not to Hike

To Hike or Not to Hike Monthly Update

Presenting our monthly macroeconomic report co-authored by ETF Securities Research and Roubini Global Economics To Hike or Not to Hike

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To Hike or Not to Hike

This report provides an update to themes introduced in our Quarterly Outlook, published in June. Our focus this month is on policy divergence and the Fed’s ‘Lift-Off’.

The attention of investors is dominated by EM turbulence and speculation about the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Our view on the most likely timing of the Fed’s first rate hike has moved from September to December. Given current turbulence and market volatility there is a risk of further delay into early 2016 but the speed and duration of hikes after the first rate rise in nine years is still more important than the initial lift off. Persistent disinflationary pressures have made a delay until December increasingly probable, while a slower-than-normal ”normalization” path after the first hike is a near certainty.

This is a key element of the theme of monetary policy divergence we established in January. The first hike and messaging will set the tone for the longer normalization cycle. The Fed seems likely to be followed in tightening by the Bank of England, even as other key central banks (in Europe and Japan) ease further.

What to watch this month: Fed policy meeting (September 17), to see whether Janet Yellen and co. take the plunge or delay until December, or even into 2016; in emerging markets, Brazil’s central bank meets (September 1-2) to decide if the 14.25% interest rate will be enough to quell inflation; in Mexico, we expect Banxico to parrot the U.S. with a hike to 3.25% on September 21, if the Fed surprises markets.

 

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

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This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

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Central Bank Rhetoric Key For Near-Term FX Moves

Central Bank Rhetoric Key For Near-Term FX Moves

ETFS Currency Weekly Central Bank Rhetoric Key For Near-Term FX Moves

A weekly overview of global currency market developments. The report details the past week’s performance of G10 currency pairs and currency baskets, directional model signals for the week ahead, longer-term consensus currency forecasts, futures market positioning data and a macroeconomic commentary on the FX market.

 

Summary

 

Stress tests no help for the Euro
Oil and rates to lift CAD
GBP stable for now, but weakness ahead
USD/JPY to re-test 110 level

 

 

 

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For more information contact

 

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

 

Important Information

General

 

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

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