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Sveriges största sida om ETF och börshandlade fonder
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Commodity ETP Weekly – Long oil ETP inflows at a 17 month year high
Investors increased exposure into long oil ETPs by the most since March 2015 as WTI fell below US$40/bbl. Last week saw net inflows of US$113mn into long oil ETPs as well as outflows of US$4mn from short oil ETPs as the price of WTI fell below the US$40/bbl. early last week. The unusual increase of oil inventories in the US for the second consecutive week is weighing on the price of both oil benchmarks despite gasoline inventories showing a large drawn-down for the first time this summer. Petroleum inventories in the US tend to decline during the summer driving season. We expect WTI crude inventories to follow gasoline inventories and start to decrease in coming weeks.
Gold continues to see inflows as it trades near a 2-year high. Last week saw US$74.4mn inflows into gold ETPs. While initially rising due to monetary expansion in the UK and fiscal expansion in Japan, gold slid following a bullish US non-farm payroll release. The recent decline could generate a fresh-round of buying as investors seek to shore up hedges in their portfolio.
Robotics and cybersecurity gain traction. Viewed as the sectors of the future, we believe that both robotic and cybersecurity are likely to perform well if held in a portfolio for the long term due to their stable revenues. Equity indices exposed to robotic and cyber stocks rose 7% and 9% respectively over the past month while the ETPs saw net inflows of US$27.2mn and US$10.7mn respectively over the same period.
Short sterling and long euro, the leitmotif in the FX market. Following the Bank of England decision to cut its policy rate and expand its quantitative easing, the British pound fell by 1.6% against the Euro generating inflows of US$6.4mn into short GBP ETPs. Combined with the strong US non-farm payroll the following day, Sterling was down 2.4% against the US dollar. We are likely to see further downward pressure on the pound in the near term.
Key events to watch this week. China trade balance for July came higher than expected this morning as China imports dropped by 5.7%. The country is due to release a number of other indicators over the course of the week including CPI, retail sales and industrial production. UK 3 month GDP estimate for July will be closely watched along with UK and US retail sales.
Edith Southammakosane, Multi-Asset Strategist at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.
This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.
This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.
Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.
Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.
The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.
ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.
Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.
If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.
ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – The slightly hawkish FOMC statement failed to curb investors’ appetite for gold
• Gold inflows suggest investors continue to hedge against uncertainties ahead.
• Global equity ETPs attracted US$33mn. Inflows dominated by thematic ETPs related to robotics.
• The Bank of Japan easing measures fell short of expectations, boosting long JPY exposures.
Inflows into crude oil ETPs rise by US$35.3mn, while Brent crude has entered a new bear market. The inflows in long oils (US$40mn) are the largest since February this year suggesting that investors see buying opportunities in the weakness of Brent. Brent price fell more than 20% since the peak of US$52.86 in June, reaching US$42 per barrel. The latest drift downward in crude oil prices comes as outages are reduced, there is an overhang of refined products and US rig counts rise.
Inflows into wheat ETPs rise for the 7th consecutive week. The International Grains Council revised upward (+7mn tons) its estimate for the global wheat production in the 2016-17 harvest year. This increase of supply, together with an upward revision of opening stocks, resulted in a 1.8% decline of wheat price on the week.
Global equity inflows increase US$33mn led by thematic ETPs related to robotics. In the meantime, investors continue to reduce their long positions in Europe equity ETPs – although at a moderate pace – in the wake of weaker macro indicators in the region. Last week, we saw US$3mn outflows from EU equity ETPs after inflows culminated at US$10.3mn mid-July.
Investors increase their exposure to JPY by US$18.2mn. The central bank of Japan (BoJ) enlarged its annual purchase of equity ETFs by JPY2.7tn to JPY6tn, while keeping its key monetary tools unchanged. Investors judge the current action insufficient to have a material impact on the inflation outlook. As a result, the JPY soared by 2.85% to 102.30 against the US dollar at close.
Key events to watch this week. The Bank of England meeting will be held on Thursday. The July PMI indicators showed signs of a coming recession in the UK. Investors expect a 25bps decrease of the base rate from 0.5% to 0.25%, to support the UK economy in its transition outside of EU. In the US, the ISM Manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices and more importantly the employment report will get the full attention of the market. A solid increase of nonfarm payrolls after the 287k rise in June would increase the odds for a rate hike in September.
Morgane Delledonne, Fixed Income Strategist at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.
This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.
This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.
Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.
Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.
The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.
ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.
Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.
If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.
Robothandel är något som de flesta inte undgått att höra talas om men det finns anledning att Håll ögonen på Robotics ETF, eller som den formellt heter Robo-Stox Global Robotics & Automation Index ETF (NasdaqGM: ROBO). När denna börshandlade fond lanserades i slutet av 2013 fick den ta emot en del kritik för att den var allt för nischad. Det sades att den hade inte var tillräckligt bred för att kunna attrahera ett intresse för det stora antalet investerare. Under 2015 har denna ETF backat med fem procent, en effekt av att industrisektorn har haft problem.
Räkna inte bort denna ETF, men satsa samtidigt inte allt kapital i denna börshandlade fond. Vi gillar denna nisch-ETF, men det är en börshandlad fond som kräver en försiktig hållning. Begreppet robotik vinner mark, och International Federation of Robotics förväntar sig att försäljningen av robotar världen över kommer att öka med 6 procent mellan 2014 och 2016. Prognosen är att cirka 190 000 industrirobotar kommer att levereras till företag runt om i världen under 2016.
Tech sektorn skulle kunna vända. Som en tillväxtorienterad sektor leder sektorn under ett marknad rally. Det betyder att vi kan komma att se ett rally inom tekniksektorn om förvaltarna väker att allokera ytterligare kapital till sektorn.
Enligt en rapport har KUKA AG gynnats av en ökad bilförsäljning på de tre största marknaderna, Västeuropa, Kina och USA där försäljningen spås ha ökat med 8,7 %, 5,5 % respektive 5,0 % för de första tre kvartalen 2015. KUKA är en av de företag som ingår i ROBO.
Det handelsvägda dollarindexet har ökat med cirka 15 procent under det senaste året och befinner sig just nu på den högsta nivån på tio år. Därför bör investerare vara medvetna om att den starkare dollarn kan påverka företagets försäljning i utlandet, särskilt för stora multinationella företag med betydande utländska exponering. Historiskt sett har industrisektorn återhämtade sig under perioder när den amerikanska dollarn försvagats. Följaktligen bör detta tyda på att industriföretag skulle vara negativt korrelerade till dollarn.
Denna ETF debiterar sina andelsägare ett förvaltningsarvode om 0,95 procent per år.
• Rising uncertainty benefits gold.
• Net inflows into natural gas ETPs continue.
• Copper rose on revised supply/demand balance.
• Production drop boosted sugar price.
• We will be hosting a webinar that will provide key insights into the fast emerging developments in robotics and the opportunities it represents for investors. Register here to attend
Rising uncertainty benefits gold. Gold ETPs recorded net inflows of US$18.4mn for the fourth consecutive week as US non-farm payroll released the previous Friday came out extremely weak at 53k below market expectations. Investors are now looking for signs that the Federal Reserve will still increase interest rates this year. Combined with weaker-than-expected US trade balance, the USD slid 1% over the past week to Thursday while gold price rose 1.9%. Silver ETPs on the other hand, saw net outflows of US$11.8mn, likely on profit taking as silver price surged 7.3% during the same period. Increased volatility in the financial market lent buoyancy to silver, a commodity commonly considered as a leverage of gold.
Net inflows into natural gas ETPs continue. Natural gas ETPs recorded another week of net inflows last week ahead of the winter heating season in the US. While the Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects natural gas demand from heating to be 10% lower than last year, the agency forecasts natural gas price to average US$2.81/MMBtu this year. Prices have averaged US$2.75/MMBtu so far this year suggesting that there is still scope for gains in the coming months. Meanwhile oil was the best performer of the week. Brent and WTI soared 11.2% and 10.5% respectively on the back of declining production in the US according to the EIA latest data. In addition, EIA expects global consumption growth to rise by 1.3mb/d in 2015 and 1.4mb/d in 2016, an upward revision of 100,000 barrels per day compared to September figures. Positive sentiment should remain supportive of prices and eventually translate into flows.
Copper rose on revised supply/demand balance. Copper ETPs saw net outflows of US$8.1mn last week as the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) revised down their forecast for 2015 surplus from 364k tonnes to 41k tonnes in their October report released last week, taking into account larger production cuts as a result of recent corporate announcements. The ICSG also expects copper to be in a 127k tonnes deficit in 2016 as opposed to the 228k tonnes surplus previously forecast.
Production drop boosted sugar price. Lower-than-average rainfall in India combined with excessive rain in Brazil and a production cut in China have reduced sugar global supply, sending the price of sugar to its 7-month high. Sugar spiked 35% since its lowest level in August. As a result, sugar ETPs recorded net outflows of US$5.2mn for the second week in a row on profit taking mainly from ETFS Sugar (SUGA) and ETFS Leveraged Sugar (LSUG).
Key events to watch this week. Chinese trade data will give an indication of demand from the world’s largest commodity consumer. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and market confidence for the US and Europe will also be in focus.
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.
This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.
This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.
Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.
Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.
The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.
ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.
Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.
If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.