The Bank of England has kept rates on hold at its meeting today, contrary to market expectations. Sterling staged a modest rebound, albeit from multi-decade low levels against the US Dollar, as the central bank held fire on further stimulus activity. The Bank of England noted that ‘most members of the Committee expect monetary policy to be loosened in August’, preferring to wait until its August Inflation Outlook report to gauge the impact of the EU Referendum.
The EU referendum has made the prospect of stagflation – the combination of weak growth and inflation – an increasingly likely situation for the UK economy. Although inflation currently hovers at 0.3%, the weaker Sterling (GBP) is likely to lead, at least in the short–term, to a rise in inflation via import prices.
A historical study[1] shows that the exchange rate pass-through for the UK could see over 10% impact on the CPI from currency movements. The 10% drop in the GBP could therefore result in a 1% move higher in CPI in the UK in the following 6-12 months after the exchange rate movement. The Bank of England calculates in its May 2016 inflation report that the impact from a 10% decline (since end-2015) in GBP could push inflation higher by 1.8-2.5% by end-2018. The GBP has declined 15% since end-2015, meaning the inflationary impact is likely to be greater than previous forecasts. The central bank concludes that ‘Ultimately, monetary policy would be set in order to meet the inflation target, while also ensuring that inflation expectations remained anchored.’
We expect that the impact of the EU referendum on GBP, and in turn domestic UK inflation, could be more persistent (in contrast to the Bank of England), especially in the event that inflationary expectations become unanchored. At the moment, there has been no real evidence of rising inflationary expectations in recent weeks. 5yr-5yr forward rates for the UK remain depressed, a seemingly direct result of the EU referendum. However, with fuel and food prices set to rise in coming weeks, a rebound could occur in expectations quite rapidly.
We anticipate that GBP is likely to be under further pressure in coming months, as the uncertainty surrounding the EU Referendum begins to show up in softer economic data and rising inflationary pressure from import prices.
[1] Campa and Goldberg, Distribution margins, imported inputs, and the sensitivity of the cpi to exchange rates, NBER, 2006.
Martin Arnold, Global FX & Commodity Strategist at ETF Securities
Martin Arnold joined ETF Securities as a research analyst in 2009 and was promoted to Global FX & Commodity Strategist in 2014. Martin has a wealth of experience in strategy and economics with his most recent role formulating an FX strategy at an independent research consultancy. Martin has a strong background in macroeconomics and financial analysis – gained both at the Reserve Bank of Australia and in the private commercial banking sector – and experience covering a range of asset classes including equities and bonds. Martin holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of New South Wales (Australia), a Master of Commerce from the University of Wollongong (Australia) and attained a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia.
Investors rotate to cyclical assets as confidence is slowly restored
Investors rotate to cyclical assets as confidence is slowly restored – Weekly Flows Analysis
Highlights
• Investors have begun to rotate away from defensive assets such as gold and the Swiss Franc into cyclical assets such as industrial metals and oil
• More clarity about the form of UK leadership and a delay in cutting interest rates in the UK has seen Sterling shorts unwinding, but that vote of confidence was not shared by equity investors
The surprisingly quick appointment of a new Prime Minister and the formation of a new Cabinet in the UK provided investors some relief in a month of heightened uncertainty. Investors sold out of defensive assets like gold and the Swiss Franc and bought cyclical assets like copper and oil. Short positions in GBP were reduced as the Bank of England held off from cutting rates, taking the market by surprise. Investors continued to build shorts in UK equities and sold long positions.
Gold and CHF ETPs see first weekly outflows since Brexit, while goldminers see inflows. Gold prices declined 1.8% last week as some of the uncertainty around UK politics was assuaged with the appointment of a Prime Minister and the formation of a new Cabinet. Also the strong US payrolls data for the month of June proved to be gold-price negative. US$41.4mn flowed out of long gold ETPs. Long CHF ETPs, another defensive asset, saw outflows in order of US$21.8mn. The outflows from long gold ETPs were relatively small compared to the inflows of over US$1bn in the prior five weeks. While investors sold gold ETPs, they bought gold miner equity ETFs, possibly to capture equity market beta. Inflows of US$9.9mn into gold miner ETFs marked a 10 week high.
Investors rotate into industrial metals. Investors bought close to US$40.8mn of long broad industrial metal ETPs and a further US$27.4mn of long copper ETPs in a clear indication that the ‘risk-off’ mode expressed by markets earlier this month is fading. With Chinese industrial production, money supply, retail sales and GDP figures all beating expectations last week, we believe that sentiment toward industrial metals will continue to improve. Indeed with copper, zinc and nickel expected to remain in a production deficit this year, prospects for these metals look positive.
Crude oil ETPs see the largest inflows since April. Bargain hunting is back after oil prices fell to US$45/bbl from over US$51/bbl at the end of June. Last week we saw inflows of US$21.8mn into long crude oil products (the third consecutive week of inflows) and US$7.2mn of outflows from short crude oil products.
Investors reduce short GBP exposure but continue to short UK equities. We saw US$23.2mn of outflows from short GBP ETPs as confidence in the UK was partially restored and the Bank of England held off from delivering a widely expected rate cut. However, that vote of confidence was not shared by equity investors, who added US$9.2mn to short UK ETFs, marking the third consecutive week of inflows since Brexit and withdrew US$9.5mn from long UK equities.
Key events to watch this week. Markets will remain focused on the ECB press conference following the policy decision on Thursday. They will be poised for clues on whether the quantitative easing programme will be extended beyond March 2017. The Q2 Euro area bank lending survey, which will be released this week, may offer insights on the efficacy of programme.
Video Presentation
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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En ETF att titta på inför Brexit. Ett av vårens stora samtalsämnen har varit Storbritanniens eventuella utträde ur EU eller inte. Detta är känt som ”Brexit”, och har varit den bidragande orsaken till att CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust (NYSEArca: FXB) varit utsatt för en enorm press under året. Denna börshandlade fond har emellertid börjat stabilisera sig under den senaste månaden. Är FXB en ETF att titta på inför Brexit?
Att investera på valutamarknaden är ett sätt för placerare att diversifiera och hedga sin portfölj, vilket minskar risken samtidigt som det ger dem en potential till värdeökning. De placerare som köper aktier i USA eller i Kanada tar på sig valutarisker. Om den utländska valutan försvagas jämfört med den svenska kronan kommer värdet på de utländska investeringarna också att sjunka i värde när omvandlas tillbaka till svenska kronor.
De flesta, om inte alla problem som FXB har haft under våren kan hänföras till farhågorna om att Storbritannien skulle kunna välja att lämna EU när en folkomröstning i frågan hålls i slutet av juni. När det är en månad kvar till folkomröstningen har spekulationerna intensifierats om hur hårt pundet kommer att straffas om Storbritannienlämnar EU.
Om Storbritannien lämnar EU, är det troligt att pundet försvagas betydligt direkt efter folkomröstningen. Om folkomröstningen kommer fram till att britterna vill lämna EU kommer det sannolikt att leda till att Storbritannien kommer att påbörja processen med att avsluta sitt medlemskap. Den direkta effekten av detta kommer att bli att såväl utländska och som inhemska investerare kommer att börja avveckla sina brittiska tillgångar och flytta dem till euro, US-dollar, eller andra valutor.
Tidigare i år noterade FXB en all-time-low när spekulationerna intensifierades om att Storbritanniens utträde ur EU var en reell möjlighet. Valutahandlare världen över är överens om att en sådan händelse skulle drabba det brittiska pundet hårt.
Kreditvärderingsinstitutet Moodys har varnat för att det kan komma att nedgradera Storbritanniens kreditvärdighet om landet lämnar den europeiska unionen. Många av de stora välkända fondförvaltarna håller med och bekräftar att de är av åsikten att pundet och brittiska aktier kan lida till följd av en ”Brexit.”
BOE, Bank of England, beslutade nyligen i ett enhälligt beslut att lämna styrräntan oförändrad, men samtidigt meddelades att landets centralbank sänker sin tillväxtprognos för det andra kvartalet. Den senaste inflationsrapporten visade också att den ekonomiska tillväxten skulle öka under andra halvåret 2016. BOE mål är en inflation på 0,9 procent för året vilket ger Bank of England gott om utrymme att stimulera ekonomin.
Ekonomiska data från Storbritannien har varit ganska mjuk under senare tid, vilket skulle kunna leda till ytterligare penningpolitiska åtgärder från BOE. Detta i kombination med rädsla för Brexit tyder på att risken för det brittiska pundet ligger på nedsidan. Skulle det emellertid visa sig att folkomröstningen visar att britterna vill stanna i EU då är FXB en ETF att titta på inför Brexit.
Investors profit-take and diversify within commodities
Investors profit-take and diversify within commodities – Commodity ETP Weekly
Highlights
Investors sold out of gold and oil ETPs, locking in profits after a 19.5% and 11.4% return year-to-date.
At the same time they are seeking opportunities elsewhere, hoping for a catch-up in performance from some of the laggard commodities such as silver and palladium.
Investors appear optimistic that the commodity rally is becoming more pervasive with strong inflows into broad commodity baskets (US$10.4mn, a four-week high).
Gold sees first weekly outflows this year. Investors sold US$15.9mn of gold ETPs, locking in profits after a 19.5% return since the beginning of the year. At the same time they increased holdings of long silver ETPs by US$12.2mn, marking the fourth week of inflows, as the metal is progressively catching up its yellow counterpart. Silver price gained 3% last week while gold ended the week flat belying the volatility of gold over the course of the week. Last week saw gold falling ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Wednesday. However, the reluctance of the central bank to follow through with the rate tightening cycle it embarked on in December 2015, led investors to believe it is making a policy mistake. As a result, gold rallied 3% after the announcement. Despite upgrading its view of general price strength, the Fed downgraded the number of times it expects to raise rates this year. Labour market strength combined with robust and rising core inflation leads us to believe that the Fed should hike more and sooner than the market expects (the next rate rise is expected in September). A policy error in the making is likely to be gold price positive.
Investors sold oil ETPs amid the 3.7% gain last week. We saw the third consecutive week of outflows from oil ETPs last week. The US$22.6mn withdrawal was entirely from WTI oil ETPs. After a 31% rise in WTI prices in the last month alone, investors were keen to lock in profits. Investors into oil ETPs have always tended to be contrarian, which is reflected our flows. While the market is becoming increasingly optimistic that oil supply can come closer to balance this year as US production declines, Iran’s lack of cooperation with the rest of OPEC to freeze production remains a wild-card and has led some investors to pare back on oil holdings. We believe that Iran overestimates its ability to ramp-up production and exports to pre-sanction levels as the upgrade of existing operable fields and the need for further infrastructure build requires funding that is not supported by the economics. The increase of Iranian oil production in the coming year will likely miss target.
Investors rotate within industrial metals. Investors built US$2mn positions in short copper ETPs last week while buying US$2.7mn of long nickel and US$0.5mn of aluminum. This mainly follows copper’s outperformance among the complex last week, up 4% compared to 1.5% for nickel while aluminum fell 2.8%. Globally, a loose monetary policy setting bodes well for the industrial metals complex.
Key events to watch this week. In this shortened week, a number of PMIs (US, Euro area, Japan) are likely to grab the headlines as they provide a gauge for the strength of industrial demand and thus the demand for cyclical commodities. UK inflation data will provide judgement on whether the Bank of England is following in the footsteps of its US counterpart by ignoring the firm economic fundamentals.
Video Presentation
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
Important Information
General
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.
This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.
This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.
Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.
Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.
The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.
ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.
Risk Warnings
Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.
If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.
CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust (NYSEArca: FXB) har backat med knappa två procent sedan starten av 2016, efter att ha fallit med nästan sex procent under 2015. Kursfallet kan emellertid bli betydligt brantare om Storbritannien väljer att lämna den europeiska unionen EU. Brexitkan straffa denna börshandlade fond kraftigt vilket vi förklara i denna artikel.
Med Federal Reserve redo att höja räntan flera gånger i år och flera marknadsbedömare tror att Bank of England (BOE) kommer att tvingas att skjuta upp samma sak vilket gör att dollarn kan vara på väg upp mot pundet.
Den svagare brittiska valutan kan också komma att tynga utvecklingen för de börshandlade fonder som följer den brittiska aktiemarknaden och inte är valutahedgade. Bland sådana ETFer kan nämnas iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF’s (NYSEArca: EWU) som följer brittiska företag och är känsligt för förändringar i valutakurserna eftersom stigande kurser på den brittiska aktiemarknaden i kombination med ett starkare pund leder till en högre avkastning mätt i dollar.
Den amerikanska investmentbanken Goldman Sachs tror att Storbritannienkommer att stanna kvar i EU, men banken strategiteam med ansvar för makromarknader har tittat på vad som kan komma att hända med det brittiska pundet om omröstningen går åt andra hållet, det vill säga om Brexit blir en verklighet.
Goldman Sachs förutspår att ett sådant resultat skulle skrämma utländska investerare och få dem att inte dem kapital i Storbritannien vilket skulle leda till ett negativt tryck på bytesbalansen.
Historiskt sett har valutahandlarna ansett att det brittiska pundet varit en av de utvecklade valutorna som kan rusa mot dollarn om Bank of England höjer räntorna. Det skedde inte och nu bedömer de flesta att BOE hamnat i ett dödläge oavsett om vi får se Brexit eller inte.
Goldman Sachs noterar att pundet föll 20 procent på en handelsvägd basis under den globala finanskrisen mellan juli 2008 och mars 2009 och bytesbalansunderskottet flyttas från 3,4 % av BNP till praktiskt taget noll. Om pundet förlorar mer ånga utan att dra ned de brittiska aktiekurserna kan det vara värt att titta på Deutsche db X-Trackers MSCI United Kingdom Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEArca: DBUK) eller WisdomTree United Kingdom Hedged Equity Fund (NasdaqGM: DXPS).
