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Greece The Dangerous Game of Brinkmanship Continues

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Greece The Dangerous Game of Brinkmanship Continues

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Highlights

Energy rallies while agriculture pares recent gains.
China A-shares rally on positive indications from MSCI.
Commodity currencies diverge.

Talks between Greece and its creditors collapsed over the weekend adding a further blow to the country’s precarious financial situation after the IMF pulled out discussions last week. Euro-zone finance ministers will meet again on Thursday to try to break the impasse, but the willingness from either side to see a resolution appears to be wearing thin. Elsewhere, the Federal Open Market Committee will host a press conference and present its summary of economic projections after its rate decision, where no change is expected.

Commodities

Energy rallies while agriculture pares recent gains. Natural gas gained 7.6% last week, reversing the previous two week’s losses. Higher power demand driven by air-conditioning needs tend to drive up natural gas demand in the summer period. Above average temperature forecasts for the south east of the US were the catalyst for the recent gains. There were no surprises in the weekly natural gas in storage data with a net change of 111 Bcf, close to 113 Bcf expected. Both Brent and WTI continued to defy the lack of material supply tightening news, with both benchmarks gaining close to 5%. Crude oil prices appear to be reacting to higher demand forecasts, but we believe that the higher prices themselves are likely to choke off demand. Sugar declined a further 3.5% last week, to a 6 year low, driven mainly by a depreciating Brazilian Real exchange rate. The global glut in sugar continues to weigh on sentiment. The USDA surprisingly increased wheat supply forecasts for this year. Wheat had previously been rallying following excess rain in in the key growing areas in the US.

Equities

China A-shares rally on positive indications from MSCI. MSCI declared it is a matter of “when” and not “if” they will include domestically traded A-Shares to its Emerging Market benchmark. MSCI announced that is working with the China Securities Regulatory Commission on overcoming the final roadblocks to inclusion. Furthermore they said they will not necessarily wait to their annual index review to announce inclusion. If reform maintains its current pace, we are likely to see MSCI’s concerns on capital mobility, quota allocation and beneficial ownership quickly resolved. That would pave the way for domestically traded shares to enter the emerging market index that currently has approximately US$1.5tn benchmarked against it. European bourses meanwhile traded lower as concerns about Greece’s precarious finances linger.

Currencies

Commodity currencies diverge. Citing weak commodity prices, falling import prices and subdued wage inflation, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate last week driving the NZD lower. It also expressed concern that the currency is still overvalued despite depreciating since April, and that further rate cuts are possible. The Reserve Bank of Australia also remains dovish. Meanwhile the recent bounce in oil price has supported NOK and CAD, driving the commodity currencies apart. The lack of progress in Greece’s negotiations with its creditors continued to weigh on the Euro. With the IMF pulling out of discussions, the risk of a dramatic end to the standoff between the Greek government and its creditors has now increased. As long as the Fed continues to indicate it is on track to raise rates in September, we are likely to see the US dollar remain a key haven for investors.

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ETF Securities Research team
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Signs of Slowing US Shale Output Lifts Crude

ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly Signs of Slowing US Shale Output Lifts Crude

Investors lock in profits as crude benchmarks rally.

Investors shed long copper exposure as price rebounds.

Soft US data prompts precious metal price recovery.

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After last week’s revelation that US consumer prices had tipped into deflation on an annual basis and retail sales surprised to the downside, investors will be monitoring US manufacturing and home sales data for continued signs of weakness. Any subpar data readings that reflect a moderation of US growth could delay market expectations of tightening and prove bullish for precious metals. In Europe, investor’s brace for a Greek default as signs emerge of deteriorating relations between the newly elected Syriza party and international creditors, calling into question Greece’s Eurozone membership.

Investors lock in profits as crude benchmarks rally. Investors withdrew US$52mn of funds from ETPs providing exposure to US crude this week as the price hit the highest level this year. Following a 25 week streak of inflows, long WTI ETPs have experienced the largest four weeks of outflows since 2010. ETFS Daily Leveraged WTI Crude Oil (LOIL) witnessed US$21.1mn of outflows, as US crude inventories grew by 1.3mn barrels, 2.7mn barrels below market expectations, indicating that US shale production may finally be declining in the face of recent price weakness. The weak inventory build corroborated an Energy Information Administration (EIA) report released earlier in the week that forecasted that US shale oil production would start to drop in May. Adding further to bullish sentiment was the withdrawal of government forces from oilfields in Yemen, reflecting a deteriorating internal situation which threatens the security of key oil transit routes. Going forward the price of crude will likely grind higher as shale output shows further signs of curbing and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated. The main downside risks to the price in the near term are US Dollar strength and the potential for onshore oil storage capacity to reach limits and force supply onto the market.

Investors shed long copper exposure as price rebounds. The price of copper has rebounded from January lows, driven in part by the recent pullback in the US Dollar and the reduction of the Chinese Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). Long copper ETPs saw US$14.2mn of redemptions as investors harvest profits from the recent price bounce. Following data that showed that China grew at the slowest pace in six years, policy makers are under intensifying pressure to support growth targets. Investors in the copper futures market have cut short positions from record highs as accommodative measures are likely to boost the red metal and sustain its recent strong performance.

Soft US data prompts precious metal price recovery. Recent weak retail sales and jobs data has relieved bearish pressure on the precious metals complex. Soft US data pushed back expectations of rate normalisation which weakened the Dollar and boosted precious metals, with gold and silver rising 0.8% and 1.0% respectively. Gold and silver ETPs benefited seeing a total of US$7.1mn of inflows.

Key events to watch this week. This week cyclical commodities are likely to be in focus following recent stimulus measures announced by Chinese authorities and the release of manufacturing data for US, China and Europe. In Europe, aside from Greek debt negotiations, the UK will be under the spotlight as the Bank of England (BOE) releases minutes from its April meeting and the general election draws closer.

Video Presentation

Joshpreet Tiwana, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

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ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

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Will the Federal Reserve become impatient?

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Will the Federal Reserve become impatient?

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Unabated crude oil inventory growth and lack of storage reverse prior week’s gains.

UK and mainland bourses diverge.

Patience could derail US Dollar rally.

Central bank activity will once again dominate markets this week. The US Federal Open Market Committee will convene this week with a post-meeting press conference. Removal of its promise to remain “patient” could be seen as a trigger to raise rates in June. The Swiss National Bank which has earned a reputation for surprising will also announce a rate decision this week. The removal of the FX floor in January has deepened deflation and a further rate cut appears warranted. Meanwhile the Bank of England will release minutes for its last meeting offering an insight into the central bank’s views.

Commodities

Unabated crude oil inventory growth and lack of storage reverse prior week’s gains. Despite US oil rigs being shut off at an unprecedented rate, oil inventories continue to grow. With the WTI curve in contango many traders have sought to put oil in storage to profit from an eventual spot price rebound. That had helped put a floor on prompt month WTI. However, with storage getting close to full capacity, the glut of oil is likely to enter the market and pull prices down. The EIA expects US oil stocks to continue to increase over coming months. Production cuts will need to accelerate to tighten supply and help prices increase. WTI and Brent fell 7.3% and 5.6% last week more than reversing the prior week’s gains. The USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates Report surprisingly downgraded expected wheat stocks for this year by 1 million bushels, pushing wheat prices almost 6% higher.

Equities

UK and mainland bourses diverge. The DAX and FTSE MIB continued their ascent as the European Central Bank began to prime the pumps of the euro area financial system with unprecedented amounts of quantitative easing. The mining and energy-heavy FTSE 100 was dragged lower by weak commodity prices. Meanwhile political jostling in the run-up to the UK General Election in May and the 2015 Budget this week has unsettled investors. The UK chancellor has promised to stick to austerity dimming hopes of any pre-election giveaways. Stronger than expected Chinese loan growth and rapidly expanding exports drove optimism in China’s domestic equity market, with the MSCI China A-Share index gaining 2.4%. Global equity market sentiment this week will be driven by the FOMC press conference. Any indication that the central bank is closer to tightening could trigger a broad sell-off.

Currencies

Patience could derail US Dollar rally. The US Dollar index reached the highest level in 12 years last week, alongside record speculative long positioning as the US economic recovery remains on track and investor expectations for tighter policy from the Fed contrast with those for other major central banks. The upcoming FOMC meeting will be a key gauge of the Fed’s willingness to support the economy – the risk for the USD rally is that the Fed remains patient about the timing of higher rates. Indeed, with softening US retail sales and manufacturing indicators recently, we expect that the USD will at least take a pause after the 11% gain in 2014. Meanwhile, European attention will be on the Swiss National Bank meeting, with deflation still threatening, the case for further action seems entirely justified. However, the SNB’s move to remove the EUR/CHF floor took the market by surprise and its negative rate policy has not delivered the expected results. Investors should expect more surprises from the SNB.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

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