Etikett: wti

Safe havens under the spotlight amid political uncertainties

Safe havens under the spotlight amid political uncertainties ETF SecuritiesSafe havens under the spotlight amid political uncertainties

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Safe havens under the spotlight amid political uncertainties

  • Strong inflows of US$141mn in gold ETPs amid political uncertainties driving market sentiment while improving auto sales triggered inflows in platinum ETPs.
  • Inflows in robotics themed ETFs in February rose to US$80mn as prices reach new highs every week.
  • US$22mn inflows in industrial metals ETPs as investors question Indonesia’s plans to relax the ban on ore exports.

Strong inflows into gold ETPs amid political uncertainties driving market sentiment. Gold ETPs recorded US$141mn inflows last week as gold prices rose 1.1% to nearly US$1,242/oz. We believe gold price will end this year at US$1,230/oz as central banks are taking a more aggressive tone on interest rates. Weaker US Dollar and low real rate environment could drive gold price higher to US$1,300/oz by the end of the first half of the year, potentially aided by a number of political events (Dutch, French and German elections).

Rising interest in the sectors of the future bodes well for robotics themed ETFs. Last week saw the third consecutive week of double-digit inflows into robotics ETFs as the underlying index rose 9% this year, reaching a new high every week in the year so far. Total inflows for February 2017 now stand at US$80mn, the largest monthly inflows since inception in October 2014.

Investors increase exposure to industrial metals as they question Indonesia’s plans to relax the ban on ore exports. The announcement made in January weighed on industrial metal prices as the lifting of the ban in place since 2014 would increase global supply. However, the impact will likely be limited as free shipments apply to companies that are already building processing plants and for a maximum of five years. Following the announcement, nickel prices initially fell by 8% before surging up again, triggering US$11mn inflows in nickel ETPs and US$22.5mn in industrial metals ETPs.

Precious metals with industrial applications also saw some traction amid increasing auto sales in most major economies. Platinum ETPs recorded US$8.7mn inflows last week as prices rose 1.7% on better-than-expected auto sales in most major economies. The volatility of the South African Rand combined with the ever-present potential for political upheaval will likely remain a headwind for the platinum group metals.

Oil ETPs recorded outflows for the third consecutive week as US oil production continues to recover. Last week saw US$31.4mn outflows from oil ETPs with investors mainly selling WTI crude while Brent ETPs recorded inflows of US$10mn. This reflects the traditional view of Brent being more affected by the decline in European oil fields and OPEC production policy while WTI is mainly driven by US oil production particularly US Shale oil. We believe that oil prices will remain under pressure in the near term as US oil production and inventories continue to increase.

Video Presentation

Edith Southammakosane, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team ETF Securities (UK) Limited T +44 (0) 207 448 4336 E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

Important Information

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This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).

This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.

The products discussed in this communication are issued by ETFS Commodity Securities Limited (”CSL”), ETFS Hedged Commodity Securities Limited (”HCSL”), ETFS Hedged Metal Securities Limited (”HMSL”), Swiss Commodity Securities Limited (”SCSL”), ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (”FXL”), ETFS Metal Securities Limited (”MSL”), ETFS Oil Securities Limited (”OSL”), ETFS Equity Securities Limited (”ESL”), Gold Bullion Securities Limited (”GBS” and, together with CSL, HCSL, HMSL, SCSL, FXL, MSL, OSL and ESL, the ”Issuers”) and GO UCITS ETF Solutions Plc (the ”Company ”). Each Issuer (apart from SCSL) is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. The Company is an open-ended investment company with variable capital having segregated liability between its sub-funds (each a ”Fund”) and is organised under the laws of Ireland. The Company is regulated, and has been authorised as a UCITS by the Central Bank of Ireland (the ”Financial Regulator”) pursuant to the European Communities (Undertaking for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations, 2003 (as amended). Italy: When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited. Switzerland: In Switzerland, this communication is only intended for Regulated Qualified Investors. US: This communication is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof, where none of the Issuers, the Company or any securities issued by them are authorised or registered for distribution and where no prospectus for any of the Issuers or the Company has been filed with any securities commission or regulatory authority. Neither this communication nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. Neither the Issuers, the Company nor any securities issued by them have been or will be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933 or the Investment Company Act of 1940 or qualified under any applicable state securities statutes. This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Any historical performance included in this communication may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this communication solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance. Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance. The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities nor shall any securities be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchaser or sale would be unlawful under the securities law of such jurisdiction. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

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Securities issued by the Issuers and the Company may be structured products involving a significant degree of risk and may not be suitable for all types of investor. This communication is aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant Issuer or the Company which includes, inter alia, information on certain risks associated with an investment. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may be priced in US Dollars, Euros, or Sterling, and the value of the investment in other currencies will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities of the Issuers or the shares of the Company which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in the securities offered by the Issuers and the Company. The relevant prospectus for each Issuer and the Company may be obtained from www.etfsecurities.com. Please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Issuers

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Oljepriset darrar när OPEC misslyckas att nå samförstånd

Oljepriset darrar när OPEC misslyckas att nå samförstånd

De börshandlade fonder till exempel United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO) och United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSEArca: BNO), som replikerar oljepriset halkade något efter det att the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, i förra veckan misslyckades med att kommer överens om ett produktionstak och att Iran meddelade att landet planerar att pumpa upp ännu mera råolja. Oljepriset darrar när OPEC misslyckas att nå samförstånd.

Vissa medlemmar i OPEC försökte att sätta ett nytt kollektiv produktionstak i ett försök att stödja priserna, men detta till trots avslutades torsdagens möte utan att någon ny politik eller ett nytt produktionstak men med ett visst motstånd från Iran.

Saudiarabien försökte mildra effekten och lovade att inte översvämma marknaden med olja. Saudiarabiens nya energiminister, Khalid al-Falih, sade till nyhetsbyrån Reuters att landet kommer att vara mycket försiktigt i sin strategi och se till att inte chocka marknaden på något sätt. Han säger att det finns ingen anledning att förvänta sig att Saudiarabien kommer att delta i en kampanj som kommer att översvämma marknaderna med råolja.

Saudiarabien har tidigare sagt att det skulle bli et produktionstak om Iran var villigt att komma överens om att stävja utgången. Emellertid har Teheran hävdat att Iran bör tillåtas att öka produktionen till tidigare nivåer, före införandet av de västerländska sanktionerna för Irans kärnenergiprogram, och valde istället att argumentera för enskilda länder produktionskvoter.

Marknadsbedömarna tror följaktligen tror att oförmågan att nå en överenskommelse återspeglar de politiska skillnader som undergräver organisationen, särskilt mellan sunni-ledda länder och den shiitiska islamiska republiken.

Detta är på kort sikt negativt för oljepriset, men det är också viktigt att komma ihåg att saudierna inte planerar att översvämma marknaden. Dessutom har fundamenta förbättrats för energimarknaden. Bland annat har länder som Indien och USA, båda stora konsumenter, sett en ökad efterfrågan på olja. På utbudssidan har den amerikanska skifferproduktion fallit bort som svar på de kollapsade priser, och producenter som Nigeria och Kanada har upplevt störningar i sin produktion.

United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO)

Investeringen syftar till att återspegla resultatet, minus kostnader, av spotpriset på West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil. Fonden kommer att investera i terminskontrakt för light, sweet crude oil, andra typer av råolja , diesel-eldningsolja , bensin, naturgas och andra petroleumbaserade bränslen som handlas på NYMEX, ICE Futures Exchange eller andra USA och utländska börser.

 

Fallande oljelager gör att oljefond handlas till högsta nivån på sju månader

Fallande oljelager gör att oljefond handlas till högsta nivån på sju månader

Under förra veckan handlades energipriserna högre och vi såg oljan gå upp, vi såg fallande oljelager och hur oljepriset steg över 50 USD per fat. Sedan dess har emellertid oljepriset backat ned under 50 USD per fat igen.

Fallande oljelager gör att oljefonderna handlas till högsta nivån på sju månader och hur dessa nu har stigit över den långsiktiga trendlinjen. Detta gäller framförallt de börshandlade fonder som investerar i olja, till exempel United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO), som spårar priset på WTI, West Texas Intermediate, och US Brent Oil Fund (NYSEArca: BNO), som replikerar utvecklingen av Brent Crude. USO steg från sitt motstånd på 200 dagars glidande medelvärde under det att BNO redan har handlats över sin långsiktiga trendlinje under en tid. Sedan årets början har nu USP stigit med 7,5 procent och BNO med 22,3 procent.

Oljepriset studsade upp efter lagersiffra

Priset på råolja steg efter det att EIA, Energy Information Administration, rapporterade att de amerikanska oljelagren minskade med 4,23 miljoner fat, mer är två gånger mer än vad analytikerna förväntade sig. Samtidigt såg vi hur den amerikanska oljeproduktionen minskade för elfte veckan i rad, vilket gör att den nu är nere på sin lägsta nivå sedan september 2014, något som stödjer fortsatt låga oljelager i USA. Den senaste statistiken visade att den amerikanska produktionen av olja föll med 24 000 fat, ned till 8 770 000 fat per dag. Samtidigt visade den att antalet aktiva oljeplattformar i USA var oförändrat på 318 stycken vilket emellertid är den lägsta nivån sedan oktober 2009.

Flera förvaltare tror emellertid att marknaden inte är riktigt redo för ett oljepris över 50 USD per fat ännu, utan att den vill se en ihållande nedgång av oljelagren innan steget över 50 dollar per fat tas. Visserligen börjar nedgången i antalet aktiva oljeplattformar i USA återspeglas i oljelagren men samtidigt är det många av världens största oljeproducenter som pumpar upp rekordhöga nivåer olja, framförallt OPEC som gör att gör att upprätthålla Saudiarabiens strategi att klämma ut högkostnadskonkurrenter från oljemarknaden.

Oljepriset

Pris på olja, både på WTI och Brent. Du kan se det aktuella priset på WTI- och Brent-olja, samt hur det oljepriset har utvecklats över olika tidsperioder. Överst visas WTI-priset och under det Brent-priset.

WTI (West Texas Intermediate), även känd som Texas Light Sweet, är den typ av olja som oftast används som riktmärke för prissättning av olja. WTI handlas i New York. Brent är den typ av olja som är vanligast i Europa. Oljefutures går till leverans varje månad året om. Olja handlas bland annat på New York Mercantile Exchange under tickersymbolen CL (avser Light Sweet Crude Oil) och huvudkontraktet prissätts i USD och cent per fat.

Gold dominates inflows as risk appetite wanes

Gold dominates inflows as risk appetite wanes

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Gold dominates inflows as risk appetite wanes

  • Investor demand for gold ETPs resilient amidst fragile risk appetite
  • Profit-taking continues for crude oil ETPs despite higher prices, led by WTI products
  • Industrial metals ETPs face outflows as risk appetite wanes

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Gold ETP inflows dominate flows, totalling US$29.9mn. Gold prices ended the week lower by -2% as a weaker dollar and higher US retail sales offered signs for the Federal Reserve to revisit its dot plot. However investor demand for gold ETPs was resilient as risk appetite remained fragile. Data from the world gold council (WGC) highlighted global gold demand for the Q12016 marked the 2nd highest quarterly figure ever, up 21% y-o-y, backed by rising demand for ETFs, coins and bars. While demand for jewellery remained weak, we expect this trend to reverse as jewellery demand from China and India garners momentum as we progress into the year. European new car registrations are up 9.1% y-o-y in lock step with US and China, and should help buoy platinum and palladium prices known for their use in autocatalysts.

Tighter market situation for soybeans draws inflows into Agriculture ETPs. Inflows into broad basket agricultural ETPs hit US$22.9mn, marking its highest level since August 2015. This suggests a broad based interest in the asset class on the back of strong price gains among major agricultural commodities – soybeans, sugar and coffee. Soybean prices rose to a 21-month high subsequent to the release of a favourable report by US Department of Agriculture (USDA) that predicted a global inventory reduction of 3.8mn tons due to lower production caused by crop shortfalls in Argentina and Brazil. In addition a 33% annual rise in soybean imports by China helped support prices. Sugar prices surged 6.8% close to its 20-month high supported by reports of unfavourable weather conditions in Brazil and India and a strong Brazilian real.

Negative sentiment pushes industrial metal ETP outflows to US$67.5mn, their highest level since October 2014. Four of the bottom 5 performers this week were industrial metals. A firmer US dollar coupled with negative sentiment emanating from weaker global equity markets led to outflows from industrial metal ETPs. Although Chinese copper imports were 21% lower since the prior month, we believe the recent plans by the Chinese government to invest CNY 5tn in transport infrastructure over the course of three years bodes well for prices. While capex declines in most regions will see production decline, Rio Tinto laid out plans to double production by 500,000 tons in its Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia by 2027; making it the world’s third largest copper mine. Production expansion in such regions could weigh on prices.

Profit taking in oil ETPs result in the fifth consecutive week of outflows in the energy sector. The US Energy Information Agency (EIA) remains bent on its production forecast of a decline by 860,000bpd in the current year. Temporary supply outages in Canada and Nigeria are helping to absorb the excess supply in the market at present. The ongoing decline in US drilling activity in 15 of the last 16 weeks has led to a decline in US oil production (at 8.8mn bpd, it is the lowest since September 2014). Oil prices soared on the back of US inventory data; nonetheless investors appeared unwilling to hold onto gains as volatility remained elevated.

Key events to watch this week. Inflation data from the US this Tuesday will provide clues of the possibility of a rate hike by the Fed in June. Wednesday sees the release of Q1 GDP figures by Japan and expectations are for expansion this quarter.

Video Presentation

Aneeka Gupta, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Varför investerarna har blivit negativa till råolja

Varför investerarna har blivit negativa till råolja

USA Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO), som följer priset på West Texas Intermediate råoljeterminer, och USA Brent Oil Fund (NYSEArca: BNO), som följer priset på Brent råoljeterminer, är upp i genomsnitt mer än 28 procent under det senaste kvartalet. Det är fortfarande inte tillräckligt för att imponera alla oljemarknadsaktörer. Varför investerarna har blivit negativa till råolja

Faktum är att vissa oljemarknadsbedömare är oroliga för att denna råvara är utsatt för form av nedskärningar som kunde skicka ned oljepriset under 40 dollar per fat. Det finns gott om faktorer att tänka på innan man kommer fram till slutsatsen att olja och de börshandlade produkter som replikerar oljepriset helt saknar koppling till verkligheten. Tidigare denna månad misslyckades Saudiarabien och Iran med att finna en gemensam grund under samtalen om att frysa oljeproduktionen i Doha, Qatar.

Oljepriset har backat med mer än fem (5) procent sedan sin toppnotering 2016, något som förklaras av att oljehandlarna har börjat ifrågasätta styrkan i oljerallyt. Energipriserna studsade från februari dalar på vissa globala leveransproblem och förväntningar på ett fall i den amerikanska produktionen. Det finns just nu en stor skepsis när det gäller grundsynen på oljeprisets utveckling, vilket bland annat understryks av att många av de största producenterna utanför USA inte vill minska sin produktion. Även i USA har produktionsminskningarna varit små. Den goda nyheten är emellertid att den amerikanska skifferproduktionen har minskat något, men det hjälper föga när OPEC producerar så pass mycket.

Det omsätts mer än 100 gånger den dagliga produktionen

På kort sikt är det endast spekulationer som kan driva oljepriset, efter detta är det fundamenta som styr och de talar inte för en långsiktig uppgång för oljan. Omfattningen av spekulation är enorm, den dagliga produktionen av olja i USA uppgår till 9 miljoner fat per dag, och det omsätts derivatkontrakt för nästan en miljard fat varje dag.

Oljeprisets återhämtning är än mer imponerande mot bakgrund av att fortsatt låga oljepriser, inga produktionsminskningar av betydelse och massiva kostnadsbesparingar från de stora oljebolagen. De globala oljebolagen har dragit åt svångremmen, och minskat sina kostnader genom att säga upp tusentals anställda och lägga nya projekt i malpåse.

De stora integrerade oljebolagen förväntas klara sig bättre än de mindre prospekteringsbolagen, eftersom de globala jättarna har såväl produktion som prospektering och efterföljande raffinering. Det är emellertid värt att notera att oljeproducenterna endast har prissäkrat 36 procent av sin produktion 2016, att jämföra med mer än 50 procent under 2015. De kommer att behöva sälja denna oavsett vad priset ligger, det är alltså lätt att se varför investerarna har blivit negativa till råolja.

Oljepriset