Focusing on Gold’s Resilient Base

Gold and Precious Metals – Focusing on Gold’s Resilient Base

Gold Trended Higher Early, But Ended April Slightly Down as Dollar Strengthened

Gold trended higher in early April due to trade tensions between the U.S. and China, prospects of airstrikes on Syria, and heightened inflation expectations following a higher than expected March Producers Price Index (PPI)1 and a 2.1% annual rise in the core Consumer Price Index2. Gold topped at $1,365 per ounce on April 11. This level has been the proverbial price ceiling for gold since 2014. Gold subsequently moved lower as a number of generally positive economic releases enabled the U.S. dollar to trend to its high for the year on May 1. Gold was also pressured by real rates that moved higher with U.S. Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year Treasury surpassed 3% for the first time since 2013. For the month, gold incurred a small loss of $9.65 (0.7%) to finish at $1,315.35 per ounce.

Despite No Surprises in Earnings, Gold Stocks With Small Gains

While there was a lack of positive surprises in first quarter earnings, gold stocks were still able to eke out gains as the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR)3 rose 1.7% and the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR)4 advanced 1.8%.

Gold’s Resilient Price Floor Has Been Rising Since 2015; Likely to Be Tested Again

While $1,365 per ounce has been the ceiling for the gold price, the floor has been rising consistently since 2015 in a positive trend of higher lows. The base of this trend is currently around the $1,285 per ounce level. As expectations for a June 12 Fed rate increase mount, gold might test the trend’s base in the coming month. Given the resilience the gold price has shown amid concerns over geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and inflation, we would be surprised to see gold fall below this level. Perhaps gold will take another run at $1,365 in the second half of 2018.

Response to Earnings Highlights Lack of Interest in Gold Stocks

A lack of interest in gold stocks over the past year has caused them to fall short of performance expectations, which we highlighted anecdotally in our March commentary. In an April report, RBC Capital Markets was able to quantify this by looking at performance following earnings beats and misses over the last five years. They found that the sustainability of gains from earnings beats has declined in the last two years. Meanwhile, losses on earnings misses have gotten much worse in the last 1-2 years and the loss is sustained over a longer period. RBC also found that the value traded per day in 2018 is at levels last seen at the end of the bear market in 2015, when gold bottomed at $1,050. This points to a lack of buying interest. Absent are those momentum players that follow the winners who beat and value players that pick up the losers who miss. While this lack of interest sounds negative, we are excited by the opportunity it presents. We believe gold equities are undervalued, and the companies are fundamentally sound. A spark that moves the gold price through its $1,365 ceiling may rekindle interest in the miners.

“Gold is Where You Find It”

According to an old prospector saying, “Gold is where you find it”. Many of the companies we follow have found it in very out-of-the-way places. Not next to a highway in Ohio, but near a glacier in British Columbia, in the Atacama desert at 14,000 feet altitude, or 10,000 feet underground in South Africa. Companies must be skilled at building infrastructure in these remote areas.

Understanding Geopolitical Risk

Gold is also often found in places with geopolitical risk. In order to invest in a company, we must be convinced geopolitical risk can be mitigated, if not eliminated by management. Geopolitical risk comes in various forms at the national, state/provincial, and local levels. The most common risks at the national level are changes in taxes or royalties and import/export restrictions. At the state/provincial level, there are risks of legislation that might make mining prohibitively expensive. At the local level, disgruntled groups may blockade an operation and unions sometimes engage in work stoppages. These risks tend to be higher in emerging or frontier countries; however, developed countries are not immune. For example, the largest open pit gold operation in Ontario, Canada has delayed expansion plans to 2026 due to a lack of support from a local Aboriginal community.

Conversely, places assumed to be politically risky to a generalist may, in reality, be very favorable mining jurisdictions. The West African nation of Burkina Faso is one of the best places to build a mine. The gold industry is growing and exciting discoveries are being found. The permitting process is straightforward and efficient. A mining culture has developed, and materials and supplies are becoming more available. While the general election in 2015 was not without drama, in the end there was a peaceful transfer of power. The gold industry is a significant part of the Burkina economy that no leader wants to disrupt.

Argentina and the Impact of Geopolitics on Gold Projects

One of our more successful investments historically was Andean Resources. In 2007, Andean discovered high-grade veins on the Cerro Negro property in Santa Cruz Province of southern Argentina, a part of Patagonia. By 2010, Andean had delineated a 2.5 million ounce reserve, and the company was sold to Goldcorp, Inc. (2.9% of Fund net assets*) for $3.4 billion. The stock gained 1,800% from our first investment in 2007 to the 2010 acquisition. By 2010 it became obvious that the administration of former president Cristina Elisabet Fernández de Kirchner was driving the Argentinian economy into a ditch. The last geopolitical straw came in 2011, when exchange controls were announced and we began to avoid the country due to its growing hostility towards mining and other business.

We took a renewed interest in Argentina in 2015 with the election of Mauricio Macri. President Macri has invigorated business by unwinding exchange controls, export duties, capital restrictions, and many other impediments left from 12 years of Kirchner rule. This year we returned to Argentina to visit gold properties and assess the geopolitical climate. Cerro Negro is now one of Goldcorp’s core operations, producing 452,000 ounces in 2017 with a reserve of 4.9 million ounces. The Macri Administration eliminated a tax on reserves that had essentially stopped exploration spending. Goldcorp started drilling again, and they were proud to show off the Silica Cap discovery. Silica Cap is a vein system that we estimate could bring over 2 million ounces into the reserve.

Photo courtesy of Joe Foster. Drilling the Silica Cap system. Silica Cap outcrops visible as dark patches on skyline.

Another highlight of the trip was Yamana Gold’s (2.7% of Fund net assets*) Cerro Morro project, also a high-grade vein system that aims to start production in May. Yamana was able to draw on its expertise from similar operations in Chile and Mexico. We expect to see a smooth start-up that ramps to 180,000 ounces of gold and 7 million ounces of silver annually.

Yamana and Goldcorp have assets across the Americas, so their exposure to Argentina is limited. While we were pleased with the progress companies are making, there are still concerns that keep us from investing in a pure play in Argentina. Unions continue to exert extraordinary power. They are involved in many aspects of planning and decision-making at the mine level. Work stoppages are not uncommon, sometimes for reasons unrelated to mining that are beyond the control of management. Provincial rules can differ widely. Across the border in Chubut Province, open pit mining and the use of cyanide is banned, which is effectively a ban on gold mining. Inflation is running at 25%, and it remains to be seen if the central bank can bring it back to acceptable levels. Mary Anastasia O’Grady of the Wall Street Journal leads an April op-ed with: “Are Argentines ready to throw off the yoke of peronista populism, thuggery, and politics by roadblock that has destroyed their nation, and to rebuild the free republic of the 19th century?” If Macri can maintain popularity into the December 2019 elections while continuing reforms and taming inflation, then perhaps Argentina again becomes an investment destination for us.

by Joe Foster, Portfolio Manager and Strategist

With more than 30 years of gold industry experience, Foster began his gold career as a boots on the ground geologist, evaluating mining exploration and development projects. Foster is Portfolio Manager and Strategist for the Gold and Precious Metals strategy.

Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE

*All company weightings, if mentioned, are as of April 30, 2018, unless otherwise noted

1The Producer Price index (PPI) is a family of indexes that measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services over time.

2The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them.

3NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold.

4MVIS® Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) is a rules-based, modified market capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted index comprised of a global universe of publicly traded small- and medium-capitalization companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from gold and/or silver mining, hold real property that has the potential to produce at least 50% of the company’s revenue from gold or silver mining when developed, or primarily invest in gold or silver.

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Argentisk ETF leder utvecklingen i Latinamerika

Det är inte bara emerging markets som har haft en stark utveckling under 2017. Detta gällde även Latinamerika vars länder till viss del kategoriseras som emerging markets, men också som frontier markets. Det är en argentisk ETF leder utvecklingen i Latinamerika. Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (NYSEArca: ARGT) var årets stora vinnare, med en uppgång om cirka 54 procent i USD.

Även andra latinamerikanska länder utvecklades väl, till exempel Chile. iShares MSCI Chile Capped ETF (NYSEArca: ECH) steg med 38 procent under året. Den peruanska ekonomin som precis som Chiles är starkt påverkad av råvaror var även den en vinnare. iShares MSCI All Peru Capped ETF (NYSEArca: EPU) steg med 23 procent under 2017.

En annan fond med fokus på Argentina

iShares MSCI Argentina and Global Exposure ETF (BATS: AGT) är en annan börshandlad fond med fokus på Argentinas aktiemarknad. En annan argentisk ETF helt enkelt. Under 2017 steg denna ETF med 21 procent. Dett var marginellt bättre än vad den mycket populära iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (NYSEArca: EWZ) mäktade med. Den börshandlade fonden EWZ gav en värdeökning i USD på 20,8 procent.

Trots att Mexiko drabbades negativt av förhandlingar om NAFTA och en växande politisk skandal så steg landets aktiemarknad. iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF (NYSEArca: EWW) hade ett tufft andra halvår, men steg ändå med mer än 10 procent under 2017. Det var få som trodde att Mexikos börs skulle stiga under 2017 efter det att resultaten för det amerikanska presidentvalet presenterades, än mindre att denna börshandlade fond skulle gå så pass bra.

A closer look at emerging market equities

ETF Securities Portfolio Insights: A closer look at emerging market equities

Summary

Global equities have been rallying in 2017, led by Asian emerging countries and North America to a lesser extent.
The IMF expects Asian economies to continue to drive global growth while central banks in advanced economies are gradually reducing their financial support.
We believe US equities are overvalued and see greater opportunities within Latin American and Asian equities for 2018.

Global equities have been rallying since the end of 2016 as strong economic data from major advanced and developing countries combined with a decline in perceived political uncertainty has led to a surge of optimism on the global financial market. Extremely accommodative monetary policies in place since the great financial crisis are bearing fruit. 2018 will likely see these accommodative policies gradually dismantled, opening the path to new investment opportunities.

2017 performance

This year has seen global equities rallying since November 2016 as market participants are more confident that global economic growth has returned and will continue. While few risks remain, with the Italian election next year and the ongoing fight against terrorism and North Korea, the populist threat seen in 2016 has faded away. Unemployment is near its lowest in the US and UK with central banks now focussing on dismantling quantitative easing and tackling the inflation issue.

Looking at 2017 performance so far, the MSCI AC World index rose by 22%, driven by the rally of emerging markets (EM) and more specifically, emerging countries from Asia (39%). The developed markets (DM) with North America come second at 19.5%, followed by emerging Latin America at 18.5%. While one would expect volatility to pick up, 2017 saw the market volatility index (VIX) at its lowest level ever, at 9.6 on average, compared to 20 its historical average, suggesting that investors could increase their allocation to equities almost risk free.

Of the top 20 performers, 75% are emerging market countries. Argentina is leading the board with 62.6% year-to-date while China comes fourth (52%) and India eleventh (25.7%).

In its October World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated global growth at 3.6% in 2017 and 3.7% in 2018 from 3.2% in 2016 driven by rising industrial activities and business and consumer confidence. Global growth will be mainly driven by EM countries projected at 4.6% in 2017 and 4.9% in 2018. China GDP has been revised upward by 0.2% compared to April, at 6.8% in 2017 and 6.5% in 2018 while India GDP for 2017 was revised down from 7.2% to 6.7%. In Latin America, Argentina is expected to rebound after last year’s recession with growth projected at 2.5% for 2017 and 2018 as consumption and investment recover.

What are the ratios saying?

The cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio (CAPE) of DM over EM shows that developing countries remain attractive from a valuation point of view. Whilst the MSCI Emerging Market index has returned 30% year-to-date, the below chart suggests there is still scope for further gains in 2018.

In the following chart, the Latin American countries Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Chile, appear to be the most undervalued. Despite prices for these countries rising by 23% on average, the CAPE ratio remains below their respective historical averages driven by lower-than-average real earnings. However, all except Chile saw their real earnings growing this year in absolute terms, suggesting further potential catch-up of their earnings in the near term.

At the other end of the spectrum, US, Japan and few European countries are considered as overvalued. The CAPE ratio for each stands above their historical level due to real earnings having already catched up with its respective historical level and price rally. Further gains would be more difficult to justify.

A closer look at China

Xi Jinping came out of the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party stronger than ever. Elevated to the same level as Mao Zedong, the president of the Republic of China has been given more power than any of his contemporary predecessors and with no one in its close committee potentially qualified to replace him in five years. With Xi having a history of stalling reform, we may see the implementation of short term stimulus, as opposed to long term structural reforms, continue. This should be positive for Chinese equities as the country focuses on sustainable growth, attracting foreign investment and remaining the largest consumers of commodities to meet the need of its economy and population. The outcome has initially been positively received as the MSCI China Index gained 8% one month following the Congress before declining recently as Chinese economic activities continue to show signs of a mild slowdown.

The above chart shows that China CAPE ratio currently stands above its historical level, suggesting that Chinese equities are overvalued. However, the surge of the MSCI China Index price level has been the main driver of the increase in the CAPE ratio. The index real earnings per share have been below its historical average over the past two years but are gradually recovering toward its mean since the beginning of the year. This picture combined with the potential decade length investiture of the “Strongman” suggests further potential upside for Chinese equities in the medium term.

Non-resident capital inflows in EM, mainly China, reached a bottom in 2015, according to the IMF, on concerns over the impact the US taper tantrum could have on EM asset prices and the potential depreciation of the Yuan. Inflows have revived since but is still half of the volume seen at its peak in Q1 2013. The recovery of investor sentiment regarding the global economy should see capital inflows in EM assets increase further in 2018.

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Argentina Rejoins Index and Boosts Yield

Emerging Markets Bonds – Argentina Rejoins Index and Boosts Yield

In a somewhat accelerated fashion, Argentina recently became eligible for inclusion in the J.P. Morgan suite of GBI-EM indices. This follows a series of measures that have been implemented to facilitate foreign investor access to local government bond and currency markets. As a result, several Argentine peso-(ARS) denominated bonds were added to the J.P. Morgan suite of GBI-EM indices on February 28. The eye-popping aspect of the ARS bonds is their high yields, which are yield between 13.4% and 14.4% as of February 28. Argentina now represents approximately 3% of the GBI-EM Global Core Index (GBIEMCOR), and the net effect of its addition was more than 20 basis point boost in the overall yield of the Index to 6.75%.

Argentina Debt Boasts Substantial Yields

10-Year Local Currency Sovereign Bond Yields (%) As of 2/28/2017

Source: FactSet as of 2/28/2017. All performance quoted represents past performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Argentina’s Low Correlation May Provide Portfolio Diversification

A more interesting aspect of the ARS inclusion may be the effect of the political and economic dynamics of Argentina on the country’s foreign exchange rate. In short, since the ARS was liberalized at the end of 2015, it has exhibited an extremely low correlation to the J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Global Core Index coming in at 0.07 for the 14 months ending February 28, 2017 – making it an attractive from a diversification standpoint. It is likely, however, that by its very inclusion in the GBI-EM indices, the consequential impact on flows may increase the ARS correlation. However other currencies which are excluded from the tradeable and most benchmarked indices, such as the Indian rupee (INR) and the Chinese yuan (CNY), have shown much higher correlations than the ARS, as shown below (0.54 and 0.52 versus the GBI-EM Global Core Index).

We expect that Argentina’s net effect on the J.P. Morgan investable benchmarks to be, as a consequence, both additional yield and greater diversification.

Currency Correlations

January 1, 2016 – February 28, 2017

ARS – Argentine peso, BRL – Brazilian real, MXN – Mexican peso, RUB – Russian ruble, PLN – Polish zloty, DXY – U.S. Dollar Index, INR – Indian rupee, CNY – Chinese yuan. GBIEMCOR represents the J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Global Core Index, which is comprised of bonds issued by emerging market governments and denominated in the local currency of the issuer.

Important Definitions and Disclosures

Sources of all data: FactSet, J.P. Morgan, and BofA Merrill Lynch. All data as of 2/28/2017.

Correlation measures the degree to which two securities move in relation to each other.

DXY represents the U.S. Dollar Index, which indicates the general international value of the USD. The index represents an average of the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies.

GBIEMCOR represents the J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Global Core Index, which is comprised of bonds issued by emerging market governments and denominated in the local currency of the issuer.

Indexes are unmanaged and are not securities in which an investment can be made. Index returns are not representative of Fund Returns. For fund returns current to the most recent month-end, visit vaneck.com.

Fran Rodilosso Head of Fixed Income ETF Portfolio Management
Portfolio Manager for Fixed Income ETFs
Oversees the Fixed Income ETF team; responsible for portfolio strategies, as well as credit and market analysis; specializes in international bond markets
Investment Management Team member since 2012
Prior to joining VanEck, Managing Director of Global Emerging Markets with The Seaport Group; launched the firm’s emerging markets fixed income sales and trading business
Previously held portfolio management positions at Greylock Capital and Soundbrook Capital; focused on corporate high-yield and distressed bonds with an emphasis on emerging markets
Earlier career experience includes senior fixed income trading positions at Credit Lyonnais and HSBC
Quoted in Financial Times, Barron’s, and ETF Trends, among others
CFA charterholder; member of New York Society of Security Analysts
MBA (with distinction), Finance, The Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania; AB, History, Princeton University

Besvikelse för vietnamesisk aktiefond

Besvikelse för vietnamesisk aktiefond. De vietnamesiska aktierna, och den börshandlade fond, VanEck Vectors Vietnam ETF (NYSE: VNM), som replikerar utvecklingen av Vietnams aktiemarknad, noterade en viss besvikelse under förra veckan när indexleverantören MSCI uppgraderade Pakistan till tillväxtmarknadsstatus. Vietnam har länge suktat efter att uppgraderas till emerging market så det var en besvikelse för den vietnamesisk aktiefond som finns att handla i form av en ETF. Vietnam hamnade inte ens på listan över länder som MSCI överväger att revidera upp. Det enda landet som MSCI uppmärksammade på denna lista var Argentina.

MSCIs syn på Vietnamn speglar investerarnas frustration över det sydostasiatiska landets ekonomi. Sedan årets början har VNM backat med mer än två procentenheter, medan iShares MSCI Frontier Markets ETF (NYSE: FM) en börshandlad fond som bland annat omfattar vietnamesiska aktier har stigit med 0,4 procent.

Har inte överträffat FM

Under åren 2012 till och med 2015 har VNM endast utvecklats bättre än FM vid ett enda tillfälle, 2014. Det finns emellertid de som tror att VNM kan vända denna trend och som säger att taktiska investerare som söker landspecifik exponering kan belönas om de investerar i Vietnam under de kommande åren.

Femårsplaner som kommer från tillväxtmarknadsekonomier får i allmänhet endast uppmärksamhet om de kommer från Kina. Det betyder emellertid inte att investerare skall strunta i den femårsplan som Hanoi nyligen publicerade. En av de viktigaste detaljerna i denna prognos är målet att Vietnam skall ha en BNP-tillväxt på mellan 6,5 till 7,0 procent fram till och med 2020.

Under det senaste årtiondet har Vietnam blivit en allt viktigare aktör i Asien och Stilla Havsområdet, och landet har kommit att fungera som en viktig motvikt till närbelägna kinesiska territoriella anspråk, särskilt i Sydkinesiska havet. Detta kan vara den främsta anledningen till president Obama lyfte USA embargo mot försäljning av militär utrustning till landet den 23 maj säger VanEck i en ny analys. Vietnams ekonomi har upplevt betydande tillväxt, landets årliga BNP-tillväxt ligger i genomsnitt på 6,49 % från 2000 till 2015. På kvartalsbasis nådde det en all-time high på 8,46 % under det fjärde kvartalet 2007.

Precis som i fallet med Kina och landets A-Shares har Vietnam en del arbete med öppenhet och utländskt ägande innan landet kan uppgraderas från frontier market till emerging market. Landet befinner sig emellertid på rätt spår.

Den vietnamesiska aktiemarknaden har sett tillväxt under perioden 2007 till och med 2015. Denna trend kan fortsätta som finansministeriet försöker minska kostnaderna för investerare och ge tillgång till kapital för blivande företag genom att kombinera den small-cap-orienterade Hanoibörsen med sitt större syskon baserat i Ho Chi Minh City tillägger VanEck. Det är emellertid viktigt att komma ihåg att det är liten marknad totalt sett. Det sammanlagda börsvärdet för börserna i Vietnam ligger på cirka 60,4 miljarder dollar, i samma storlek som American Express.