Etikett: BOE

Weak Chinese PMI trigger global panic and market sell off

ETF Securities Weak Chinese PMI trigger global panic and market sell offWeak Chinese PMI trigger global panic and market sell off

Commodity ETP Weekly – Weak Chinese PMI trigger global panic and market sell off

Highlights

Lower oil prices drive further inflows into oil ETPs.
Global stock market sell-off benefitted gold.
2016 a turning point for commodities?

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  • Weak Chinese  PMI trigger a market sell off early last week affecting stocks and commodities with oil falling to an 11-year low while gold rose more than 4%.
  • Oil ETPs saw inflows last week, adding to last year’s strong inflows. Oil ETPs attracted the largest inflows across commodity complex last year after oil prices dropped 33% in 2015 and drove bargain-hunting.
  • Gold and broad commodity ETPs also recorded inflows as investors rebalanced their exposure out of equities and into safe haven assets such as gold.

Lower oil prices drive further inflows into oil ETPs. Oil prices fell to an 11-year low after Chinese Caixin Manufacturing and Service PMIs released last Monday renewed pessimism about China’s growth prospects and demand for natural resources this year. Last week, Brent fell to US$33.75/bbl (-9.5%) and WTI fell to US$33.27/bbl (-10.2%). Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran underpinned oil prices very briefly on Monday but was soon overcome by the rout in global equity markets. The decline in US oil inventories last week seemed to have gone completely unnoticed, with the market focused on the broader cyclical sell-off. Despite last week’s inventory decline, US oil stocks remain significantly above its historical average and the global supply glut in oil continues to weigh on prices. However, the prospect of a price recovery in the medium term remains the general consensus. Oil ETPs recorded inflows of US$43mn last week after a year of strong inflows of US$1.46bn, the largest across ETF Securities commodity ETPs.

Global stock market sell-off benefitted gold. Gold maintained its safe-haven status in the opening week of 2016. Chinese stock exchanges were forced to halt trading several times over the past week, triggering a more general panic across global asset markets. The panic led to gold prices rising 4.4% and gold ETPs witnessed net inflows of US$11.1mn, the largest inflows since mid-November. Last year gold ETPs recorded outflows of US$1.26bn, the largest across the commodity complex, as a strong US dollar and rate rises weighed on the price of the metal. By Friday, gold prices eventually pared back some of its gains on the hopes that the suspension of China’s circuit breaker rules would calm the market. Strong US non-farm payroll released on Friday may also add further downward pressure to the yellow metal this week.

2016 a turning point for commodities? While commodities will remain affected by the excessively negative sentiment around China, we believe USD strength will wane this year, removing one of the weights on commodity prices with gold the main beneficiary. Oil should progressively recover as weak prices become economically unsustainable for the OPEC countries. Mining capex and production cuts should bite into supply, providing an upward pressure to some metal prices. Last week saw inflows of US$18.9mn into broad commodity ETPs, marking the third consecutive week of inflows into broad baskets. Broad commodity baskets saw a total of US$232.2mn inflows in 2015.

Key events to watch this week. The Bank of England (BoE) meeting on Thursday will reveal whether the BoE will follow the Fed and increase interest rates. Historically the BoE has increased rates 6 months on average after the Fed. Commodity prices are likely to remain volatile, especially after the release of Wednesdays’ Chinese trade data.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

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Eurozone Deal Remains Elusive

Eurozone Deal Remains Elusive

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Eurozone Deal Remains Elusive

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Coffee rebounds following Brazilian Real appreciation.

Chinese stocks cheer signs of further stimulus.

Sterling comes under pressure on inflation concerns.

Today Angela Merkel will host talks with Alex Tsipras, the Greek premier, in a bid to improve relations between the two nations and ensure the future of Greece within the Eurozone. The meeting comes as recent negotiations over the conditions of a Greek bailout package have divided public opinion and strained political ties. Elsewhere, the release of a series of manufacturing and home sales data this week will give investors the opportunity to gauge the health of major global economies. CPI data from the US and the UK will give clarity on the impact of low energy and food prices on inflation and the potential pace of rate hikes.

Commodities

Coffee rebounds following Brazilian Real appreciation. Coffee prices have come under significant pressure this year, falling 24% to US$1.26 per pound last week. This downward trend has been driven by healthy rainfall and a significant depreciation of the Brazilian Real. A weaker Real allows Brazilian producers to export coffee internationally at lower prices in US Dollar terms, without receiving less in their domestic currency. Last week the return of drier weather conditions and a temporary appreciation of the Real on Tuesday caused a reversal of the recent trend with coffee ending the week up 8.7%. US crude fell to a six-year low last week as stockpiles continued to accumulate and shale production showed little to no signs of slowing. US shale producers have shifted focus to rig efficiency and cost reduction to maintain output at current levels. Later in the year the curtailment of exploration spending and fall in the rig count should act to moderate US crude oil production and lift prices.

Equities

Chinese stocks cheer signs of further stimulus. On Sunday, the Chinese premier Li Keqiang pledged to shore up the economy to ensure that it meets its 7% growth target. Chinese equity markets rallied in approval, taking the statement as an indication that further stimulus measures are on their way in the form of reserve requirement reductions and interest rate cuts. The MSCI China A Index ended the week up 7.4% at an all-time high on the news. The FTSE 100 rose 3.0% in the week following the UK Chancellor of the Exchequers announcement of the 2015 pre-election budget. The budget sent energy and real estate stocks higher as the Chancellor announced measures to reduce tax on North Sea oil & gas companies and assist first time homebuyers. The EURO STOXX 50® Investable Volatility Index increased 3.6% as tensions mounted between Greece and Germany over reforms necessary in order to secure bailout funds.

Currencies

Sterling comes under pressure on inflation concerns. Following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting last week, a cautious press statement caused the Sterling to rise by 1.5% against the Dollar, the largest daily increase in five and a half years. These gains proved temporary as the Dollar recouped the prior day losses against most major currencies. Furthermore, minutes from the latest BOE meeting highlighted that consumer inflation will likely fall below zero soon and could potentially stay there if energy and food prices keep inflationary pressures at bay. Sterling is likely to continue to experience volatility in coming months, as the lack of a clear favorite in the upcoming general election and the growing popularity of parties on the fringe could lead investors to question the conviction of the British government.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

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Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

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Deutsche AWM lanserar Europas första ETF med exponering mot mellanöstern inklusive Saudiarabien

Deutsche AWM lanserar Europas första ETF med exponering mot mellanöstern inklusive Saudiarabien

Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management (Deutsche AWM) har börsnoterat Europas första ETF med exponering mot Mellanöstern och gulfstaterna, inklusive Saudiarabien1.

Db x-trackers MSCI GCC Select Index UCITS ETF speglar aktiemarknaderna i gulfstaternas samarbetsråd (Gulf Cooperation Council – GCC), med 65 procents viktning till Saudiarabien2. Övriga gulfstater är Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman och Förenade Arabemiraterna. ETF:en är noterad på London Stock Exchange med första handelsdag 24 februari.

”För utländska investerare har det traditionellt sett varit svårt att få tillträde till den saudiarabiska aktiemarknaden. Därför är lanseringen av en börshandlad indexfond med exponering till samtliga GCC-länder ett betydande steg framåt”, säger Manooj Mistry, Deutsche AWM:s chef för börshandlade produkter i Europa, mellanöstern och Asien.

Fonden har en årlig förvaltningsavgift3 på 0,65 procent och speglar MSCI GCC Countries ex Select Securities Index som är baserad på MSCI GCC Countries Index4 med undantag av ett fåtal aktier på grund av restriktioner för utländskt ägande. Underliggande index är kapitalviktat och består för närvarande av 82 företag.
Deutsche AWM kan för närvarande erbjuda över sextio ETF:er med både aktie- och ränteexponering mot tillväxtmarknader och nya tillväxtmarknader (så kallade ”frontier markets”). Deutsche AWM:s utbud av tillväxtmarknads-ETF:er är skräddarsytt för att ge investerare möjlighet att rikta in sig på specifika länder, regioner och sektorer. Därför är db x-trackers MSCI GCC Select Index UCITS ETF ett viktigt tillskott till övrigt sortiment.

Enligt internationella valutafondens senaste makroprognos för Mellanöstern och Centralasien har oljeexporterande länder varit pressade av den senaste tidens nedgång i oljepriset. Men man bedömer att kapitalreserver som innehas av GCC-staterna är tillräckligt höga för att undvika aggressiva nedskärningar som skulle kunna hämma tillväxten5. GCC-staterna är en viktig handelspartner till EU och står för cirka fyra procent av EU:s totala export till länder utanför unionen6. Samtidigt kan GCC-regionen också dra nytta av ökad handel med Kina och Indien och hög efterfrågan på energi från Asien7.

Produkt: db x-trackers MSCI GCC Select Index UCITS ETF
ISIN: IE00BQXKVQ19
Ticker:XGLF
Användning av vinst: Återinvestering
Replikering: Indirekt
Förvaltningsavgift:0,65 %
Valuta:USD

1 Deutsche Bank ETF research
2 Per 19 februari 2015.
3 Investerare bör notera att fondens årliga förvaltningsavgift inte täcker transaktionskostnader för OTC-derivat. Transaktionskostnaderna är replikeringskostnader orsakade av swapmotparten och kan påverka ETF:ens prestanda negativt i förhållande till underliggande index. Replikeringskostnaderna kan delas upp i olika kategorier beroende på typ av underliggande index (lång, kort eller belånad). En detaljerad beskrivning finns i respektive fonds prospekt. Investerare finner relevant information och aktuell indikation för de senaste transaktionskostnaderna på www.etf.deutscheawm.com.
4 Källa: http://www.msci.com/resources/factsheets/index_fact_sheet/msci-gcc-countries-index-usd-gross.pdf
5http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2015/mcd/eng/pdf/mreo0115.pdf
6http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-93-25_en.htm
7https://www.dbresearch.de/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_DE-PROD/PROD0000000000329687/The+GCC+going+East%3A+Economic+ties+with+developing+.pdf
Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management
Med över € 1000 miljarder i förvaltat kapital (30 september 2014), är Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management¹ en av världens ledande kapitalförvaltare. Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management erbjuder individer och institutioner traditionella och alternativa investeringar i samtliga större tillgångsslag. Deutsche AWM erbjuder också skräddarsydda lösningar, förmögenhetsförvaltning och private banking-tjänster till förmögna privatpersoner.

¹ Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management är varumärket på kapitalförvaltningsenheten inom Deutsche Bank-koncernen. De juridiska personer som erbjuder produkter eller tjänster inom ramen för Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management varumärke listas i kontrakt, säljmaterial och annan produktinformation.

Risker

Investerare bör notera att db X-trackers UCITS ETF:er inte är kapitalskyddade eller garanterade. Investerare bör vara införstådda med möjligheten och kunna klara av förluster på delar eller hela det investerade kapitalet.

Aktier i db X-trackers UCITS ETF:er som köps på andrahandsmarknaden kan vanligtvis inte säljas tillbaka till den aktuella fonden. Investerare måste köpa och lösa in dessa aktier på sekundärmarknaden med hjälp av en mellanhand (t.ex. en marknadsgarant eller en börsmäklare) vilket kan medföra avgifter (detta beskrivs ytterligare i gällande prospekt). Vidare kan investerare få betala än den aktuella NAV-kursen vid köp av aktier, respektive erhålla ett lägre försäljningspris än den nuvarande NAV-kursen vid försäljning av aktier i db X-trackers UCITS ETFer på sekundärmarknaden.

Investeringar i fonder innebär många risker, bland andra, generella marknadsrisker, kreditrisker, valutarisker, ränterisker och likviditetsrisker. Historisk avkastning är ingen garanti för framtida avkastning. De pengar som placeras i db X-trackers UCITS ETFer kan både öka och minska i värde och det är inte säkert att investeraren får tillbaka hela det insatta kapitalet.

Denna information har endast upprättats i informationssyfte och utgör inte ett erbjudande eller en rekommendation att ingå någon transaktion. Vi hänvisar till db X- trackers web för Faktablad och/eller Basfakta för Investerare (KIID) och/eller det fullständiga Prospektet för varje delfond för mer information om Deutsche Banks börshandlade fonder. Dessa dokument finns även tillgängliga gratis från Deutsche Bank, London Branch. Deutsche Bank AG (”DB”) är auktoriserad enligt tysk banklag (ID : 100003 behörig tillsynsmyndighet: BaFin – Den Tyska Federala Finansinspektionen) och regleras av Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) för den i Storbritannien bedriva värdepappersrörelsen i DB AG London Branch. DB har licens att bedriva gränsöverskridande verksamhet i hela det Europeiska Ekonomiska Samarbetsområdet (”EES”). Vi hänvisar till DB’s redovisning av licenser och gränsöverskridande tillstånd under rubriken ”European Union Regulatory Background and Corporate and Regulatory Disclosures “ vilket kan läsas på DB’s hemsida via länken https://www.db.com/en/content/eu_disclosures_uk.htm
På begäran redovisar vi omfattningen av våra licenser och tillstånd att bedriva gränsöverskridande verksamhet samt gällande regler vilka utfärdats av BaFin och/eller Finansinspektionen. Den registrerade adressen för Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch, är Winchester House, 1 Great Winchester Street, London EC2N 2DB. Direkt eller indirekt distribution av detta dokument i USA, Kanada eller Japan, eller till amerikanska medborgare eller bosatta i USA, är förbjudet.

Markets Turn Focus on US Jobs Data this Week

Markets Turn Focus on US Jobs Data this Week

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Markets Turn Focus on US Jobs Data this Week

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Highlights

Carbon rallies on hopes of reform to emissions trading scheme.
European stocks advance following the launch of QE.
US jobs in focus for USD after GDP disappoints.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee sent a mixed message, acknowledging the softness in prices while pointing to strength in economic expansion and jobs. US Dollar appreciated, focusing on the implications of economic strengthening on the likelihood of a rate rise. The optimism in economic activity may sit at odds with the slightly disappointing GDP figures released later last week and this week’s jobs numbers could drive a reversal in Dollar strength if they prove to be disappointing.

Commodities

Carbon rallies on hopes of reform to emissions trading scheme. Carbon rose 4.1% after proposals to amend the EU carbon trading scheme were rejected by the European parliament. The failure of the reforms creates an opportunity for the implementation of more ambitious changes which would take affect sooner relieving the current glut of carbon credits. In the agricultural space the price of soybean oil plunged 7.6% as US regulators approved a request for Argentinian biofuel makers to export to the US market. This created fears that the US market would be awash with supply from its South American counterparts. During the week, exchange traded sugar prices fell 6.7% following signals that Indian authorities would launch a production subsidy for raw sugar. The subsidy would make it economically viable for sugar mills in India to begin exporting onto global markets before international competitors like Brazil and Thailand begin to do so later in the year.

Equities

European stocks advance following the launch of QE. European stocks ended the week higher after experiencing higher volatility. European stock markets remain buoyed by the ECB announcement of QE but face uncertainty over developments in Greece and the approach of the newly elected left-wing Syriza government to international debt negotiations. The result was that the EURO STOXX 50® Investable Volatility Index increased by 3.3% during the week. Elsewhere, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) signaled, after its first meeting, that it is still on track to raise short term interest rates this year recognizing the solid pace of economic growth in the US. The prospect of higher US rates caused the gold price to drop 2.1% and in turn the DAXglobal® Gold Miners Index to fall 4%.

Currencies

US jobs in focus for USD after GDP disappoints. With the US Dollar continuing its surge higher against most major currencies last week, the risk of a correction increases, especially if the underlying economic data disappoints. The Fed broadly maintained its guidance about monetary policy, but if the weakening global situation begins to have a bigger impact on the domestic US economy, that could all change quickly. To that end, the key releases for the USD this week are ISM manufacturing index and the jobs data on Friday and if they disappoint as the Q4 GDP data did then there is likely to be a negative reaction from the USD. Markets will likely push back expectations for a rate hike, which is priced in for September currently. Both the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England rate decisions are likely to take somewhat of a back seat to US economic releases, with the BOE expected to keep policy unchanged. Meanwhile the risk for the AUD is a rate cut as the economic recovery remains sluggish. Currently markets are indicating a 65% chance of a cut.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.