Etikett: Brazilian Real

Short sugar and coffee

ETF Securities Short sugar and coffeeShort sugar and coffee

ETF Securities Commodity Research Short sugar and coffee

Highlights

  • Speculative positioning in both sugar and coffee appear over-extended.
  • Brazil’s sugar production has risen and a healthy monsoon in India paves the way for a partial recovery in cane production.
  • The abolition of the sugar production quota in Europe next October will weigh on global prices.
  • Brazilian Arabica coffee output hit an all-time high in 2016, but prices rose as a result of Brazilian Real appreciation.
  • With La Niña potentially back on the cards and weather in Brazil remaining favourable, the next season’s Arabica crop may surprise on the upside.

Sugar rally to run out of steam

Sugar has gained over 80% since February 2016 as the market is expected to have entered a second consecutive year of a production deficit. Prices are now trading at a 5-year high.

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The futures market has become very bullish. Net long positioning in the futures market hit an all-time high a few weeks ago and remains more than 2 standard deviations above its 5-year historic average.

We believe that this optimism is overdone. Sugar production in Brazil, which produces close to 25% of global output, is running close to 20% higher than last year. While there is some fear that the season could be cut short, we believe that higher prices will encourage mills to continue production. Indeed, the cane harvest, which is close to 70% complete, is also running 10% ahead of last year. Moreover, with sugar prices this high and weakness in oil prices, more cane could be diverted to sugar production over ethanol production.

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India, the second largest producer of sugar, has received normal levels of rain this monsoon in contrast to the previous year’s failed monsoon. Reservoir levels have filled to around 75% as of October 20th, which is exactly in line with the 10-year average for this time of the year (and 128% of the corresponding period last year). Reservoir levels in the key cane producing areas was even higher. With most cane in India being irrigated, availability of reservoir water will be important for the following season.

EU to scrap sugar beet production quota

The EU is set to abolish its sugar beet production quota in October 2017. While the ICE Sugar No. 11 futures contract is based on the delivery of raw cane sugar, the greater availability of a close substitute could impact its price. Although the EU will eliminate quotas on production of sugar beet, it is not set to change tariffs on the import of raw cane sugar. Refiners in the EU are therefore more likely to use domestic beet for sugar production. While this is more of a concern for next year, prices of raw cane sugar could begin to weaken in advance.

Arabica price rises despite Brazilian production increase

Arabica coffee prices have risen close to 40% since January and speculative positioning is over 1 standard deviation above historic average.

Brazil dominates Arabica coffee production and has a significant influence on the price of the commodity.

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2016 Arabica coffee output from Brazil was the highest on record despite the fears that El Niño would hamper production. The Arabica harvest in Brazil was largely complete in September.

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As the chart above indicates, coffee output in Brazil goes through biennial cycles: production rises in one year and falls in the next. The 2016 coffee crop in Brazil was a high year in the biennial cycle and 2017 will be a low year. Some of the recent price gains may reflect that we are about to enter a cyclical low year, but we caution that the pattern does not always hold (for example between 2012 and 2013).

We believe that more of the gains were driven by an appreciating Brazilian Real. The Real appreciated on the back of an impeachment of the Brazilian President. Barring any positive economic shock, we believe that most of the positive news for the Real is priced-in.

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Potential for favourable weather

Weather conditions may have turned favourable for production in Brazil. Currently rain is progressing well in the south east of Brazil (where close to 90% of its Arabica is grown). That is important during the critical ‘flowering’ process. The amount of flowering determines how much coffee cherries will develop on each coffee bush.

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Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Gold’s Haven Status Reinstated?

Gold’s Haven Status Reinstated?

Gold’s Haven Status Reinstated? – ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly

•  Gold ETPs see highest inflows since January.

•  Eight consecutive weeks of oil ETPs inflows follow sharp price declines.

•  ETFS Daily Leveraged Natural Gas (LNGA) received highest inflows in 11 weeks.

•  Investors trimmed long coffee ETP exposure by US$4.3mn.

•  ETFS Palladium Trust (PALL) saw US$12.0mn of redemptions, the highest since September 2014.

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Gold posted a third consecutive week of gains and gold ETPs finally broke a 10-week streak of outflows. Uncertainty around China’s currency policy, volatile equity markets and the realization that a September Fed hike is not a done deal drove the price higher. While current negative sentiment is providing support for gold prices, the near term outlook will depend on central bank discussions coming out of the Jackson Hole this week. Any dovishness is likely to boost the upward momentum for defensive commodities.

Gold ETPs see highest inflows since January. Physical gold ETPs received US$230.6mn of inflows last week, as rising prices has lifted the negative sentiment against the metal. Futures market shorts have also been trimmed for the fourth consecutive week. While a confluence of factors has driven gold prices higher, a standout observation was that the VIX index rose 87% last week, signaling a market shift from greed to fear. Gold has traditionally been the first port of call in times of market stress.

Eight consecutive weeks of oil ETPs inflows follow sharp price declines. Bargain hunting continued last week with US$71.8mn of inflows into long oil ETPs. Brent fell 5.3% and WTI declined 2.6%, as the global production surplus accelerates. WTI had fallen to a 6 ½ year low. ETP investors realize that such low prices will drive a reduction in capex and eventual fall in production, but for now crude inventories in the US are still rising, depressing the price. US oil rigs also continue to reopen, adding to supply. ETP investors will need to be patient and bear with the lag in the response from producers.

ETFS Daily Leveraged Natural Gas (LNGA) received highest inflows in 11 weeks. Natural gas inventories rose less than expected (53Bcf vs. 59% Bcf expected), driving a temporary rally last Wednesday and Thursday. The current period of seasonally high demand from the power sector’s air conditioning needs will likely come to an end in autumn and could place downward pressure on price. LNGA received US$4.3mn last week.

Investors trimmed long coffee ETP exposure by US$4.3mn. With the Brazilian harvest coming close to an end, the realisation that last year’s drought has led to smaller bean sizes this year has driven up prices in recent weeks. However, a benign winter has minimised frost-damage and so what the harvest lacks in quality will be made up for in quantity, which has driven prices lower over the past week. Coffee suffers from a weak Brazilian Real, which has encouraged Brazilian farmers to offload stocks cheaply. Sugar conversely rose 1.2% last week, as concerns around poor monsoon rains in India could lead the market into balance for the first time in six years. Long sugar ETPs attracted US$1mn of inflows.

ETFS Palladium Trust (PALL) saw US$12.0mn of redemptions, the highest since September 2014. With Chinese auto demand remaining soft, prospects for global autocatalyst demand, which accounts for 70% of palladium use, remains poor. However, tightening emissions regulation in Europe in September could see the loadings of platinum group metals rise.

Key events to watch this week. Central bankers will convene at Jackson Hole, Wyoming at a pivotal juncture in the Fed’s rate cycle. Consensus expectations are for a September hike, but speeches and presentations by policy makers could sway opinions.

Video Presentation

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

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This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

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This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

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Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

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Coffee and Sugar Prices Continue to Slide

Coffee and Sugar Prices Continue to Slide

Coffee and Sugar Prices Continue to Slide

  • The last few months have seen coffee and sugar prices continue their relentless march lower, as adverse currency movements and bearish supply forecasts weigh on sentiment in both markets. The result is that coffee and sugar prices have fallen to low levels by historical standards prompting the question: has either coffee or sugar found a floor?

Net Flows & Speculative Positioning

  • In the last five months, speculative positioning in the futures market has turned increasingly bearish towards coffee and sugar (see Figure 1 below). However, we’ve seen falling prices prompt a total of US$121mn of funds enter long coffee and sugar ETPs year to date. With coffee at 18 month lows and sugar at six and a half year lows, investors appear to be using this as an opportunity to gain long exposure at attractive levels.
  • Sugar to Sink Lower
    The demand picture for the global sugar market is strong, as sugar consumption in China and India continues to grow to record levels. However, we believe that the demand side is overshadowed by robust global production, which looks set to add to already swollen sugar stockpiles (see Figure 2 below). Furthermore, with Indian authorities announcing in March that they will initiate subsidies to encourage sugar exports, the global market looks set to be flooded with supply. This should see the price of sugar continue its slump and move lower in the near term. Investors can express bearish views on sugar through short sugar ETPs that rise in value as the price of sugar falls.

Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:

Coffee

Sugar

The complete ETF Securities product list can be found here.

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This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorized and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). The products discussed in this document are issued by ETFS Commodity Securities Limited, ETFS Hedged Commodity Securities Limited and Swiss Commodity Securities Limited (together the ”Issuers”). The Issuers are regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission.
This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.
ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.
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Eurozone Deal Remains Elusive

Eurozone Deal Remains Elusive

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Eurozone Deal Remains Elusive

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Coffee rebounds following Brazilian Real appreciation.

Chinese stocks cheer signs of further stimulus.

Sterling comes under pressure on inflation concerns.

Today Angela Merkel will host talks with Alex Tsipras, the Greek premier, in a bid to improve relations between the two nations and ensure the future of Greece within the Eurozone. The meeting comes as recent negotiations over the conditions of a Greek bailout package have divided public opinion and strained political ties. Elsewhere, the release of a series of manufacturing and home sales data this week will give investors the opportunity to gauge the health of major global economies. CPI data from the US and the UK will give clarity on the impact of low energy and food prices on inflation and the potential pace of rate hikes.

Commodities

Coffee rebounds following Brazilian Real appreciation. Coffee prices have come under significant pressure this year, falling 24% to US$1.26 per pound last week. This downward trend has been driven by healthy rainfall and a significant depreciation of the Brazilian Real. A weaker Real allows Brazilian producers to export coffee internationally at lower prices in US Dollar terms, without receiving less in their domestic currency. Last week the return of drier weather conditions and a temporary appreciation of the Real on Tuesday caused a reversal of the recent trend with coffee ending the week up 8.7%. US crude fell to a six-year low last week as stockpiles continued to accumulate and shale production showed little to no signs of slowing. US shale producers have shifted focus to rig efficiency and cost reduction to maintain output at current levels. Later in the year the curtailment of exploration spending and fall in the rig count should act to moderate US crude oil production and lift prices.

Equities

Chinese stocks cheer signs of further stimulus. On Sunday, the Chinese premier Li Keqiang pledged to shore up the economy to ensure that it meets its 7% growth target. Chinese equity markets rallied in approval, taking the statement as an indication that further stimulus measures are on their way in the form of reserve requirement reductions and interest rate cuts. The MSCI China A Index ended the week up 7.4% at an all-time high on the news. The FTSE 100 rose 3.0% in the week following the UK Chancellor of the Exchequers announcement of the 2015 pre-election budget. The budget sent energy and real estate stocks higher as the Chancellor announced measures to reduce tax on North Sea oil & gas companies and assist first time homebuyers. The EURO STOXX 50® Investable Volatility Index increased 3.6% as tensions mounted between Greece and Germany over reforms necessary in order to secure bailout funds.

Currencies

Sterling comes under pressure on inflation concerns. Following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting last week, a cautious press statement caused the Sterling to rise by 1.5% against the Dollar, the largest daily increase in five and a half years. These gains proved temporary as the Dollar recouped the prior day losses against most major currencies. Furthermore, minutes from the latest BOE meeting highlighted that consumer inflation will likely fall below zero soon and could potentially stay there if energy and food prices keep inflationary pressures at bay. Sterling is likely to continue to experience volatility in coming months, as the lack of a clear favorite in the upcoming general election and the growing popularity of parties on the fringe could lead investors to question the conviction of the British government.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

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