Etikett: Industrial metals

Oil Bargain Hunting Continues as Investors Shun Gold on Greek Deal

Oil Bargain Hunting Continues as Investors Shun Gold on Greek DealOil Bargain Hunting Continues as Investors Shun Gold on Greek Deal

Oil Bargain Hunting Continues as Investors Shun Gold on Greek Deal- ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly

•    Bargain hunting drives inflows into long WTI oil ETPs to highest in 16 weeks, totaling US$44mn.

•    Investors see value in ’industrial’ precious metals, continuing to shun gold.

•    ETFS Wheat (WEAT) outflows hit six-month high.

•    Long copper and nickel ETPs buck the trend of outflows from industrial metals sector.

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Cyclical assets are benefiting in early trading on the newly agreed Greek deal, while defensive assets are currently out of favour. Gold in particular has lost ground as positive sentiment grips investors, but there remain hurdles for the Greek government to implement and adhere to the arrangements. Commodity markets are likely to begin to trade in line with fundamentals, now that the uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone is beginning to fade. However, the relative stability in sentiment will need to be sustained. Chinese economic data (GDP, industrial production and retail sales) will be the main focus for investors this week, after better-than-expected trade data showed that commodity demand remains solid.

Bargain hunting drives inflows into long WTI oil ETPs to highest in 16 weeks, totaling US$44mn. The second consecutive weekly build in crude stockpiles, alongside a rising rig count, indicated that supply is likely to remain abundant, with prices still not low enough to dissuade production in the US. The issue of ‘massive oversupply’ has been reiterated by the International Energy Agency, which noted that there is further potential price falls in the pipeline. Meanwhile, OPEC supply is another concern, and if Iranian nuclear negotiations are successful, the 3-year high production levels could rise further. Indeed, while bargain hunters are looking at current prices as attractive entry points, some near-term softness could result until excess supply can be absorbed by rising demand.

Investors see value in ‘industrial’ precious metals, continuing to shun gold. The sentiment driven sell-off in precious metals has begun to draw investors, with silver and platinum the most favoured. Investors are looking at the depressed price levels of precious metals with significant industrial demand as attractively valued, as the global economic recovery continues, despite negative sentiment currently pervading markets. Long silver ETPs recorded the fourth consecutive week of inflows, with US$18mn received over the period. Meanwhile, platinum posted the third consecutive week of inflows, totaling US$17mn over the period.

ETFS Wheat (WEAT) outflows hit six-month high. Wheat prices have pared recent strong gains, and investors have reduced positions for the second consecutive week. WEAT outflows totaled US$a4.3mn, alongside the recent USDA report showing rising US output this year. Soybean output was also revised higher but the report showed declining corn production.

Long copper and nickel ETPs buck the trend of outflows from industrial metals sector. ETFS Long Copper (COPA) recorded the largest inflow in 10 weeks, totaling US$8.6mn. Meanwhile ETFS Nickel (NICK) has recorded the fourth successive weekly inflows, with deposits of US$15.7mn over the period. Although negative Chinese sentiment coming from sharemarket uncertainty has had an adverse impact on industrial metals prices, we believe that once fundamentals reassert, prices will be broadly supported.

Key events to watch this week. Once concern over Greece’s situation has subsided, focus will move back to economic fundamentals and a raft of Chinese data including GDP, industrial production and retail sales will be key to price direction for commodity markets. The ECB meeting will be a contributor, mainly for the impact that a potentially stronger US Dollar could have on commodities, particularly the precious metals sector.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Sentiment overshadows fundamentals … for now

Sentiment overshadows fundamentals… for now

Commodity Monthly Monitor – Sentiment overshadows fundamentals … for now
June/July 2015

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Highlights

Currency impact overshadows stronger El Niño threat for softs.

Gold stable as tighter US policy overshadows Greece concerns.

Softer Chinese economic sentiment weighs on industrial metals

Energy sector buoyant as demand strengthens.

Outside the energy sector, investor sentiment for commodities has softened on the back of concern over the global economic outlook and the volatility that has pervaded financial markets. Volatility has been a ubiquitous force not only across asset classes, but across regions, as uncertainty over the health of the Chinese economy has lingered at the same time as fears of a Grexit has risen. Although policymakers have warned investors to expect protracted market volatility, stimulus in China, Japan, Europe and beyond is likely to keep demand conditions favourable for most commodities. With improving commodity fundamentals beginning to reassert, we expect that sentiment will rebound in coming months as stronger evidence of the global recovery begins to be witnessed.

Currency impact overshadows stronger El Niño threat for softs. Sharp moves in sugar have largely been currency related, offsetting any concern over reduced supply if the El Niño intensifies later in the year. Meanwhile good US growing conditions have kept any gains in check for grains.

Gold stable as tighter US policy overshadows Greece concerns. Gold outperformed other precious metals, remaining resilient despite the threat of rising US rates. Other metals in the sector were adversely impacted by evidence of softer demand.

Softer Chinese economic sentiment weighs on industrial metals. Despite broadly tighter fundamental conditions, deteriorating Chinese economic sentiment weighed on the industrial metals complex. We expect recovery in prices, as supply optimism begins to fade in the latter stages of 2015.

Energy sector buoyant as demand strengthens. Investors have cut bets of a near-term upside move in oil prices, despite rising demand. With oil supply remaining elevated on a global scale, the risk of a downside move in crude prices will increase if demand growth fades.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

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This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

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Platinum Buoyant Against Backdrop of Potential Labour Unrest

Platinum Buoyant Against Backdrop of Potential Labour Unrest

ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly Platinum Buoyant Against Backdrop of Potential Labour Unrest

Platinum defies precious metals trend with strongest inflows in 19 weeks.

ETFS Industrial Metals (AIGI) inflows reverse prior trend.

Energy price gains prompt 12th consecutive weekly outflow from long oil ETPs as investors anticipate near-term correction.

Last week we hosted a post-OPEC webinar providing an update on the current state of the oil industry with Amrita Sen, Oil Analyst at Energy Aspects – watch the recording

Divergent agricultural outflows led by wheat and coffe.

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The energy sector was the one bright spot within a gloomy week for commodity markets. Lingering Greek uncertainty and rising geopolitical risk is likely to remain a supportive influence for precious metals in coming weeks. At the margin, the US Dollar’s recent strength is having an adverse impact on commodity markets. We expect further US Dollar strength to keep commodity gains capped in the near-term, but rising economic activity, is likely to be supportive of commodity markets later in the year. Moreover, with commodities being priced in USD, European investors receive a currency benefit if local currencies posts further falls against the USD – a product of diverging monetary policy and the sluggish European growth.

Platinum defies precious metals trend with strongest inflows in 19 weeks. Reports of potential strikes at gold mining companies in South Africa appear to have prompted investors to deposit the largest amount of funds in long platinum ETPs since late January, fearing potential contagion in the mining sector. South Africa, a traditional hotbed of labour market unrest, is again experiencing tension between the two largest rival trade unions, the NUM and the AMCU over gold mining worker pay levels. Meanwhile palladium has traded to its lowest level in over two years after evidence of slowing Chinese auto sales. Palladium responded negatively to an announcement by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers that sales fell 0.4% in May on a year earlier.

ETFS Industrial Metals (AIGI) inflows reverse prior trend. Investors are favouring broad industrial metals exposure at the expense of single commodity positions. AIGI received US$8mn in inflows, the largest in three weeks, as fundamental conditions appear to be tightening for a range of industrial metals. While individual industrial metals will continue to trade in line with their own fundamentals, we believe that an upside surprise in Chinese and European activity should be beneficial for the industrial metal complex, as policy makers from both jurisdictions continue to stimulate their economies.

Energy price gains prompt 12th consecutive weekly outflow from long oil ETPs as investors anticipate near-term correction. A further US$39.3mn was withdrawn from long oil ETPs last week, as investors continued to book profits ahead of a potential correction. US rig counts are appearing to stabilise at current price levels, with a decline of only four rigs last week. Investor positioning also highlights the near term pessimism for oil prices, with Brent and WTI positioning declining 44% and 5% on a month earlier, respectively.

Divergent agricultural outflows led by wheat and coffee. Broad based price declines prompted withdrawals from agricultural ETPs last week. The largest outflows in the agricultural sector since January was led by US$5.6mn outflows from wheat ETPs. The USDA surprisingly increased wheat supply forecasts for this year. Wheat had previously been rallying following excess rain in in the key growing areas in the US.

Key events to watch this week. Amongst a raft of central bank meeting this week, the FOMC meeting is the key event in the coming week, in order to gauge how far away the Fed is from the beginning of its tightening cycle. Other central banks (Bank of Japan and the ECB) will keep policy extremely loose, assisting the gradual recovery of their domestic economies.

Video Presentation

Martin Arnold, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

China GDP in Focus After Rare Cut

China GDP in Focus After Rare Cut

ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly China GDP in Focus After Rare Cut

Industrial metals see fifth consecutive week of inflows.

Silver price drops back to attractive level, prompting inflows as gold sees more outflows.

Long WTI ETPs see largest outflows since 2010, ahead of US weekly inventory data.

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China’s latest stimulus – cutting its repo rate – has helped support industrial metals and a solid GDP result this week will give more impetus to commodity markets. Chinese commodity exports rebounded in March in another sign of a stabilization in demand and going into a strong seasonal period, cyclical commodities like industrial metals, should be well supported. Defensive commodities like gold will be in the spotlight this week, as investors look ahead to Eurozone CPI and the US retail sales data releases to gauge the pace of policy divergence in 2015. Eurozone CPI releases will be key for this week’s ECB meeting discussions.

Industrial metals see fifth consecutive week of inflows. Value investors appear to be wading back into the industrial metals space, with inflows totaling US$85mn over the past five weeks. Investors are becoming more optimistic about the outlook for the Chinese economy following its latest cut in interest rates in order to support activity. ETFS Copper (COPA) has been the main beneficiary, receiving around a third of total inflows over the past month, totaling US$28mn. Chinese imports of unwrought copper jumped by over 45% in March from February, in an indication of the tightening underlying market. While down around 2% on a year ago, Q2 is strong from a seasonal perspective and imports could continue to strengthen.

Silver price drops back to attractive level, prompting inflows as gold sees more outflows. ETFS Physical Silver (PHAG) experienced the second consecutive weekly inflows, totaling US$13mn over the period. The inflows are the largest biweekly inflows in two months and come as silver dipped to the lowest level in three weeks. With the link between silver and gold remaining strong, any further increase in volatility should support prices. While we believe that a US$15-16/oz price level is a buying opportunity, the market remains plagued by years of oversupply. Nonetheless, investors appear to be seeing silver from a strong relative value perspective and if inflation expectations in the Eurozone continue to move lower this week, both gold and silver could be key beneficiaries.

Long WTI ETPs see largest outflows since 2010, ahead of US weekly inventory data. A strong rally in crude followed the announcement of price hikes from Saudi Arabia to its Asian clients in addition to a lack of clarity over the potential ramp up in production from Iran following a potential nuclear deal being agreed. Investors took the opportunity to take profit, with crude ETPs withdrawals totaling US$73mn last week. In contrast, net long positions in WTI futures reached the highest level since August 2014. With US crude production continuing to defy depressed prices – the EIA’s weekly report showed the build in inventories last week was nearly three times larger than expected, at nearly 11mn barrels – near term downside risk remains elevated.

Key events to watch this week. Commodity investors will be closely watching the GDP release from China to determine whether the slowdown is more pronounced than expected. We feel that stimulus can support activity so growth remains resilient around the 7% level in 2015. Retail sales will be the next signpost to gauge whether the US economy is strong enough to support the beginning of policy tightening this year. Ahead of the ECB meeting, Eurozone inflation readings will also be critical for defensive commodities like gold and silver.

Video Presentation

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.