Etikett: nickel

Prepare for Short-Covering Rallies

 Prepare for Short-Covering Rallies

Commodity ETP Weekly Prepare for Short-Covering Rallies

ETFS Daily Short Gold (SBUL) saw its highest redemption since inception.
Inflows of US$6.8mn for long agricultural ETP baskets indicates that investors see value in grains after falling to their lowest price levels since 2010.
ETFS Daily Leveraged Natural Gas (LNGA) saw US$4.6mn of inflows, the highest in 9 weeks, as storage values came under expectations.
Long nickel ETPs received US$1.4mn of inflows as the Indonesian government reiterated that the ore export ban from will remain.

Bargainhunting investors are beginning to be attracted by lower commodity prices, with positive flows into agricultural baskets and silver signaling a belief that the bottom is near. Nonetheless, most commodity prices continued lower in the past week and softer sentiment in some sectors prompted outflows. Gold remained under pressure last week, with all indications that the Federal Reserve’s policy stance will be tighter in 2015. Ongoing concern over the outlook for China also weighed on the performance of industrial metals and industrially-inclined precious metals. We believe that with speculative shorts across many commodities having risen to multi-period highs, the prospect for short-covering rallies is high. Over the coming weeks, investors are likely to start building long positions with most commodity trading at or near the cost of production.

ETFS Daily Short Gold (SBUL) saw its highest redemption since inception. After a protracted period of building up shorts on gold, investors pulled back as the price of gold approaches our estimated all-in cost of production and the widely watched support level near US$1,200/oz. US$47.7mn flowed out of SBUL, wiping out the seven months of flows into the short product. While investors continued to pare their long gold positions as well, with US$51mn leaving physical gold ETPs last week, taking further bets on a decline in price seems risky at this point.

Inflows of US$6.8mn for long agricultural ETP baskets indicates that investors see value in grains after falling to their lowest price levels since 2010. Marking the highest inflow in 9 weeks, we believe that sentiment is slowly turning. Investors have been buying wheat ETPs for 19 consecutive weeks now and there is a growing sense that all ‘good’ production news has now been priced in. Meanwhile sugar prices bounced up 6.6%, attracting a further US$0.9mn into ETFS Sugar (SUGA), marking 8 consecutive weeks of flows into the ETP. Sugar remains close to a 4-year low as the fifth consecutive year of surplus is expected this year.

ETFS Daily Leveraged Natural Gas (LNGA) saw US$4.6mn of inflows, the highest in 9 weeks, as storage values came under expectations. US natural gas stocks increased by 97 billion cubic feet in the week ending September 19. That compared with an expected increase of about 100 billion cubic feet anticipated by analysts and sent prices 1.6% higher last week. As we approach winter, seasonal demand for natural gas will rise. A failure to build inventory or an unusually cold winter like last year could be key catalysts for sustained price increases.

Long nickel ETPs received US$1.4mn of inflows as the Indonesian government reiterated that the ore export ban will remain. Indonesia, the world’s largest nickel producer, had implemented the ban in January this year and has unusually stuck to it in a bid to develop domestic smelting facilities. Nickel prices nevertheless fell, along with other industrial metals on the back of softer-than-expected PMIs and durable goods data.

Key events to watch this week. US payrolls will be the centre of attention this week as the market judges the capacity of the US economy to absorb an interest rate hike that will eventually follow when the Fed finishes its period of extraordinary monetary support. A strong reading is likely to be US dollar positive and weigh on commodities priced in the currency. After the lacklustre take-up of the TLTRO (the ECB’s form or quantitative easing), the market will be keen to hear President Draghi’s view of the programme at the ECB’s post-policy meeting conference.

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Video Presentation

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

 

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This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

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This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

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Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

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Eurozone and UK Uncertainty Dampens Investor Sentiment

Eurozone and UK Uncertainty Dampens Investor Sentiment

Eurozone and UK Uncertainty Dampens Investor Sentiment ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly

Highlights

Coffee remains volatile ahead of Brazilian state estimates of this year’s crop.

European stocks drop as Russian sanctions and Scottish vote unnerve investors.

Commodity currencies under pressure as FX volatility rises.

Cyclical commodities and European equities fell last week as investors refrained from taking on big bets ahead of the Scottish referendum or the Federal Reserve’s meeting this week. Meanwhile the EU’s tightening of sanctions against Russia last Friday is likely to consolidate the risk-averse behavior investors have been displaying lately. A batch of weaker-than-expected data from China also dented global sentiment, although Chinese stocks appear to have shrugged of the news with the MSCI China A index posting gains last week.

Commodities

Coffee remains volatile ahead of Brazilian state estimates of this year’s crop. Coffee fell 8.4%, wiping out the past month’s excessive gains. As the Brazilian coffee harvest comes closer to an end, prices have been sent into a volatile spin as speculators guess the impact of this year’s drought on the crop. A report by CONAB, Brazil’s National Supply Company this week should give investors a better forecast of the progress of this year’s harvest. The USDA released its World Agricultural Demand and Supply report which was bullish on cotton and bearish on wheat. Cotton prices jumped 4.0%, while wheat fell 3.9%. Lean hogs and livestock also rose 2.7% and 1.1% respectively as the same report projected lower pork and beef production. Zinc, nickel and lead fell 5.7%, 5.1% and 4.9%, respectively, as a batch of weak Chinese data hurt sentiment toward the cyclical metals. At the same time the probability of the Philippines following Indonesia’s example in banning ore exports has lessened, reducing some of the premium in these metals.

Equities

European stocks drop as Russian sanctions and Scottish vote unnerve investors. Investor sentiment has been buffeted by increased uncertainty over the potential outcome of the Scottish independence vote, alongside concerns over geopolitical risks affecting growth. The ‘Better Together’ campaign appears to have recovered after the previous week pro-independence push, but uncertainty ahead of the Thursday’s vote has been weighing on European equities. The FTSE 100® Super Short Strategy Index closed the week up 2.2% – the first time since beginning of August. While the price of gold slipped for the second consecutive week ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting as the USD strengthened, the EURO STOXX 50® Investable Volatility Index surged 8.2%, the largest weekly gain over the past year. Meanwhile, the MSCI China A Index shrugged off weaker Chinese economic data, posting an 1% gain last week

Currencies

Commodity currencies under pressure as FX volatility rises. Rising volatility has been supportive of USD with commodity currencies recording weakness alongside the price declines experienced across a broad range of commodities. The key risk that could hamper further USD strength this week will be any dovish rhetoric from the Fed after the weaker-than-expected jobs report. Meanwhile the GBP will remain in focus with the Scottish election appearing to be a closely run event. While we expect GBP to rebound if the ‘No’ campaign against independence wins out, we feel that this would present an opportunity to sell into such rally and remain bearish on the Pound against the USD. The other key event this week will be the extent of the take up of the introduction of the ECB’s latest stimulus, the TLTRO. The ECB remains committed to increasing its support to the Eurozone economy and we expect further Euro weakness as the ECB’s balance sheet begins to balloon.

To read the complete report, please click here.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.
”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Investor Sentiment Improves Amidst Eurozone and UK Uncertainty

Investor Sentiment Improves Amidst Eurozone and UK Uncertainty

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Investor Sentiment Improves Amidst Eurozone and UK Uncertainty Investors’ sentiment improved last week, boosting industrial metals and China A shares, as Russia and Ukraine made progress towards the termination of the conflict and China PMI surprised on the upside. While geopolitical risks appear to be subsiding, uncertainty over the recovery in the Eurozone and the Scottish Independence vote in the UK remains, weighing on both the Euro and Sterling.

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Commodities

Nickel jumps 4% on Philippines ban reports. Nickel is the best performing industrial metal year-to-date, up 40%, following on from an export ban in Indonesia, nickel’s biggest producer. So far China has been able to supply the high-grade laterites required to aliment its nickel pig iron industry from the Philippines. However, should the rumours of a ban in the Philippines be confirmed, about 45% of mine supply would be taken off the market. Zinc also rallied last week, consolidating the gains achieved during the past few months. Zinc is expected to be in a deficit for a second consecutive year in 2014 on planned mine closures and strong demand for galvanised steel from China. Meanwhile, wheat and corn continued their slump, losing 7.3% and 6.2% respectively last week on abundant harvest expectations. However, with prices at multi-year lows and frost concerns in some parts of the US threatening to reduce expected production, prices could recover part of their losses over the next few weeks.

Equities

European equities surge on ECB unexpected cut in rate. Last week saw European equity benchmarks rising after the ECB announced fresh stimulus to support Eurozone activity, reviving equity market sentiment with leveraged European indices gaining 6.1% on average over the past week, the highest weekly change since December 2013. However, uncertainty over the Scottish Independence vote has seen UK equities sink in early trading, and downward pressure is likely if polls indicate independence parties keeping the upper hand. Recent USD strength following the ECB meeting caused the gold price and the DAXglobal® Gold Miners Index to tumble, down 1.6% and 4.7% respectively, erasing the previous week’s gains. Meanwhile, better-than-expected August China PMI gave a boost to the MSCI China A Index, with price momentum likely to continue as China economy recovers.

Currencies

British Pound plunges on Scottish independence polls. The pound touched 10- month lows as polls show that Scottish independence voters have the lead going into the independence vote in two weeks time. The Pound is likely to remain under pressure in the near-term as volatility rises, but investors will be closely watching polls in the lead-up to the September 18 vote. The Euro dropped to its weakest level in 14 months after the worsening inflation outlook and the fading economic momentum caused the ECB to surprise the market with further policy support. The ECB cut its policy rates by another 10bps and announced an asset backed security purchase programme and a covered bond purchase programme to revive the flow of credit to the real economy. We expect the USD to strengthen despite last week disappointing jobs report. While US jobs missed expectations, we feel rising US growth will prompt rate differentials to widen in favour of the US and support the USD.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Så här stor del av råvarumarknaden kontrollerar Ryssland

Så här stor del av råvarumarknaden kontrollerar Ryssland

Så här stor del av råvarumarknaden kontrollerar Ryssland. Många placerare följer noggrant den geopolitiska oron mellan Ryssland och Ukraina. Oavsett om politik är något som intresserar människor är det av stor betydelse för den som agerar på de finansiella marknaderna, något som i synnerhet gäller de som är verksamma på råvarumarknaden. Så här stor del av råvarumarknaden kontrollerar Ryssland.

Detta beror på att Ryssland är en stor producent av råvaror, både när det gäller energi i form av olja och naturgas, metaller som platina, palladium och nickel, gruvdrift och jordbruk.

Detta gör att investerare blir oroliga för den inverkan Ryssland dominans på råvarumarknaden kan få på priserna på olika råvaror. Ryssland står i dag för 13 procent av den globala oljeproduktionen och 14 procent av den globala naturgasproduktionen.

Internationella samfundet överväger ytterligare sanktioner mot Ryssland.

Betydelsen av de ryska energiflödena till både Ryssland, i form av skatter och licensavgifter och i USA och Europa (via eventuella effekter på tillväxt och inflation) gör att sannolikheten att det kommer att genomföras någon form av energirelaterade sanktioner är osannolik.

Sanktioner för vissa metaller som platina, palladium och nickel är också osannolika eftersom dessa metaller kan vara svåra att ersätta på marknaderna i Europa och USA med tanke på Rysslands stora andel av den globala produktionen.