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ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – The Trump reflation trade prompts outflows in gold and emerging market debt
Gold ETPs saw outflows of US$83m, the largest in a week in 2016. We saw similar behaviour earlier this year when investors were expecting an imminent rate hike in the upcoming FED meetings. This time round though its the highest probability all year, with a 94% chance of a rate hike according to the futures market. This year gold flows have been predominantly inflows with only 28% of daily flows being remittances. Furthermore, whilst gold short ETPs inflows increase in-line with inflows from the period from 2007 to 2012, this year we have only seen net inflows US$87k suggesting that despite gold’s recent weakness, investors want to maintain their existing holdings, the prospects of rising inflation and political instability are likely reasons. We are also seeing a significant divergence in regional flows, flows from investors who are based in the US, and therefore USD based, have pulled out of gold at a much greater rate than their Europe based counterparts. This is likely due to the recent strength of the USD giving non-USD currency investors in gold a lift from the currency despite weakness in the underlying.
In reaction to the Trump reflation trade we saw the first significant outflows of the year from Emerging Market Debt ETPs totalling US$55m. The yield differential between EM local debt and the European yields is at a multi-year high (over 5%). We maintain our view that EM countries have a stronger credit standing than what is commonly perceived, leaving room for further upside to price. In our opinion, any technical selloff represents a good opportunity to enter EM debt. Oil
ETPs saw further inflows last week totalling US$49m, bringing the total inflow in the last four weeks to almost US$258m as investors punt of a deal being brokered at the OPEC meeting on the 30th November. We believe OPEC’s ability to broker a supply cut is fading. A flurry of meetings between both OPEC and non- OPEC countries have taken place, but have so far produced little positive results. Growing scepticism about OPEC’s ability to cut production has led to short positions rising 56% in WTI and 39% in the past month. OPEC’s commitment is contingent on the participation of non-OPEC countries, but with large non-OPEC members like Russia, Kazakhstan and Brazil seeing new production come online as a result of past capital expenditure from several years ago, the likelihood of a concrete commitment is looking slim. We expect to see oil prices remain volatile in the run-up to OPEC’s November 30th meeting.
What to watch this week. With the market pricing the December rate hike odds to a near certainty, investors won’t be paying as much attention to the minutes of the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday. While the release of the Autumn statement on fiscal and economic policy in the UK on Wednesday will take centre stage.
ETF Securities Research team ETF Securities (UK) Limited T +44 (0) 207 448 4336 E info@etfsecurities.com
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Investors trim short GBP positions by US$17.9mn as Sterling appears to have reached rock bottom. After the UK voted to leave the EU in June, GBP depreciated more than 10% reflecting the inevitable economic decline and prolonged uncertainty that will ensue as the country failed to have a plan of action to manage the exit. However, the economic weakness, aggressive central bank stimulus and the potential for a fiscal blow-out are largely priced in, giving little scope for further depreciation.
Investors sell EUR shorts. Investors sold US$9.0mn of long USD, short EUR ETPs, largely reversing inflows into the same the previous week. With the EUR having depreciated against the USD by 1.1% last week investors took profit on their positions.
Gold continues to see inflows for sixth consecutive week. With US durable goods orders coming in higher than expected and the second GDP reading confirming a solid economic base, the Federal Reserve is running out of excuses for not raising rates. Although heavily hedged with emphasis that the outlook is uncertain and monetary policy is not on a preset course, Yellen said that she believes the case for a rate rise has strengthened in recent months. Gold prices fell close to 1.5%. Investors however continue to buy gold ETPs, as they add to hedges in their portfolios. Inflows of US$121.5mn into gold ETPs mark a four-week high.
Palladium and silver ETPs see outflows. While palladium ETPs have seen outflows for seven consecutive weeks, last week’s outflow of US$12mn was the largest since November 2015. After a 30% rally since mid-June palladium’s performance has stumbled in recent weeks, driving higher outflows. Silver’s decline from US$20/oz to US$18.5/oz in August saw an outflow of US$7mn. The fundamentals for both palladium and silver remain strong and so lower prices offer investors a good entry point. Both metals are in a supply deficit and stand to benefit from an uptick in the industrial cycle. Palladium’s use in pollution abatement equipment and silver’s use in photovoltaics is likely to see their demand increase as global environmental standards tighten.
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.
This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.
This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.
Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.
Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.
The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.
ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.
Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.
If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.
• Investors have begun to rotate away from defensive assets such as gold and the Swiss Franc into cyclical assets such as industrial metals and oil
• More clarity about the form of UK leadership and a delay in cutting interest rates in the UK has seen Sterling shorts unwinding, but that vote of confidence was not shared by equity investors
Gold and CHF ETPs see first weekly outflows since Brexit, while goldminers see inflows. Gold prices declined 1.8% last week as some of the uncertainty around UK politics was assuaged with the appointment of a Prime Minister and the formation of a new Cabinet. Also the strong US payrolls data for the month of June proved to be gold-price negative. US$41.4mn flowed out of long gold ETPs. Long CHF ETPs, another defensive asset, saw outflows in order of US$21.8mn. The outflows from long gold ETPs were relatively small compared to the inflows of over US$1bn in the prior five weeks. While investors sold gold ETPs, they bought gold miner equity ETFs, possibly to capture equity market beta. Inflows of US$9.9mn into gold miner ETFs marked a 10 week high.
Investors rotate into industrial metals. Investors bought close to US$40.8mn of long broad industrial metal ETPs and a further US$27.4mn of long copper ETPs in a clear indication that the ‘risk-off’ mode expressed by markets earlier this month is fading. With Chinese industrial production, money supply, retail sales and GDP figures all beating expectations last week, we believe that sentiment toward industrial metals will continue to improve. Indeed with copper, zinc and nickel expected to remain in a production deficit this year, prospects for these metals look positive.
Crude oil ETPs see the largest inflows since April. Bargain hunting is back after oil prices fell to US$45/bbl from over US$51/bbl at the end of June. Last week we saw inflows of US$21.8mn into long crude oil products (the third consecutive week of inflows) and US$7.2mn of outflows from short crude oil products.
Investors reduce short GBP exposure but continue to short UK equities. We saw US$23.2mn of outflows from short GBP ETPs as confidence in the UK was partially restored and the Bank of England held off from delivering a widely expected rate cut. However, that vote of confidence was not shared by equity investors, who added US$9.2mn to short UK ETFs, marking the third consecutive week of inflows since Brexit and withdrew US$9.5mn from long UK equities.
Key events to watch this week. Markets will remain focused on the ECB press conference following the policy decision on Thursday. They will be poised for clues on whether the quantitative easing programme will be extended beyond March 2017. The Q2 Euro area bank lending survey, which will be released this week, may offer insights on the efficacy of programme.
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.
This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.
This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.
Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.
Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.
The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.
ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.
Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.
If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.
