Etikett: China A-shares

Markets capitulate but a respite is in sight

Markets capitulate but a respite is in sightMarkets capitulate but a respite is in sight

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Markets capitulate but a respite is in sight

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Highlights

•    Oversupply pulls oil benchmarks to their lowest in 3 months.
•    Chinese authorities show determination in arresting market capitulation.
•    Commodity currencies depreciate on commodity market correction.

We are unlikely to see an end to Greek saga this week, dramatic or otherwise. The deal announced this morning still needs to be approved by the Greek parliament. Given the staunch opposition to further austerity and rigorous monitoring we are likely to see further rounds of arduous negotiations. Chinese equities capped losses with 2 days of positive trading toward the end of last week, but the negative sentiment around the country’s performance has weighed on commodity prices as China remains the largest consumer of almost all commodities.

Commodities

Oversupply pulls oil benchmarks to their lowest in 3 months. Rising rig counts in the US, continued increase in OPEC oil production and a general lack of investment cuts by producers has kept global oil supply elevated. As we have long argued, the rebound in oil prices since March was unsustainable without supply cuts. In the past week WTI has fallen by 7.3% and Brent by 5.6%. These price declines are necessary to motivate producers to reduce output and move the market closer to balance. The International Energy Agency this week projects that the rebalancing process will extend well into 2016. Iranian nuclear discussions have seen another deadline missed without a final verdict but talks continue to press on. If sanctions against Iran are successfully lifted, more oil supply is likely to hit the market next year, making the job of cutting back on production elsewhere that more pressing.

Equities

Chinese authorities show determination in arresting market capitulation. After falling 35% between 12th June and 7th July, MSCI China A-Shares rose 5.8% on the 8th and 4.5% on the 9th July. One of the factors driving the initial fall was a tightening on margin financing. However, with the sharp decline in prices, the central bank used the China Securities Finance Corp, the state agency responsible for margin financing loan services to qualified securities companies, to inject funding into the equity market. Additionally the Chinese authorities are investigating claims of “malicious” short selling. The broader slowdown in economic growth in China is likely to be met with further interest rate cuts and other measures to ensure ample access to financing. The government has considerable resources to see that its reform agenda is not derailed by financial market woes or a sharp slowdown in the economy. The equity market will likely respond positively to the deployment of further easing.

Currencies

Commodity currencies depreciate on commodity market correction. Australian Dollar (AUD) fell 2.7%, Norwegian Krone (NOK) fell 2.0% and New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell 1.5% against the US Dollar as commodity fell sharply in the week. While oil prices may fall further to drive the necessary rebalancing of supply, other commodities are likely to rebound as prices are currently divorced from fundamentals. In the near-term NOK will continue to feel the pressure of lower oil prices, but AUD and NZD are likely to benefit from China’s expansionary policies that will likely lift the excessively negative sentiment in other cyclical commodities. The Bank of Canada will have a policy meeting this week. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg show 14 expect a cut while 13 expect rates to be maintained. Given the divided opinion, we believe CAD could be a key mover this week.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Greece Teetering on the Brink of Default

Greece Teetering on the Brink of Default

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Greece Teetering on the Brink of Default

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Highlights

•    Weather driving sharp movements in agricultural commodities.
•    Equity markets to price in default?
•    Haven demand and economic recovery fuelling US dollar higher.

A sharp re-pricing of risk is likely to follow Greece’s decision to hold the question of accepting its creditor terms to a referendum. Capital controls have been implemented to stem outflows from Greece’s banks while the ECB has frozen the Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Friday’s levels. Greece still owes the IMF €1.6bn tomorrow. Failure to pay could descend the country into chaos, marking the first sovereign default in the euro area since its creation. We believe that demand for defensive assets such as gold and the US dollar are likely to be key beneficiaries of the unfolding crisis.

Commodities

Weather driving sharp movements in agricultural commodities. Rain in the US delayed the harvesting of wheat and potential the sowing of soy, acting as a catalyst for price gains of 9.0% and 2.3% respectively. Meanwhile strong winds in Iowa and Illinois knocked over young corn stalks driving the price of corn up 5.2%. An acreage report from the USDA out tomorrow is likely to revise the estimates for planting of soy from what was expected to be a record high when the prospective planting survey was conducted in March. An intensifying El Niño weather pattern will likely see further disruption to crops this year. We believe that drier conditions in Australia, India and West Africa will drive wheat, sugar and cocoa prices higher. Better soy growing conditions in the US and South America that will result from an intensified El Niño will mitigate any lower planting intentions for soy, acting as a negative weight on price.

Equities

Equity markets to price in default? The continuing Greek debt saga led to choppy trading in Europe last week, with most bourses ending the week higher on optimism that some sort of deal would have been brokered over the weekend to avoid Greek defaulting on its IMF loan tomorrow. The referendum and capital controls now throw doubt as to whether a solution can be quickly found. European equity markets are faltering as a repricing of risk takes place. Meanwhile, the MSCI China A-Shares index has declined by closed to 20% in the past two weeks. While the Chinese domestic equity market has rallied more than 100% in the past year (even after the correction), the authorities are keen to the see that sentiment does not unravel. Over the weekend the People’s Bank of China cut interest rates by 25bps and lowered the reserve requirement ratio for small banks by 50bps.

Currencies

Haven demand and economic recovery fuelling US dollar higher. Greek financial woes drove the US dollar 2% higher against the Euro. The ongoing saga is likely to continue to favor the US dollar, as near-term solutions are likely to be met with more arduous negotiations. With the threat of an accident always around the corner, it is clear why haven currencies are sought after. While the Swiss franc has traditionally been treated as a haven currency, the Swiss National Bank has tried to lean against the wind with verbal intervention. After the SNB’s head declared its currency significantly overvalued, the currency declined 2.2% in the week against the US dollar. US non-farm payrolls due on Thursday and manufacturing ISM on Wednesday are two indicators that will be market will be looking at closely to assess whether the Fed is still on track to raise rates in September. Once the US starts to raise rates, we believe that increases will be gradual and highly data dependent. That could slow the pace of the current US dollar rally.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Is Volatility Here to Stay?

Is Volatility Here to Stay?

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Is Volatility Here to Stay?

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Highlights

Precious metals stage comeback as Greek negotiations falter.
Rollercoaster ride continues for China A-shares.
Euro defies potential of Greek exit.

The ongoing ‘deal or no deal’ saga has kept most asset markets on edge, as rising uncertainty spooks investors. We expect that volatility will begin to stabilise once we have greater clarity on the scope of a bailout and the conditions attached. To that end, we do not expect a ‘Grexit’ and feel that the ECB will stem any potential run on the Greek banking system via the ELA. Notwithstanding a stronger USD, gold appears well placed to add to recent gains the longer the Greek negotiations are drawn out, with benchmark equities already rebounding as investors appear to expect a near-term resolution.

Commodities

Precious metals stage comeback as Greek negotiations falter. Precious metals began to show their mettle, responding to the prolonged standoff between Greek officials and the Troika last week. Gold and silver led the way, their value to investors as monetary metals coming to the fore. While these gains could be unwound in the near-term if an agreement is reached, we expect further modest gains in coming months as the ECB and other major central banks continue down the money printing path. Meanwhile, El Niño continues to be the question mark for agricultural markets, potentially threatening both wheat and sugar supplies in H2 2015. Cocoa gained a further 6 % last week, as a tighter supply from Ghana and El Niño fears continued to support the market. However, grind demand has also been somewhat weak and could threaten the price bullish sentiment.

Equities

Rollercoaster ride continues for China A-shares. After MSCI announced that it would continue to keep the China A shares inclusion under review, focus has again turned to the amount of unwanted leverage in Chinese stocks. A crackdown by regulators on unauthorized margin lending has been the latest setback for China A shares, sending them tumbling over 6% last week. Despite the volatility, we expect further gains in the medium term, with valuations in line with historical averages and significant market cap growth potential. Meanwhile, volatility was a feature for European bourses also as they rebounded, tracking US benchmarks higher, as the threat of a Greek exit fades.

Currencies

Euro defies potential of Greek exit. The market view on EUR/USD is becoming increasingly polarized, with some expecting gains in the face of rising volatility. We expect downside risks to come more into play and would feel any near-term rally as an opportunity to establish short positions. Optimism over a Greek deal is weighing on the Euro in early trading. The FOMC meeting last week was interpreted relatively dovishly by the market and began the decline for the US Dollar, and coupled with investment flows that supported the Euro, it was one-way traffic last week. However, as concern over the Greek sovereign situation begins to stabilise, investors are again likely to focus on the fundamentals and the relative strength of the US economy. Current market pricing is indicating further USD strength against most G10 currencies this week. GBP has also been buoyant and we expect this to continue with evidence of rising wages raising expectations of tighter policy from the Bank of England. Last week’s retail sales data also surprised to the upside, highlighting the health of household balance sheets.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Greece The Dangerous Game of Brinkmanship Continues

Greece The Dangerous Game of Brinkmanship Continues

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Greece The Dangerous Game of Brinkmanship Continues

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Highlights

Energy rallies while agriculture pares recent gains.
China A-shares rally on positive indications from MSCI.
Commodity currencies diverge.

Talks between Greece and its creditors collapsed over the weekend adding a further blow to the country’s precarious financial situation after the IMF pulled out discussions last week. Euro-zone finance ministers will meet again on Thursday to try to break the impasse, but the willingness from either side to see a resolution appears to be wearing thin. Elsewhere, the Federal Open Market Committee will host a press conference and present its summary of economic projections after its rate decision, where no change is expected.

Commodities

Energy rallies while agriculture pares recent gains. Natural gas gained 7.6% last week, reversing the previous two week’s losses. Higher power demand driven by air-conditioning needs tend to drive up natural gas demand in the summer period. Above average temperature forecasts for the south east of the US were the catalyst for the recent gains. There were no surprises in the weekly natural gas in storage data with a net change of 111 Bcf, close to 113 Bcf expected. Both Brent and WTI continued to defy the lack of material supply tightening news, with both benchmarks gaining close to 5%. Crude oil prices appear to be reacting to higher demand forecasts, but we believe that the higher prices themselves are likely to choke off demand. Sugar declined a further 3.5% last week, to a 6 year low, driven mainly by a depreciating Brazilian Real exchange rate. The global glut in sugar continues to weigh on sentiment. The USDA surprisingly increased wheat supply forecasts for this year. Wheat had previously been rallying following excess rain in in the key growing areas in the US.

Equities

China A-shares rally on positive indications from MSCI. MSCI declared it is a matter of “when” and not “if” they will include domestically traded A-Shares to its Emerging Market benchmark. MSCI announced that is working with the China Securities Regulatory Commission on overcoming the final roadblocks to inclusion. Furthermore they said they will not necessarily wait to their annual index review to announce inclusion. If reform maintains its current pace, we are likely to see MSCI’s concerns on capital mobility, quota allocation and beneficial ownership quickly resolved. That would pave the way for domestically traded shares to enter the emerging market index that currently has approximately US$1.5tn benchmarked against it. European bourses meanwhile traded lower as concerns about Greece’s precarious finances linger.

Currencies

Commodity currencies diverge. Citing weak commodity prices, falling import prices and subdued wage inflation, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate last week driving the NZD lower. It also expressed concern that the currency is still overvalued despite depreciating since April, and that further rate cuts are possible. The Reserve Bank of Australia also remains dovish. Meanwhile the recent bounce in oil price has supported NOK and CAD, driving the commodity currencies apart. The lack of progress in Greece’s negotiations with its creditors continued to weigh on the Euro. With the IMF pulling out of discussions, the risk of a dramatic end to the standoff between the Greek government and its creditors has now increased. As long as the Fed continues to indicate it is on track to raise rates in September, we are likely to see the US dollar remain a key haven for investors.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Volatility Reigns as Policymakers Vacillate

Volatility Reigns as Policymakers Vacillate

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Volatility Reigns as Policymakers Vacillate

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Highlights

Agricultural commodities get boost from weather.

China A-shares investors waiting for MSCI.

USD weakness unlikely to last.

Volatility has been a pervasive force not only across asset classes, but across regions, as uncertainty over the global economic recovery lingers. Not only has ECB president Draghi warned investors to be prepared for more bond market volatility, but IMF Head Lagarde has muddied the waters by urging the US Fed to delay rate hikes despite an improving outlook because of the potential consequences that rising volatility and a strong USD could have. Indeed EM have not been excluded, with Chinese equities rebounding from recent slump, as optimism over the potential inclusion in the MSCI indices rises ahead of this week’s decision..

Commodities

Agricultural commodities get boost from weather. Coffee topped commodity gains, as the potential for crop damage during the Brazilian winter sparked fears of lower harvest. Stocks-to-use are at two year lows, so we expect adverse weather conditions to fuel the current rally. In the grains space, wheat also posted a better than 7% gain for the week, as hard winter wheat quality dipped and the threat of rainfall potentially delaying harvests. Meanwhile, as expected, OPEC maintained the status quo, keeping oil production unchanged. Clearly they are playing the long game. And investors anticipated the result, with managed money positions in ICE Brent crude futures have dropped by over 35% to the lowest level seen since early April. With US rig counts stabilising, commercial crude stocks have fallen for the fifth consecutive week. However, stocks remain significantly elevated compared to longer term averages and there is still scope for downside in crude prices.

Equities

China A-shares investors waiting for MSCI. After a sharp downturn for Chinese equities, a 7.5% surge back to over 7-year highs occurred last week, as investors betted that MSCI would decide (on Tuesday) to include China A-shares in its benchmark EM index. Such a move would be tempered and managed, with initial mainland allocations capped at just over 1%. Nonetheless, inclusion would see an influx of additional foreign funds, helping support the current rally. European equity slump continues on Greek concern. The threat of a Greek default remains the one factor holding back a concerted continuation of the rally that European equity benchmarks began in 2015. Despite bundling its IMF payment until end June, European equity volatility will remain until some clarity of whether a Greek debt agreement can be reached and the scope of such a deal.

Currencies

USD weakness unlikely to last. Volatility certainly has not been absent from currency markets, as policymakers prompted the EUR/USD to trade a wide 1.09-1.14 range last week. Despite the IMF’s insistence to delay rate hikes, the improving jobs environment is likely to keep the US Fed on a September rate hike path. A gradual and well communicated tightening cycle combined with the Fed maintaining a healthy balance sheet is unlikely to derail the US recovery, but it should keep the USD well supported. While US labour market conditions are a key indicator that the US Fed is looking at to give it justification for tighter policy, this week’s retail sales will also give better clarity on the health of household balance sheets and whether the Q1 weakness was a likely aberration. Meanwhile, GBP volatility is also likely to remain, with Governor Carney’s testimony on inflation to Parliament the key event of the week for UK investors.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

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