Etikett: OPEC

Markets Cheer Chinese Policy Easing

Markets Cheer Chinese Policy EasingMarkets Cheer Chinese Policy Easing

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Markets Cheer Chinese Policy Easing

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Premature crude oil rebound on lower inventory build.

Policy easing expectations drive MSCI China A higher.

Oil rebound lifts the Canadian Dollar and Norwegian Krone.

Today’s policy easing in China is likely to lift commodities that were underperforming due to fears of weak demand from their largest consumer. Chinese equity markets had already pre-emptied such a move and had rallied last week. Oil traded higher last week on optimism that supply could tighten after US inventories increased at the slowest rate all year. As a result, commodity currencies such the Norwegian Krone and Canadian Dollar benefited. The somewhat premature rally may see a correction if hard numbers fail to follow the optimism.

Commodities

Premature crude oil rebound on lower inventory build. Last week we saw the lowest weekly increase in US crude inventories this year. It was taken as a sign that the glut in oil production is starting to come under control. Both Brent and WTI gained approximately 10% on the news. However, the market appears to be overlooking the OPEC report out last week which highlighted that the cartel’s production surged by 810,000 barrels per day in March. The global oil glut looks far from being under control and the OPEC cartel’s quest for market share is likely to lead to a pull-back in prices in the short-term. Tin fell by close to 10% last week as Chinese tin production rose to the highest level since 1997. Wheat fell 5.1% as more rain than expected fell in the US in key growing areas.
.

Equities

Policy easing expectations drive MSCI China A higher. The MSCI China A-share index rose 5.6% last week. Even though Q1 2015 GDP met the target of 7%, industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all came in below expectations last week, increasing the odds that that People’s Bank of China will need to lower the policy setting. By the weekend the PBoC announced that it will reduce the reserve requirement ratio (RRR, the amount banks have to hold in reserves with the central bank and hence cannot lend out). The RRR still remains very high by international standards and we believe the PBoC will cut the RRR further. European bourses generally traded lower as negotiations between Greece and its international lenders drag on. The Eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers is due to meet on April 24th to discuss the reforms needed in return for further aid. The success or lack thereof will determine whether optimism in European markets will return this week.

Currencies

Oil rebound lifts the Canadian Dollar and Norwegian Krone. Both the Canadian and the Norwegian economies are strongly linked to the health of the oil market. With oil prices in sharp decline in recent months, it is no surprise that the currencies of both countries have been poor performers. The lowest US crude inventory build was a shot in the arm for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and the Norwegian Krone (NOK), it could be short-lived as the rally appears somewhat overdone in the near-term and net short futures positions are lengthening for CAD. Option pricing indicates that NOK is the most likely to decline against the USD. Meanwhile, the UK elections are likely to be the main focus for British Pound (GBP) investors, and the latest polls indicate that the result remains finely balanced. Election uncertainty will be a negative for GBP, so if volatility continues to rise, expect recent GBP gains to be quickly unwound.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Mexikanskt misslyckande?

Mexikanskt misslyckande?

Vi har i grunden en positiv inställning till Mexiko och hela Latinamerika, men hela denna region har under 2015 uppvisat ett katastrofalt dåligt resultat för sina andelsägare. För att understryka hur dåligt Latinamerika har utvecklats under året så kan det nämnas att tre av de tio sämsta börshandlade fonderna utan hävstång i år är ETFer som replikerar utvecklingen i någon av de latinamerikanska ekonomierna.

Under 2015 har iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF (NYSEArca: EWW) backat med 2,2 procent, och denna börshandlade fond är därför en av de latinamerikanska ETFer som klarat sig bäst. EWW har utvecklats dubbelt så bra, eller häften så dåligt, som iShares Latinamerica 40 ETF (NYSEArca: ILF), men nedgången är likväl dubbelt så stor som den som redovisas för MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

Mexiko är inte medlem i OPEC och har inte heller någon betydande exponering gentemot oljesektorn, men trots detta har de fallande oljepriserna drabbat landets aktiemarknad hårt eftersom Mexiko är en av Latinamerikas största oljeproducenter. Oljan står för 13 procent av Mexikos export och en tredjedel av budgetintäkterna.

Finansminister Luis Videgaray varnade i januari för att låga oljepriser kan tvinga regeringen genomföra en åtstramning av landets finanspolitik efter en nedskärning utgifterna. Mexikos ekonomi förväntas expandera, men har reviderats ned till 3,08 procent i år, jämfört med en beräknade 3,29 procent för en månad sedan och 3,85 procent i augusti.

De fallande oljepriser kom bara några månader efter Mexiko tillkännagav en rad reformer som skulle öppna landets energiverksamhet för utländska investeringar för första gången på årtionden.

Kombinationen av låga oljepriser och en svag peso har pressat mexikanska aktier och EWW. Peson har fallit med mer än 18 procent mot dollarn under det senaste året, en nedgång som har belyst fördelarna med den ofta förbisedda Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Mexico Hedged Equity Fund (NYSEArca: DBMX). DBMX, som säkrar sina innehavmot en depreciering av den mexikanska peson har i år faktiskt stigit. Pesons fall gentemot framförallt den amerikanska dollarn har lett till stora utflöden och att många investerare valt att lämna EWW. Under 2015 har EWW noterat utflöden på 457 MUSD i form av inlösen en nivå som överstiger det samlade utflödet för de börshandlade fonder som replikerar utvecklingen i Brasilien, Chile, Colombia och Peru tillsammans.

iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF

Markets Focus on Greece as Finance Ministers Meet

Markets Focus on Greece as Finance Ministers Meet

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Markets Focus on Greece as Finance Ministers Meet

Highlights

  • Rig count drop drives oil price rally.
  • Developed equity markets rise on growing optimism.
  • USD lifts on jobs, but can it sustain upward momentum?

An upside surprise in US jobs figures provided a lift to cyclical assets and the US Dollar last week. This week the market will focus on the Chinese inflation, money and loan supply data for signs that its central bank will have to ease policy further. Last week, the People’s Bank of China made broad cuts to the Reserve Requirement Ratio for the first time in over 2 years, making it easier for banks to lend. The Euro area Q4 2014 GDP release and Finance Ministers meeting on Greece this week will likely keep volatility in Europe high.

Commodities

Rig count drop drives oil price rally. Brent and WTI rallied 13% and 15% respectively last week on signs of tightening supply. According to Baker Hughes’ rotary rig count, there was a 16% contraction in US rig counts in January 2015. We believe that OPEC countries will see these developments as a positive move and will motivate a cut in its June 2015 meeting. We believe that the cartel will move with caution recognising that despite the recent reduction in rig counts, US production could easily rise once again. Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the cartel is reluctant to give up market share and will wage the price war as long as it takes to reassert its market dominance. News that Saudi Aramco has reduced its contract price for March Arab light crude in Asia may take some of the steam out of the recent rally. Elsewhere lean hog prices fell by 9.5% as the industry is showing signs of recovery from the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus that led to mass culling last year.

Equities

Developed equity markets rise on growing optimism. Developed equity markets regained ground lost from the disappointing Q4 US GDP release the week prior. The week ended with an upside surprise in jobs numbers in the US. With an increasing number of central banks across the globe willing to switch to an easing mode, equity markets are becoming confident that growth will not be allowed to stall. Poor manufacturing PMI data in China led to a 3.3% slump in the MSCI China A-Share index, which was only temporarily reversed by the cut in reserve requirement ratio by the country’s central bank. The recent rebound in oil has lifted sentiment toward Energy infrastructure Master Limited Partnerships with the Solactive US Energy Infrastructure MLP Index TR gaining 4.5% over the week. Gold miners advanced 4.2% last week, with gold price stability aiding their ascent.

Currencies

USD lifts on jobs, but can it sustain upward momentum? After the boost for the USD on the back of the better-than-expected payrolls numbers and with retail sales the only notable economic release in the US this week, moves against the USD are likely to be determined from other currency news. Eurozone GDP is likely to keep the pressure on the Euro. There is no evidence to indicate the Eurozone economic situation is improving and downside risks to the Euro are expected to increase going into the release. Both the UK and the Eurozone release industrial production data, giving an idea of whether the growth momentum in the UK is following downward in the wake of the Eurozone. Meanwhile, Governor Carney will again have to explain the reasons behind inflation falling well below target. Certainly oil price weakness is not helping and if the Governor indicates that lower oil prices could be a persistent cause of deflationary pressure, then the GBP will suffer as a result of fading rate tightening expectations.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Låga förväntningar på Latinamerika under 2015

Låga förväntningar på Latinamerika under 2015

I sin helhet har tillväxtmarknadsekonomierna, de så kallade emerging markets, och de börshandlade fonder som replikerar utvecklingen av dessa ekonomier återigen gjort investerarna besvikna under 2014. Latinamerika speciellt har varit en av de största besvikelserna och även om vi har ett gott öga till flera av de latinamerikanska ekonomierna, i synnerhet Mexiko, Chile och Colombia, så ser vi tyvärr inget som kan få denna trend att svänga på kort sikt. Låga förväntningar på Latinamerika under 2015

Morgan Stanley tror på en nedgång i Latinamerika, Jorge Kuri, Morgan Stanleys chef för aktieanalys för Latinamerika, skrev i en nyligen publicerad rapport att han tror att den dollardenominerade avkastningen för Latinamerika under 2015 kommer att uppgå till minst tio procent på nedsidan.

Om Morgan Stanley får rätt så betyder detta ett sjätte förlustår på raken för de latinamerikanska aktierna. Under 2014 har till exempel iShares Latin American 40 ETF (NYSEArca: ILF) backat med mer än 14 procent, mer än iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEArca: EEM) som endast backat med 6,4 procent. Vad som emellertid är värre är att ILFs relativa styrka i förhållande till EEM har minskat.

Samtliga latinamerikanska ETFer på minus

Samtliga latinamerikanska ETFer på minus, eller i alla fall de som replikerar utvecklingen i de sex länder som vi känner till har backat under 2014. Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (NYSEArca: ARGT) är den bästa av de ETFer som replikerar utvecklingen i ett latinamerikanskt land. ARGT har under 2014 backat med 3,1 procent.

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (NYSEArca: EWZ) och iShares MSCI Mexiko Capped ETF (NYSEArca: EWW), de två största landsspecifika ETFerna som följer latinamerikanska aktier har backat med i snitt 14 procent under förra året. Morgan Stanley har övervikt Mexiko, men undervikt Brasilien, enligt Barrons. Notera att den mexikanska centralbanken under 2014 sänkte landets styrränta i ett försök att få fart på landets ekonomi. EWW har en stor andel defensiva aktier, bland annat dagligvaror och telekombolag, vilket gör att denna ETF, precis som den mexikanska börsen i sin helhet, handlas till ett högt p/e-tal, betydligt högre än vad många andra emerging markets. Under de senaste månaderna har vi sett utflöden på cirka 20 MUSD från EWW, trots optimism om landets reforminriktade regering och ansträngningar för att öppna landets energiindustri för utländska investeringar för första gången på årtionden.

Energisektorn har en låg vikt i EWW, men likväl är Mexiko känsligt för förändringar i oljepriset då det endast är Ryssland som har ett högre beroende av oljeintäkter än Mexiko av länderna utanför OPEC. EWW har under det senaste kvartalet backat med cirka 13 procent, medan United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO) har fallit med nästan 40 procent.

iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF

Transient Weakness in Oil Prices

Transient Weakness in Oil Prices

Transient Weakness in Oil Prices Oil prices fell sharply last week after OPEC decided not to cut production.

While members of the oil cartel acknowledged that prices will remain weak unless production is curtailed, OPEC is not willing to bear the burden of such a decision alone.

We remain positive on oil in the long-term, but believe oil prices will remain under pressure until production is reduced.

WTI crude and Brent are now trading over 30% below the US$100/bbl level that is considered a “fair price” by most OPEC producers and that has historically been defended by OPEC. While weak global demand for oil and distillates combined with ample global supply of crude has weighed on both Brent and WTI prices over the past few months, OPEC inaction contributed to push oil prices below US$70/bbl.

Although OPEC resisted calls to cut production last week, highlighting the need for oil prices to find a new equilibrium, we believe the cartel will eventually have to reduce supply to help stabilise global oil prices. The cartel jointly produces approximately 40% of global oil output. While the US is gaining an increasing share of global output (by displacing oil imports through its own production) and Russia remains a formidable player, we believe it is too early to write off OPEC as an irrelevant cartel when it comes to setting global prices.

Key in the decision not to cut production was the split between OPEC and non-OPEC producers. Over the past few years, non- OPEC countries, particularly the US, have seen the majority of the growth in oil production, progressively taking market share away from OPEC countries. With the US not likely to cut its shale production at this stage, OPEC members are unwilling to take the burden alone.

OPEC has historically played a fundamental role in keeping oil prices above US$100/bbl but shale oil might have changed the shape of the industry permanently. Oil productivity and costs vary considerably across different shale formations (see chart opposite), with striking variances within areas of the same formation. While the marginal cost of production of oil as measured by the 90th percentile of the cost curve of the 50 largest oil and gas companies was estimated to be around US$92/bbl in 2011 (see chart on page 2), shale oil has become increasingly cheaper to produce. The IEA reckons 82% of crude oil and condensates production from the United States is still profitable at a price of US$60/bbl or lower

However, the majority of OPEC countries are estimated to require oil prices of at least US$90-US$100/barrel to balance their government budgets. While these countries can run budget deficits, the appetite to do so will wear thin as the cost of financing starts to increase. We believe that last week’s inaction increases the need for large cut at the June 2015 OPEC meeting.

Although price weakness is likely to continue through the first half of 2015, continued growth from the US and China, combined with a reduction in oil supply, will eventually bring the oil market back to balance with prices returning to trade around the US$90/bbl level. In the meanwhile, we deem appropriate to revise down our short/medium-term targets for WTI and Brent from US$105/bbl to US$70/bbl and from US$110/bbl to US$75/bbl as OPEC’s decision of not cutting production will continue to put pressure on prices. Once we start to see production cuts we expect WTI to move towards US$90/bbl and Brent towards US$95/bbl.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”).
Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this communication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This communication is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this communication nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication constitutes an advertisement within the meaning of Section 31 para. 2 of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz – WpHG); it is not a financial analysis pursuant to Section 34b WpHG and consequently does not meet all legal requirements to warrant the objectivity of a financial analysis and is also not subject to the ban on trading prior to the publication of a financial analysis.