Etikett: Central Banks

Commodity Supply Cutbacks in Focus, as Central Banks Dictate FX Moves

ETF Securities Commodity Supply Cutbacks in Focus, as Central Banks Dictate FX MovesCommodity Supply Cutbacks in Focus, as Central Banks Dictate FX Moves

Commodity & FX Outlook – Commodity Supply Cutbacks in Focus, as Central Banks Dictate FX Moves

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Highlights

•    Commodity supply is being cut back after 5 years of continuous negative price performance.

•    Low oil prices are keeping inflation measures subdued globally.

•    The outlook for interest rates and central bank stimulus will continue to be the dominant driver for G10 currency pairs

Commodity supply is being cut back after five years of continuous negative price performance. A number of commodities from copper, platinum, corn and even sugar are likely to be in a supply deficit this year. That will help eat into inventory that has built up over the years. Oil will remain in a supply surplus until at least the middle of next year, but the wheels are turning in the right direction, with upstream capital investment being cut back severely in the wake of the drop in oil price over the past year. We identify several shocks that could move commodity prices. Beyond the macroeconomic risks, that could see interest rate increases postponed (which would be gold price positive), weather risks could shock some commodities. We are currently in the most severe El Niño since 1997. Should history be a guide for the future, we could see corn, cocoa and sugar prices rise, while coffee, soy and US natural gas prices are likely to fall.

Low oil prices are keeping inflation measures subdued globally and this will encourage many central banks to continue their aggressive easing stance toward year end and into 2016. Indeed, it is only the US Federal Reserve that we expect to tighten policy this year. A result of the benign inflationary environment, central bank accommodation will continue to be a feature of the currency landscape for the foreseeable future. Policy rates will remain low or negative to support economies and this will predictably exert continued downward pressure on exchange rates. Currency wars will therefore remain a consequence of such stimulatory central bank policy, whether or not it is a stated direct policy objective or not.

The outlook for interest rates and central bank stimulus (alongside uncertainty over the Chinese economic growth path) will continue to be the dominant driver of G10 currency pairs. Volatility has been elevated as policy uncertainty roils markets and remains a key investor concern. Currency volatility has moderated recently and we anticipate more subdued volatility levels in Q4.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).

When being made within Switzerland, this communication is for the exclusive use by ”Qualified Investors” (within the meaning of Article 10 of Section 3 of the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act (”CISA”)) and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Commodity Currencies Come Under Pressure

Commodity Currencies Come Under Pressure

Trade Idea – Foreign Exchange Commodity Currencies Come Under Pressure

Pausing for a minute to reflect on something else apart from the Greek drama there are some interesting opportunities outside the EUR. Please find below some comments on the Commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NOK and NZD) which are likely to face headwinds in coming months. Pressure is likely to come from a temporary downside correction in oil prices and further easing of monetary conditions by central banks. We believe in the longer term, there is upside to the CAD and NOK unlike AUD and NZD where we believe rates will remain depressed (see: Outlook Q3-15: What Happens When Fundamentals Reassert Over Sentiment).

Oil Prices to Push CAD & NOK Lower

Commodity Currencies Look Set to Fall

Commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NOK and NZD) are likely to face headwinds in coming months. Pressure is likely to come from a temporary downside correction in oil prices and further easing of monetary conditions by central banks. We believe in the longer term, there is upside to the CAD and NOK unlike AUD and NZD where we believe rates will remain depressed (see: Outlook Q3-15: What Happens When Fundamentals Reassert Over Sentiment).

CAD & NOK – Oil Price Influence

Last year’s decline in oil prices has yet to dent global oil production. OPEC has kept production stubbornly high in effort to maintain market share, while US shale producers have managed to exploit efficiency gains in order to maintain output levels. The market has taken confidence from the first sign of strength in oil demand and still anticipates production cuts, which in the last few months, have kept oil prices well supported in the US$65-60 range.

Oil Prices to Push CAD & NOK Lower

We believe the rebound in oil prices in the early part of the year was slightly premature and could partially undermine rebalancing in the global oil market. As such we forecast global oil production remaining strong into next year, which is when the impact of announced capital expenditure cuts is likely to stem oil production from conventional sources. This should see oil prices fall further in the short term only to rally in the early part of next year.

In the last few days the Greek debt crisis and negotiations surrounding Iran’s nuclear program has prompted a retraction in oil prices. Investors are expressing concern over the potential impact on oil demand from an increasingly likely “Grexit” scenario and the introduction of Iranian crude onto global markets. Despite the yesterday’s price drop, we still see risks skewed to the downside for crude prices, creating a good opportunity to go tactically short both the CAD and NOK. Lower oil prices are likely to exacerbate growth concerns in both Canada and Norway and could prompt further currency depreciation, particularly against the US Dollar.

The AUD and NZD have both recently depreciated as both nations have witnessed the price of their primary commodity exports decline. In Australia, weak sentiment towards Chinese growth prospects and oversupply has caused the price of coal and iron ore to crumble. Similarly, in New Zealand excess global production and subdued demand has seen dairy prices collapse.

In response, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut benchmark interest rates in an attempt to buoy growth and stabilise falling inflation. Furthermore, in most recent media statements, both institutions have highlighted the importance of further currency devaluation in supporting economic objectives. Thus, we believe that further interest rate cuts could be in store, which makes the medium term outlook for both the AUD and NZD bearish. Given this outlook, we believe investors would likely benefit from acquiring short exposure to both AUD and NZD.

Commodity Export Prices Have Plunged

Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:

Currency ETPs
EUR Base

ETFS Long AUD Short EUR (EUAU)
ETFS Short AUD Long EUR (AUEU)
ETFS Long CAD Short EUR (ECAD)
ETFS Short CAD Long EUR (CADE)
ETFS Long NOK Short EUR (EUNO)
ETFS Short NOK Long EUR (NOEU)
ETFS Long NZD Short EUR (EUNZ)
ETFS Short NZD Long EUR (NZEU)

GBP Base

ETFS Long AUD Short GBP (GBAU)
ETFS Short AUD Long GBP (AUGB)
ETFS Long CAD Short GBP (GBCA)
ETFS Short CAD Long GBP (CAGB)
ETFS Long NOK Short GBP (GBNO)
ETFS Short NOK Long GBP (NOGB)
ETFS Long NZD Short GBP (GBNZ)
ETFS Short NZD Long GBP (NZGB)

USD Base

ETFS Long AUD Short USD (LAUD)
ETFS Short AUD Long USD (SAUD)
ETFS Long CAD Short USD (LCAD)
ETFS Short CAD Long USD (SCAD)
ETFS Long NOK Short USD (LNOK)
ETFS Short NOK Long USD (SNOK)
ETFS Long NZD Short USD (LNZD)
ETFS Short NZD Long USD (SNZD)

3x

ETFS 3x Long AUD Short EUR (EAU3)
ETFS 3x Short AUD Long EUR (AUE3)
ETFS 3x Long CAD Short EUR (ECA3)
ETFS 3x Short CAD Long EUR (CAE3)
ETFS3x Long AUD Short GBP (AUP3)
ETFS 3x Short AUD Long GBP (SAP3)
ETFS 3x Long AUD Short USD (LAU3)
ETFS 3x Short AUD Long USD (SAU3)

5x

ETFS 5x Long AUD Short EUR (EAU5)
ETFS 5x Short AUD Long EUR (AUE5)
ETFS 5x Long CAD Short EUR (ECA5)
ETFS 5x Short CAD Long EUR (CAE5)

Currency Baskets

ETFS Bullish USD vs Commodity Currency Basket Securities (SCOM)
ETFS Bearish USD vs Commodity Currency Basket Securities (LCOM)

The complete ETF Securities product list can be found here.

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The products discussed in this document are issued by ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (“FXL”). FXL is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission.

This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.
ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

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The Morgan Stanley Indices are the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated (”Morgan Stanley”). Morgan Stanley and the Morgan Stanley index names are service mark(s) of Morgan Stanley or its affiliates and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by ETF Securities Limited in respect of the securities issued by FXL. The securities issued by FXL are not sponsored, endorsed, or promoted by Morgan Stanley, and Morgan Stanley bears no liability with respect to any such financial securities. The prospectus of FXL contains a more detailed description of the limited relationship Morgan Stanley has with FXL and any related financial securities. No purchaser, seller or holder of securities issued by FXL, or any other person or entity, should use or refer to any Morgan Stanley trade name, trademark or service mark to sponsor, endorse, market or promote this product without first contacting Morgan Stanley to determine whether Morgan Stanley’s permission is required. Under no circumstances may any person or entity claim any affiliation with Morgan Stanley without the prior written permission of Morgan Stanley. 126

Deal or no deal…stability will be restored

Deal or no deal…stability will be restored

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Deal or no deal…stability will be restored

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Highlights

Grains post strong gains.

Is correction territory a buying opportunity for China?

Swedish and Swiss central banks go on the currency war offensive.

Defensive assets are likely to benefit from the uncertainty in Greece. The ‘No’ vote in the referendum yesterday received more than 60% of votes. Failure to make progress in debt negotiations elevates the risk of a default on the €3.5bn that is owed to the ECB on 20th July. Another default would almost certainly lead to the emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) being switched off and throw Greek banking system into an untenable position. While there is near term risk of greater volatility and downside equity risk, evidence of continued growth in the Eurozone and the US should help restore stability once the initial ‘event’  risk

Commodities

Grains post strong gains. Deteriorating growing conditions and lower acreage sown for corn and wheat saw the grains sector significantly outperform the broader commodities market. While Soybeans rode the grains momentum higher despite a record crop being planted in the US. Sugar also posted solid gains as the Indian monsoon season has begun to deteriorate. Compared to historical averages, rainfall was 14% lower than normal in June, potentially threatening the crop from the world’s second largest producer. An intensification of the El Niño could further exacerbate the disruption of crops, providing further price support. Soy is the likely exception, with an El Niño assisting growing conditions in South America. Meanwhile, the first increase in the US oil rig count has prompted crude price weakness, something that could gather momentum in the weeks ahead, if, as we expect oil production remains elevated and moves higher as rigs come back online.

Equities

Is correction territory a buying opportunity for China? Further stimulus by the People’s Bank of China last week was followed up by an easing in its crackdown on margin lending for equity market investments. The sharp slide in A-shares that the changes to margin lending rules has brought about has authorities concerned and policymakers are justifiably wary over excessive volatility and the potential threat to social stability. Policymakers are attempting to smooth the transition to market transparency and financial liberalisation and will likely continue to be supportive with fresh policy measures. The continuing Greek debt crisis prompted sharp losses across most European bourses last week and in early trading this week, as the Greek government defaulted on an IMF repayment and Greek Prime Minister continued to urge citizens to vote ‘No’ at last weekend’s referendum. Citizens duly responded, with 60% of the vote. Expect more downside risk and volatility or equity markets.

Currencies

Swedish and Swiss central banks go on the currency war offensive. Currency wars continue to be waged in the background, as the Greek crisis takes the headlines. The lack of clarity surrounding the fate of Greece has given investors no respite from currency volatility. The Swedish Riksbank cut rates further into negative territory (4th cut in 2015) and coupled with additions to its QE program, is keen to keep any currency gains in check (because long end rates remain elevated). The reason long-end rates are high is because of the lack of liquidity – a problem that larger central banks pursuing QE (the Fed, the ECB and BOJ) have not had to contend with. As a consequence, another issue is that the currency has strengthened more than expected, and hampers any benefit for the local economy. We expect the Riksbank will more closely target its currency in the future, as long as its QE program remains ineffective.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Unicorn or Trojan Horse?

Unicorn or Trojan Horse?

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Unicorn or Trojan Horse?

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Unicorn or Trojan Horse?

Cold weather gas rally.

Unicorn or Trojan Horse?

USD to remain buoyant as investors listen to central banks.

Late-week political wrangling over Greece’s request for an extension to its bail-out upset an otherwise strong week for cyclical assets.

While an eleventh-hour deal was struck, the lack of details could continue to temper market sentiment this week. Federal Reserve minutes revealed little urgency in raising interest rates despite a number of Fed officials indicating that June could be a potential date for increases. Meanwhile the Bank of Japan failed to increase quantitative easing, pointing to a better economic outlook, despite the poor GDP reading earlier in the week.

Commodities

Cold weather gas rally. US natural gas rose 5% last week as a cold weather snap drove up heating demand. According to Bentek Energy (an energy market analytics company), demand in the northeastern United States on Monday hit the highest level in its 10-year history of data, surpassing the previous high set in the polar vortex of January 2014. However, meteorological agencies expect the bitter cold in the east to pass and normal February weather to resume this week, which is likely to ease gas prices. We saw some flattening in the Brent futures curve this week, as the price of the front month contract moved higher while longer dated contracts fell. WTI fell across the whole curve, giving back some of last week’s gains. Coffee plummeted 8.9% as recent rain in Brazil lifted hopes of a better coffee crop.

Equities

Unicorn or Trojan Horse? The S&P500 and Russell 2000 hit fresh highs, gaining 0.4% and 1% respectively last week. The absence of inflationary pressures has kept equity markets in a jovial mood although political wrangling over Greece’s debt extension took the edge off performance in European bourses toward the end of the week. Indeed, even though EURO STOXX 50® Volatility fell 4.7% in the week up to Thursday, by Friday volatility was back to previous week levels. Nevertheless the FTSE MIB, FTSE 100 and DAX ended the week to Thursday 3.6%, 1.3% and 0.6% higher. The MSCI China A-Share Index rose 2.5% before the domestic Chinese equity markets closed for New Year festivities. Sentiment toward Chinese equities have continued to improve as further central bank easing looks likely..

Currencies

USD to remain buoyant as investors listen to central banks. The gradual improvement of economic activity in an environment devoid of inflationary pressure will keep currency volatility elevated as aggressive stimulus from central banks remains in place. While we initially thought the USD could suffer a near-term correction, it is unlikely to be this week with Fed Chair Yellen, ECB President Draghi amongst the key speakers this week. The takeaway message for investors will be that policy divergences between the US and the rest of the developed world are likely keep the USD supported as other central banks remain firmly in stimulus mode. While it appears that investors are discounting a mid-year rate hike by the Fed, Chair Yellen’s testimony should help bring market expectations back in line with the central banks tightening timing cycle. A stronger dollar is also likely to be reinforced if the CPI readings for the Eurozone, Japan and Canada disappoint, come in under expectations, a likely possibility with oil prices remaining depressed.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Central Banks Continue to Drive the FX Market

Central Banks Continue to Drive the FX Market

ETFS Currency Weekly Central Banks Continue to Drive the FX Market

A weekly overview of global currency market developments. The report details the past week’s performance of G10 currency pairs and currency baskets, directional model signals for the week ahead, longer-term consensus currency forecasts, futures market positioning data and a macroeconomic commentary on the FX market.

 

Summary

 

Subtle shift prompts strong reaction for the FOMC.

CAD benefiting from US growth.

BOJ keeps pressure on JPY.

 

 

 

Download the complete report (.pdf)

For more information contact

 

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

 

Important Information

General

 

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

 

Third Parties

 

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.