Watch out ags: La Niña is coming Yesterday the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) raised their forecast for a La Niña to 75% starting this Northern Hemisphere Autumn. While meteorologists are often wary about putting out forecasts with such confidence before June, the combined cooling of sea surface and underwater temperatures has helped their assertion. In all 6 occasions since 1979 when there has been cold subsurface water temperatures during spring, a winter La Niña has emerged.
La Niña weather events typically bring cooler, wetter weather to South America, Southern Africa, Australia, Indonesia, Canada and parts of the US.
Looking at historical La Niña episodes that started in the Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter, our analysis shows that most agricultural prices fell one year after the event hit a moderate intensity. The notable exception is sugar. Many South American crops benefit from reduced drought risk and heat damage. US winter wheat typically benefits from better snow cover. We expect that most of these crop impacts will be seen in 2017.
Earlier this week, the US Department of Agriculture released its initial assessment of US and world crop supply and demand prospects for 2016/17. While market prices rallied on the back of reduced ending stocks, production forecasts for 2016/17 US corn, wheat and soybean beat Bloomberg consensus forecasts. The projections for world corn and soy production in 2016/17 were also higher than production in 2015/16. While these forecasts are highly tentative (planting of the crops in many cases has not even taken place yet), if they materialise, soy and corn prices are likely to fall.
Watch out ags: La Niña is coming
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities
Niteshis a Commodities Strategist at ETF Securities. Nitesh has 13 years of experience as an economist and strategist, covering a wide range of markets and asset classes. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Nitesh was an economist covering the European structured finance markets at Moody’s Investors Service and was a member of Moody’s global macroeconomics team. Before that he was an economist at the Pension Protection Fund and an equity strategist at Decision Economics. He started his career at HSBC Investment Bank. Nitesh holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master of Arts in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University (USA).
Kan denna råvara stå inför stora problem? Under början av april såg vi hur Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSEArca: CORN) falla efter nyheter om växande lager med och också ökad plantering trots att det redan finns ett stort överutbud på marknaden. Nu ser flera råvaruanalytiker potentiella kortsiktiga problem för majspriset, och de säger att de tror att denna råvara kan stå inför stora problem.
Spannmålspriserna föll efter det att amerikanska Department of Agriculture beräknat att amerikanska bönder skulle så 93,6 miljoner majs tunnland, jämfört med 88 miljoner förra året vilket översteg analytikernas prognoser om 90,05 miljoner tunnland.
CORN är en börshandlad fond, mer korrekt en ETC då den endast erbjuder investerarna en direkt och obelånad exponering mot majspriset. Teucriums majsfond är utformad för att minska effekterna av backwardation och contango.
I dagsläget kostar det mer att producera spannmål i den amerikanska mellanvästern än vad de handlas till på råvarubörserna. De amerikanska spannmålsodlarna ser fram mot den lägsta inkomsten på 14 år då de spås förlora 50 USD per tunnland de sått. Enligt USDA kommer nettojordbruksinkomsterna att sjunka till 54,8 miljarder dollar under 2016, den lägsta nivån sedan 2002 och hälften av inkomsterna under 2012.
Prispress på jordbruksprodukter
De pressade priserna på jordbruksprodukter i kombination med lägre jordbruksintäkter i USA kan komma att spilla över på den globala jordbruksnäringssektorn och relaterade börshandlade fonder. De börshandlade fonder som kan drabbas hårdast är
Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSEArca: MOO)
PowerShares Global Agriculture Portfolio (NYSEArca: PAGG)
IQ Global Agribusiness Small Cap ETF (NYSEArca: CROP)
iShares MSCI Global Agriculture Producers ETF (NYSEArca: VEGI)
ETFer med fokus på jordbruksnäringen följer utvecklingen av globala företag inom jordbrukssektorn. De flesta av dessa börshandlade fonder har valt att allokera cirka hälften av sitt kapital till USA, medan cirka 20 procent har investerats i vardera Europa och Asien. Dessa börshandlade fonder investerar i jordbruksföretag som tillhandahåller produkter som gödningsmedel, jordbrukskemikalier, jordbruksmaskiner, förpackade livsmedel och kött.
Ökad majsplantering på bekostnad av vetet
Det förefaller emellertid som den ökade majsplanteringen sker på bekostnad av vetet, där de ekonomiska förutsättningarna varit – och fortfarande är – mycket värre än för majs. Även på ytan verkar det som trenden för majspriserna är lägre, särskilt om USDA är korrekt, och vi kommer att få se en produktionsökning om ytterligare en halv miljard bushels majs under 2016 så finns det många analytiker som ifrågasätter USDAs uppskattningar. Det är framförallt osäkerheten kring väderprognoserna så här pass tidigt på planteringssäsongen som gör att det är svårt att lägga alltför stor vikt vid USDAs siffror. Om vårbruket blir våtare än normalt, det vill säga om nederbörden är för hög, kan det leda till att många spannmålsodlare väljer bort majs och istället satsar på sojabönor. Skulle detta scenario inträffa, kan vi få se hur USDAs planteringuppskattningar sänkas då vi går igenom planteringssäsongen.
Majs
Pris på majs i USD cent per bushel, på Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Du kan se aktuellt pris på terminen närmast förfall* samt diagram över historiska värden. Håll muspekaren över grafen för att se historiska majspriser i siffror. Du kan även välja hur detaljerad historik som ska visas, från priser per 5 minuter till 1 vecka.
*Dagen efter fredagen innan First Notice Day börjar priset för nästa termin att visas.
Confusion around China’s currency policy drives volatility across the commodity complex. With many market participants thinking the change in Chinese currency policy was a competitive devaluation rather than a move to introduce more market dynamics, fears that the authorities have become desperate to reignite economic growth has led to a sell-off in cyclical commodities. At the same time, the gold price has benefited, reversing some of the negative sentiment towards the metal we have seen in past months. As the dust settles, we believe that industrial metals will grind higher as supply tightens and the market realises that Chinese demand is not bad as feared. Although consensus expectations are for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, recent Fed minutes indicate it is not a sure thing and so some of the US dollar pressure on commodities may ease. The capitulation in oil prices has driven demand higher and will likely provide high-cost producers the incentive to cut back on production. US$200bn of capex cuts have announced across the oil and gas sector, which will help the market come closer to balance as we move toward year-end and into 2016.
Strengthening El Niño to become a catalyst for wheat, corn, cocoa and sugar prices in coming months. While plentiful supplies have led to wheat, corn and sugar price declines over the past month, an intensifying El Niño is likely to impact sensitive growing periods for these crops and drive prices higher.
Uncertainty around Chinese currency policy reinstates gold’s haven status. In recent weeks gold has increased as China’s change in currency policy caught investors off-guard. That contrasts the waning defensive role of the metal during the worst of the Greek financial crisis.
Negative sentiment surrounding the Chinese growth outlook weighs on industrial metals. Renminbi depreciation has prompted speculation that the outlook for economic growth will not favour Chinese metal demand. At the margin the stronger US Dollar has also adversely impacted industrial metals prices.
Oil prices capitulate as OPEC production hits a 3-year high. Higher OPEC production and rising US rig counts have driven prices sharply lower. We believe that these low prices are likely to drive non-OPEC, non-US, high-cost production down, shifting global market share.
For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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Utdragen El Niño kan leda till spannmålsrally Ett stort antal meteorologer har aviserat att de ser förutsättningar för en utdragen El Niño, något som i sin tur kan leda till utbudsstörningar. Detta gäller för börshandlade grödor i allmänhet men även för de råvaror som brukar benämnas softs. Det betyder att även de börshandlade fonder som replikerar utvecklingen av spannmål och softs kan stå inför en kommande prisuppgång.
Under den senaste månaden har Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSEArca: CORN) stigit med 11,1 procent, Teucrium Soybean Fund (NYSEArca: SOYB) har stigit med 4,6 procent och Teucrium Wheat Fund (NYSEArca: WEAT) har ökat med 6,0 procent.
Den diversifierade ETNen iPath Bloomberg Grains Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSEArca: JJG) som representerar en korg av spannmål. Fördelningen är majs(45,3 procent), sojabönor (35,4 procent) och vete (19,3 procent), har under den senaste månaden stigit med 10,7 procent. United States Agriculture Index Fund (NYSEArca: USAG) som är en ETF som äger både jordbruksråvaror och softs. USAG ger sina innehavare en exponering mot råvaror som till exempel sojabönor, majs, vete, kakao, lean hogs, kakao, kaffe och bomull. Under den senaste månaden har denna börshandlade fond stigit med 7,5 procent. Teucrium Agricultural Fund (NYSEArca: TAGS) som har en likaviktad exponering mot socker, vete, majs och sojabönor har stigit med 7,8 procent under den senaste månaden.
Sannolikheten ligger på 80 procent
The Climate Predictions Center som ingår i National Weather Service anser att sannolikheten nu ligger så pass högt som 80 procent för att vi kommer att få se hur väderfenomenet El Niño fortsätter under våren 2016 i den norra hemisfären. Tidigare metereologiska rapporter har förutspått att väderfenomenet skall fortsätta under vintern 2015/2016. El Niño som är ett väderfenomen, brukar leda till att yttemperaturen i Stilla Havet stiger, något som kan leda till kraftig nederbörd och översvämningar i Sydamerika samt torka i Asien och i Östafrika. The Climate Predictions Center varnar nu för att effekterna av El Niño kan intensifieras under senhösten och vintern.
Den huvudsakliga orsaken till varningen är att temperaturen i Stilla Havet just nu är varmare än normalt vid denna tid på året. De förändrade väderförhållandena kan komma att påverka priset på jordbruksråvaror framöver, speciellt i samband med planteringssäsongenen i september. Det är sannolikt att Australiens högproteinhaltiga veteskörd som odlas i landets östra delar kommer att drabbas av torrare förhållanden. Produktionen av sojabönor i Indien, Asiens näst största producent, kan komma att drabbas negativt av torka i landets centrala och västra delar. Majsproduktionen i Kina och Indien kan också komma att drabbas negativt. Det betyder emellertid att amerikanska och sydamerikanska spannmålsodlare kan exportera sin gröda till Asien. Det innebär således att en utdragen El Niño kan leda till spannmålsrally eftersom det uppstår en okad konkurrens om det spannmål som produceras i Nord- och Sydamerika.
ETFS Platinum (PHPT) received its highest weekly inflow since November 2014.
ETFS Sugar (SUGA) sees its highest ever inflow.
Long oil ETPs continue to see inflows.
ETFS Corn (CORN) sees highest inflows since February 2014.
ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU) saw the highest outflows since June 2014.
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee sent a mixed message, acknowledging the softness in prices while pointing to strength in economic expansion and jobs. US Dollar appreciated, focusing on the implications of economic strengthening on the likelihood of a rate rise. Most US Dollar priced commodities fell. The optimism in economic activity may sit at odds with the slightly disappointing GDP figures released later last week and this week’s jobs numbers could drive a reversal in Dollar strength (and hence commodity price weakness) if they prove to be disappointing.
ETFS Platinum (PHPT) received its highest weekly inflow since November 2014. US$32.8mn flowed into PHPT last week. Platinum had rallied 6.6% since the beginning of the year before last week’s 3.6% correction trimmed the gains down to 2.2%. Investors appear to be buying into price dips. Global car sales have continued to rise, supporting demand for the metal that is used in autocatalysts.
ETFS Sugar (SUGA) sees its highest ever inflow. In a week of plummeting prices, SUGA saw US$42.9mn of inflows, more than double the next highest weekly inflow into the product in 2008. Sugar prices fell on the back of rain in Brazil providing relief to stressed land. Brazil is the world’s largest producer of raw sugar. India, the second largest producer, is currently deciding on how much export subsidies to award its cash-strapped sugar industry. Some of the recent volatility in prices has been driven by speculation on the size of this subsidy.
Long oil ETPs continue to see inflows. WTI and Brent ETPs have respectively seen 18 and 7 consecutive weeks of inflows. Despite price declines over most of that period, investors appear convinced that prices will increase. We believe that supply will tighten as loss-making non-OPEC oil rigs are progressively switched off. Last week a 7% fall in rig counts in the US drove a late-week price rally. OPEC will also likely cut production in the second half of the year once the rest of the world has demonstrated their willingness to pull back.
ETFS Corn (CORN) sees highest inflows since February 2014. Bargain-hunting drove US11.0mn of inflows into CORN. Corn price fell 3.2% last week, 10.0% over the past month. With bumper production last year, many expect reduced planting this year to help stabilise the market.
ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU) saw the highest outflows since June 2014. Reversing part of the US$163.8mn inflows from the previous week, US$108.5mn of outflows last week tracked the 2.1% decline in gold price. While there was no immediate fallout from the change in Greek government, the risk of surprises in the bail-out renegotiation process could drive haven demand for gold higher in coming months.
Key events to watch this week. After last week’s disappointing US Q4 GDP figures, the market will focus on the US jobs market data this week for signs of further economic stress. A weak payrolls reading will be seen as a cue for the Federal Reserve to delay rate rises that are expected in September this year. The market is currently looking for 233,000 new jobs added in January. The Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia are due to have their respective policy rate meetings this week. While no rate changes are expected, commodity price weakness could tip the balance for the RBA as it had done for the Bank of Canadian two weeks ago.
Video Presentation
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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