Etikett: dbc

Är det dags för råvarorna att vända upp igen?

Är det dags för råvarorna att vända upp igen?Är det dags för råvarorna att vända upp igen?

Är det dags för råvarorna att vända upp igen? Vi ser hur fler och fler investerare åter ger sig in på råvarumarknaderna, både genom att köpa råvaror direkt men också de börshandlade fonder som replikerar avkastningen av dessa. De gör detta som en direkt effekt av en globalt starkare ekonomi, en svagare dollar och låga priser, något som tillsammans lockar till bottenfiske.

Under den senaste månaden har Powershares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (NYSEArca: DBC) ökat med 3,8 procent, iPath Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total Return ETN (NYSEArca: DJP) stigit med 2,2 procent och iShares GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (NYSEArca: GSG) gett sina ägare en värdeökning om 7,3 procent.

De stigande oljepriserna lyfter hela denna tillgångsklass, tillsammans med återhämtningar för koppar, socker, guld och andra typer av insatsråvaror.

Energirelaterade råvaror har vanligen den största vikten i en bred råvaru-ETF

Under den senaste månaden har United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO) stigit med 21,1 procent, iPath Dow Jones-UBS Sugar Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSEArca: SGG), med 1,2 procent och SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD) har ökat med 1,0 procent. Energirelaterade råvaror har vanligen den största vikten i en bred råvaru-ETF. I DBC har Brent 12,4 procents vikt, vilket även heating oil, RBOB och light crude har. Naturgas svarar för 5,5 procent. I DJP har Brent en vikt om 8,5 procent, naturgas om 8,3 procent, WTI 8,2 procent och blyfri bensin 5,2 procent och heating oil 4,3 procent.

Vissa institutionella investerare ser en möjlighet på råvarumarknaden efter de kraftiga utförsäljningarna i denna tillgångsklass under 2014, något som gör att det möjligt att köpa råvaror till priser som är mycket nära bottennivåerna. Samtidigt finner många investerare att det är hoppfullt att det sker stimulanser i Europa och att den amerikanska tillväxten upprätthålls. Till exempel har oljan varit bland de mest populära råvarorna under senare tid. Samtidigt har flera förvaltare siktat in sig på kopparn som nyligen bottnat ut. En fortsatt global återhämtning som drivs av en stark tillväxt i USA och en återhämtning i Eurozonen samtidigt som dollarns uppgång mot andra valutor tar en paus kan bidra till att råvarorna blir årets vinnare.

Kopparpriset

TAARSS says prefer International DM such as Europe and Japan

TAARSS says prefer International DM such as Europe and Japan Deutsche Bank – Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy – Global

The Flow Whisperer – TAARSS says prefer International DM such as Europe and Japan

Download the complete report

Tactical Asset Allocation Relative Strength Signal (TAARSS) Monthly Update
Top recommendations for March: European equities and Germany with currency hedge, Japan, US Aerospace & Defense, and Indian equities.
Market review

Risky assets received a boost in February with Global equities (ACWI) and Commodities (DBC) rising 5.5% and 4.4%, respectively. While US bonds (AGG) lagged behind losing 0.9% on rising rates concerns.
TAARSS rotation strategy monthly performance review

Last month, monthly TAARSS strategies outperformed or were in line with their benchmarks; while quarterly rotation strategies have been mixed QTD.

Tactical positioning for March 2015 based on TAARSS

Within equities we see strong investment demand support in DM Intl, and neutral support for the US, and EM for March. Within regions prefer Europe (with FX hedge) followed in the distance by Asia Pacific, remain neutral North America, and away from Latin America. Within the US, we again prefer Small and Mid Caps over Large Caps for March, or a total market or equal weighting approach. In terms of sectors, flows suggest a rotation into Global Cyclicals (Materials, Energy) away from Domestic Cyclicals, while maintaining some Defensives (Cons. Staples, Health Care) exposures. In International DM countries we see increased investor confidence, prefer Germany (with FX hedge) or Japan. For EM equities we continue to see India with the strongest support. Among other equity themes we see good support for US Aerospace & Defense. In fixed income, signals suggest credit over rates via US Corporate Debt (HY and IG). Lastly for commodities, we continue to see some support to Energy, but remain cautious.

TAARSS says prefer Intl DM and EM equities in May

TAARSS says prefer Intl DM and EM equities in May

Deutsche Bank – Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy – Global TAARSS says prefer Intl DM and EM equities in May

The Flow Whisperer – TAARSS says prefer Intl DM and EM equities in May
04 May 2015 (22 pages/ 827 kb)

Download the complete report

Tactical Asset Allocation Relative Strength Signal (TAARSS) Monthly Update

Top recommendations for May: Intl DM, EM, Hong Kong, and Indian equities, and Energy Commodity.

Market review

Risky assets had a good month in April with Global equities (ACWI) and Commodities (DBC) advancing by 2.9% and 7.1%, respectively. While US bonds (AGG) edged slightly lower by 0.3%.

TAARSS rotation strategy monthly performance review

The monthly equity regional and market, and the commodity sector TAARSS rotations recorded the best results of our model for the month of April.

Tactical positioning for May 2015 based on TAARSS

This month in global equity markets prefer Intl DM and EM, and stay neutral to the US. Region wise prefer Europe and Asia Pacific, with some Latin America exposure, while keeping a minimal allocation to North America. In US equities prefer Small and Mid caps over Large caps. Sector wise Defensives ex Utilities present the best support in the US, especially Telecom. Domestic Cyclicals are experiencing some selling pressure. In Intl DM countries prefer Hong Kong, Japan, and Germany. Within EM countries, most of them experienced positive support with India continuing to show strong investment demand support despite its second month of performance setback; in addition, China, Mexico, and Russia also exhibited some noteworthy support. In Fixed Income we did not see any notable flow trend readings. Within commodities, we saw some positive developments for energy. See Figure 13 and Figure 14 for full allocation details for the month of May.

PowerShares återöppnar elva börshandlade fonder

PowerShares återöppnar elva börshandlade fonder

PowerShares återöppnar elva börshandlade fonder Invescos (NYSE: IVZ) Powershares, som är USAs fjärde största utgivare av börshandlade fonder, har indikerat att Powershares återöppnar elva börshandlade fonder som tidigare varit aktuella för nedstängning.

På onsdag är det tillfälligt stopp för utgivandet av nya andelar i elva börshandlade fonder, inklusive Powershares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSEArca: UUP), en ETF som replikerar utvecklingen av US Dollar Index.

Utöver UUP kommer följande av PowerShares ETFer att handlas igen:

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (NYSEArca: UDN)
PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (NYSEArca: DBC)
PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest Fund (NYSEArca: DBV)
PowerShares DB Energy Fund (NYSEArca: DBE)
PowerShares DB Oil Fund (NYSEArca: DBO)
Powershares DB Precious Metals Fund ETF (NYSEArca: DBP)
Powershares DB Gold Fund ETF (NYSEArca: DGL)
PowerShares DB Silver Fund (NYSEArca: DBS)
PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund (NYSEArca: DBB)
PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSEArca: DBA).

Det är möjligt att marknadsvärdet på de börshandlade fondernas aktier kan påverkas av ett återupptagande av utgivande av andelar i fonderna, och marknadsvärdet kan vara högre eller lägre än det intraday vägledande värde på aktierna säger Illinois-baserade Powershares i ett uttalande.

TAARSS says prefer a mix of bonds and equities in Q1

TAARSS says prefer a mix of bonds and equities in Q1

Deutsche Bank – Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy – Global
The Flow Whisperer – TAARSS says prefer a mix of bonds and equities in Q1

Download the complete report:

Tactical Asset Allocation Relative Strength Signal (TAARSS) Monthly Update

In Q1, prefer fixed income, followed by equities, and away from commodities. Still prefer longer maturities, but lower the duration within fixed income.

Market review

The end of the year brought additional weakness to Commodities (DBC) and Global equities (ACWI) which lost 9.65% and 2.37%, respectively. While US Bonds (AGG) edged higher by 0.15%.

TAARSS rotation strategy quarterly and monthly performance review

Monthly and quarterly TAARSS strategies were mostly negative in December and Q4, respectively. However performance relative to benchmarks was mixed. In December, monthly strategies outperformed their benchmarks on the equity side; while they lagged their benchmarks outside equities. In Q4, the multi asset rotation outperformed most of its benchmarks, while the fixed income duration rotation outperformed its benchmark.

Tactical positioning for Q1 and January 2015

Unlike Q4, TAARSS signals suggest better investment demand support, and hence less volatility, for fixed income and equities in Q1. More specifically, TAARSS recommends a balanced allocation to fixed income and equities; away from commodities during Q1 2015. Within fixed income, TAARSS still recommends a preference for long term duration, but with some intermediate exposure for the current quarter.
For the month of January, TAARSS equity positioning indicates a preference for the US with some international DM exposure; and away from EM. Overall prefer North American equities, stay neutral towards Europe and Asia Pacific, and away from Latin America. For the US, a broad exposure seems appropriate, but with overweight to Small Caps; sector wise prefer Defensive sectors or Consumer Discretionary in the US. Specific DM countries seem weak across the board; prefer regional exposures with currency hedge, if desired. In EM countries prefer India and China. Other interesting equity themes are Infrastructure and Transportation. In terms of fixed income sectors, TAARSS favors MBS, Convertibles, Intl DM debt, and Municipals while steering away from EM debt and Senior Loans. Avoid commodities, according to TAARSS.