Etikett: El Niño

Markets Calm before Fed Decision

Markets Calm before Fed DecisionMarkets Calm before Fed Decision

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Markets Calm before Fed Decision

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Highlights

•    Commodities: Persistent surplus weighs on oil prices.
•    Equities: Global equity market sell off continues amid weaker PMI and US payrolls data.
•    Currencies: Dollar stages a comeback after August jobs report

The US Federal Open Market Committee will convene this week to discuss raising interest rates. We don’t believe they will pull the trigger on this occasion, given the uncertainty surrounding the deceleration of China and Europe and elevated financial market volatility. The last time the central bank increased rates was in 2006 and will not take this decision lightly. A policy reversal will be costly for the Fed’s reputation and we think the central bank will err on the side of caution while it assess whether these risks are likely to drive price expectations lower or hurt labour market prospects. A surprise rate rise could be gold price negative.

Commodities

Intensifying El Niño conditions drive agriculture prices higher. Cocoa rose 5.4% as El Niño drives dryness into West Africa where the majority of the world’s cocoa is grown. Wheat and corn prices rose ahead of the WASDE report by 2.5% and 3.5% respectively. El Niño could reverse some of the strong rains seen in Australia so far this season, hurting the wheat crop currently growing. US corn is currently vulnerable to weather changes. On the 15th September CONAB will release its Brazilian coffee harvest estimate. This report will end months of speculation about the size of the crop. There has been heightened uncertainty because of the highly volatile weather Brazil has experienced this season. Oil gave back part of the prior week’s gains. A surprisingly high inventory build led to a decline in of Brent 3.5% and fall in WTI of 1.8%.

Equities

Equity markets stabilise in a shortened week. The VIX (options implied volatility of the S&P 500) stabilised albeit above its long term historical trend with the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indices in the US finishing the week marginally higher. The MSCI China A-Share has given back of all of last week’s gains today after the release of weaker than expected industrial production. Labor Day and Victory Day respectively shorted the US and Chinese trading weeks. European bourses trended lower despite an upward GDP growth revision indicating that economic conditions are somewhat better than previously assumed. However, the looming threat of US rate rises and global financial market conditions tightening gave European markets little cause for cheer.

Currencies

Central banks continue to drive FX markets. The Kiwi depreciated last week as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts rates. This week, the FX market’s focus will be on the Fed’s rate decision. Consensus is still looking for a rate rise this week, but the futures market indicates that a rate rise is more likely in December. There is also scepticism about December, given that financial market liquidity is usually low in that month. While domestic conditions in the US may be looking healthy, the threat of global conditions unravelling the momentum remains at large. The Swiss National Bank and Bank of Japan, two other policy makers of haven currency countries will host their respective monetary policy meetings, revealing their interpretation of recent financial market turmoil. We expect dovish rhetoric to depreciate the JPY and CHF.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Market Madness Abates

Market Madness Abates

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Market Madness Abates

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Highlights

Commodities: China concerns overdone. The market clearly over-extrapolated the consequences of the Chinese equity market rout.

When China catches a cold…. Global markets initially reeled as Chinese equities plunged again.

Currencies: Volatile asset performance pushes rate expectations out further.

A volatile week saw the VIX rise over 40, an occasion last seen during the US federal debt ceiling impasse and European financial woes of 2011. The price of many cyclical assets fell sharply before rising once again. Unusual for the summer, the sharp declines in price were accompanied by high trading volumes, indicating that algorithmic trades were driving much of the action. Void of any fundamentals driving the decline, most assets recovered a significant portion of their losses, with some cyclical assets like oil, copper and US equities (S&P 500) ending the week higher.

Commodities

China concerns overdone. The market clearly over-extrapolated the consequences of the Chinese equity market rout. Falling Chinese equity prices themselves are unlikely to impact the real economy in any significant way and therefore will have minimal impact on the country’s demand for raw materials. However, the spill-over effects of lower interest rates and liquidity injections could help commodity demand. After sharp declines in the first half of the week, industrial metal prices started to recover. Copper ended the week higher. Over the past three sessions, oil has rebounded 27%, driven by indications that OPEC may cut production, below-expectations US oil inventories and a downward revision in US oil production. Sugar gained 4.1% last week with a strengthening El Niño driving a poor monsoon in India. In the week to 26th August rainfall was 37% below normal, 12% below normal for the season as a whole.

Equities

When China catches a cold…. Global markets initially reeled as Chinese equities plunged again. Historically, Chinese and developed market equities have had a very low correlation and so last week’s moves were curious. By the end of the week, most developed markets recovered their losses. Last week’s rise in US equity market volatility was unmatched since 2011 when talk of a sovereign default was the only motivator to get the country’s debt ceiling extended. Chinese equities, the epicentre of last week’s saga, failed to recover. The MSCI China A-Share index fell 8.5% despite a cut in interest rates, a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and further liquidity injections by the authorities. Excessive support for the equity market is distortionary and could hurt long-term performance. It would be better for the authorities to endure short-term volatility to pave the way for a more robust growth path.

Currencies

Volatile asset performance pushes rate expectations out further. The probability of a rate hike in September fell further according to Fed Fund futures rates. While St. Louis Fed President James Bullard tried to distance the volatile asset markets from strong US fundamentals, William Dudley, New York Fed President conceded that the case to raise rates in September was less compelling. The US dollar has depreciated as the rate differentials narrowed. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar took the brunt of the pain from volatile commodity markets. Barring a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia this week, the AUD should recover alongside underlying commodities. Haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc appreciated amidst the market chaos, although gold failed to hold up gains seen in previous weeks. The ECB policy meeting and US payrolls data will remain the focus of the FX markets this week.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Utdragen El Niño kan leda till spannmålsrally

Utdragen El Niño kan leda till spannmålsrally

Utdragen El Niño kan leda till spannmålsrally Ett stort antal meteorologer har aviserat att de ser förutsättningar för en utdragen El Niño, något som i sin tur kan leda till utbudsstörningar. Detta gäller för börshandlade grödor i allmänhet men även för de råvaror som brukar benämnas softs. Det betyder att även de börshandlade fonder som replikerar utvecklingen av spannmål och softs kan stå inför en kommande prisuppgång.

Under den senaste månaden har Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSEArca: CORN) stigit med 11,1 procent, Teucrium Soybean Fund (NYSEArca: SOYB) har stigit med 4,6 procent och Teucrium Wheat Fund (NYSEArca: WEAT) har ökat med 6,0 procent.

Den diversifierade ETNen iPath Bloomberg Grains Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSEArca: JJG) som representerar en korg av spannmål. Fördelningen är majs (45,3 procent), sojabönor (35,4 procent) och vete (19,3 procent), har under den senaste månaden stigit med 10,7 procent. United States Agriculture Index Fund (NYSEArca: USAG) som är en ETF som äger både jordbruksråvaror och softs. USAG ger sina innehavare en exponering mot råvaror som till exempel sojabönor, majs, vete, kakao, lean hogs, kakao, kaffe och bomull. Under den senaste månaden har denna börshandlade fond stigit med 7,5 procent. Teucrium Agricultural Fund (NYSEArca: TAGS) som har en likaviktad exponering mot socker, vete, majs och sojabönor har stigit med 7,8 procent under den senaste månaden.

Sannolikheten ligger på 80 procent

The Climate Predictions Center som ingår i National Weather Service anser att sannolikheten nu ligger så pass högt som 80 procent för att vi kommer att få se hur väderfenomenet El Niño fortsätter under våren 2016 i den norra hemisfären. Tidigare metereologiska rapporter har förutspått att väderfenomenet skall fortsätta under vintern 2015/2016. El Niño som är ett väderfenomen, brukar leda till att yttemperaturen i Stilla Havet stiger, något som kan leda till kraftig nederbörd och översvämningar i Sydamerika samt torka i Asien och i Östafrika. The Climate Predictions Center varnar nu för att effekterna av El Niño kan intensifieras under senhösten och vintern.

Den huvudsakliga orsaken till varningen är att temperaturen i Stilla Havet just nu är varmare än normalt vid denna tid på året. De förändrade väderförhållandena kan komma att påverka priset på jordbruksråvaror framöver, speciellt i samband med planteringssäsongenen i september. Det är sannolikt att Australiens högproteinhaltiga veteskörd som odlas i landets östra delar kommer att drabbas av torrare förhållanden. Produktionen av sojabönor i Indien, Asiens näst största producent, kan komma att drabbas negativt av torka i landets centrala och västra delar. Majsproduktionen i Kina och Indien kan också komma att drabbas negativt. Det betyder emellertid att amerikanska och sydamerikanska spannmålsodlare kan exportera sin gröda till Asien. Det innebär således att en utdragen El Niño kan leda till spannmålsrally eftersom det uppstår en okad konkurrens om det spannmål som produceras i Nord- och Sydamerika.

Stark fundamenta för råvaror, men volatilitet och ekonomisk osäkerhet tar övertaget

Stark fundamenta för råvaror, men volatilitet och ekonomisk osäkerhet tar övertaget

Stark fundamenta för råvaror, men volatilitet och ekonomisk osäkerhet tar övertaget Analyshuset ETF Securities har i en rapport sammanfattat sin syn på råvaruprisernas utveckling under resten av 2015. ETF Securities finner att det finns stark fundamenta för råvaror, men volatilitet och ekonomisk osäkerhet tar övertaget

Industrimetaller – Fortsatt uppgång väntas

Förutsättningarna för många industrimetaller har försvårats, men uppgången vidhålls tack vare ett antal faktorer. Det som håller tillbaka priserna är en starkare US-dollar och oro över kinesisk efterfrågan. Detta bör dock ha begränsad påverkan under andra halvåret 2015. Vi räknar fortsatt med en stark amerikansk dollar, men den kommer sannolikt ha begränsad inverkan på industrimetallpriser eftersom uppgången är ett resultat ökad ekonomisk aktivitet, vilket i sin tur stöttar efterfrågan. Enskilda industrimetaller kommer att fortsätta att handlas i enlighet med fundamenta, men en positiv överraskning i form ytterligare kinesiska eller europeiska stimulansåtgärder skulle vara välkommet.

Guld – Bör stiga något till årsskiftet

Guldet har handlats i ett relativt snävt intervall på 1 160 – 1 225 US-dollar per uns under Q2 2015. Vi tror dock att priset kommer stiga fram till årsskiftet eftersom de globala politiska lättnaderna väntas fortsätta och det kommer troligen dröja längre än många tror innan USA höjer räntorna. Fysisk efterfrågan kommer sannolikt att fortsätta växa även under detta år. Om situationen i Grekland förvärras kan vi se en ökad efterfrågan på guld, men än så länge har detta inte visat sig.

Olja – Behöver sjunka innan det kan stiga mer

Den ständiga kampen om marknadsandelar kommer initialt att få oljepriserna att sjunka, då i synnerhet OPEC kommer att fortsätta att producera mer än marknaden efterfrågar. Åtstramningar i utbudet från högkostnadsproducenter utanför USA så småningom innebära att priserna återhämtar sig. Vi tror dock att marknaden har reagerat något för tidigt på förväntningar om ett åtstramat utbud. Med dagens priser minskar har incitamenten för högkostnadsproducenter att dra ner på produktionen.

Oljeindustrin har sammanlagt meddelat CAPEX-nedskärningar på ca 100 miljarder USD. Vi tror att priset behöver sjunka för att dessa nedskärningar skall genomföras. Vi tror även att det kommer att vara högkostnadsproducenter utanför USAs skifferindustri som får kämpa hårdast för att behålla marknadsandelar. Den pigga amerikanska skifferoljeindustrin har stor potential att öka produktionen snabbt när priserna återhämtar sig medan konventionella oljeproducenter har mycket längre ledtider.

Jordbruk – El Niño får stora konsekvenser, positiva och negativa

Väderfenomenet El Niño pågår just nu och har uppgraderats till måttlig styrka. För vissa grödor kan El Niño öka produktionen, medan den för andra skulle vara direkt förstörande. Om El Niño intensifieras ytterligare förväntar vi oss bättre odlingsförhållanden för kaffe (minskade frostskador i Sydamerika) och soja (bättre odlingsförutsättningar i USA), vilket kommer dra ner priset. På andra håll kommer torrare, varmare väder i viktiga odlingsområden att förstöra förutsättningarna för vete, majs, kakao och sockerrör, vilket skulle vara en katalysator för prisstegringar.

Sentiment overshadows fundamentals … for now

Sentiment overshadows fundamentals… for now

Commodity Monthly Monitor – Sentiment overshadows fundamentals … for now
June/July 2015

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Highlights

Currency impact overshadows stronger El Niño threat for softs.

Gold stable as tighter US policy overshadows Greece concerns.

Softer Chinese economic sentiment weighs on industrial metals

Energy sector buoyant as demand strengthens.

Outside the energy sector, investor sentiment for commodities has softened on the back of concern over the global economic outlook and the volatility that has pervaded financial markets. Volatility has been a ubiquitous force not only across asset classes, but across regions, as uncertainty over the health of the Chinese economy has lingered at the same time as fears of a Grexit has risen. Although policymakers have warned investors to expect protracted market volatility, stimulus in China, Japan, Europe and beyond is likely to keep demand conditions favourable for most commodities. With improving commodity fundamentals beginning to reassert, we expect that sentiment will rebound in coming months as stronger evidence of the global recovery begins to be witnessed.

Currency impact overshadows stronger El Niño threat for softs. Sharp moves in sugar have largely been currency related, offsetting any concern over reduced supply if the El Niño intensifies later in the year. Meanwhile good US growing conditions have kept any gains in check for grains.

Gold stable as tighter US policy overshadows Greece concerns. Gold outperformed other precious metals, remaining resilient despite the threat of rising US rates. Other metals in the sector were adversely impacted by evidence of softer demand.

Softer Chinese economic sentiment weighs on industrial metals. Despite broadly tighter fundamental conditions, deteriorating Chinese economic sentiment weighed on the industrial metals complex. We expect recovery in prices, as supply optimism begins to fade in the latter stages of 2015.

Energy sector buoyant as demand strengthens. Investors have cut bets of a near-term upside move in oil prices, despite rising demand. With oil supply remaining elevated on a global scale, the risk of a downside move in crude prices will increase if demand growth fades.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.