Vinnare och förlorare ETFer vecka 29 2015. Tillhör Du dem som anser att det går för långsamt med fonder? Med rätt börshandlad fond kan det gå snabbt, nedan har vi listat Vinnare och förlorare ETFer vecka 32 2015 på den amerikanska marknaden. Observera att i sammanställningen inte ingår några så kallade hävstångs-ETFer. Samtliga dessa börshandlade fonder kan handlas genom både Nordnet och Avanza.
Under veckan som har gått noterar vi att oljepriset fortsätter ned, denna energiråvara handlas nu strax ovanför 40 USD per fat, en nivå som ingen trodde vi skulle se igen för bara något år sedan. En annan råvara som varit i fokus är guld, en tillgångsklass som ofta betraktas som en safe haven under perioder av oro. Inte mindre än tre av de fem börshandlade fonder som steg mest under veckan var sådana som replikerar utvecklingen av guld på ena eller andra sättet. Den fjärde, GDX, följer utvecklingen av företag som producerar guld.
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (NYSEArca: VXX) som replikerar utvecklingen av VIX-indexet, det så kallade ”skräckindexet”. Denna ETN har under veckan som gått stigit med nästan 30 procent, vilket tyder på en betydande oro i marknaden. Det förklarar även varför de börshandlade fonder som replikerar utvecklingen av guldpriset har stigit så pass mycket som det har gjort.
Bland förlorarna ser vi Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEArca: TAN) som tappade inte mindre än 15 procent. Med ett allt lägre oljepris är intresset för alternativa energikällor lägre varför fallet är naturligt. Ju högre pris på energi som olja desto större intresse finns det att lägga ned pengar på alternativa energikällor som sol och vind eftersom det går att uppnå en break even på en snabbare tid. Faller oljepriser dröjer det längre innan en break even uppnås.
• Agricultural commodity prices surge, attracting investors on supply concern.
• Sugar inflows of US$15.3mn mark the largest inflows into any commodity over past month.
• Optimism over global recovery drives outflows from gold.
• Largest inflows into energy ETPs for 14 weeks, totaling US$10.5mn.
• This Thursday, we are hosting the webinar: ”Sentiment vs Fundamentals, What Happens Next?” taking a look at what may happen when prices realign with fundamentals. Learn more and register
Broad basket commodity ETPs received over 50% of total inflows. With bond and some equity benchmarks seeming stretched, investors appear to be increasingly looking at the relative value of the commodity market and gaining broad based exposure via ETPs that offer a diversified exposure to a number of sectors. Meanwhile, despite the prolonged negotiations attempting to stem a Greek debt default, investors appear to be anticipating an 11th hour deal. Investors are becoming more optimistic about economic conditions and appear to be gaining more cyclical exposures and reducing defensive assets and with China continuing to support its economy with fresh rate cuts, commodity prices are likely to be well supported.
Agricultural commodity prices surge, attracting investors on supply concern. Wheat led the agricultural sector gains, as excess rainfall in the US is expected to further delay to the winter crop harvest. Meanwhile, the International Grains Council has also released estimates indicating a deficit for the 2015/16 crop year for both wheat and corn. However, with significant stock levels for both commodities, material gains will depend on how growing conditions will affect the progress of this year’s crop.
Sugar inflows of US$15.3mn mark the largest inflows into any commodity over past month. Bargainhunters appear to be seeing the 6½ year low sugar prices as an attractive entry point amid a global sugar glut. While expectations abound for another year of surplus in 2015, the threat to sugar supply from the El Niño could curb supplies from India, the world’s second largest producer. Additionally, data released last week showed that some Brazilian production in the June 2015 remains significantly below the same period a year earlier.
Optimism over global recovery drives outflows from gold. Last week saw the largest outflows from gold in 14 weeks, totaling US$126.8mn. Investors are seeking more cyclical exposures, believing in the sustainability of the economic recovery. In contrast to gold, and hovering at multi-year lows, silver, in particular has experienced strong inflows in 2015, with a greater amount of its demand profile coming from industrial sources.
Largest inflows into energy ETPs for 14 weeks, totaling US$10.5mn. Inflows into broad basket energy ETPs reached a 5-week high, netting US$7.2mn. Long natural gas ETPs received the biggest single commodity flows, receiving US$5.4mn after the build in storage levels surprised the market on the downside. Recently a surge in demand from power generation has seen stocks decline, largely due to warmer weather in recent weeks.
Key events to watch this week. With the Greek crisis enflamed by the decision to hold a referendum on the reform and bailout conditions, the secondary focus for investors will be the CPI readings for the Eurozone and the nonfarm payrolls in the US to gauge the extent that the future of monetary policy path will be divergent. Commodity investors will again focus on the weekly oil and natural gas storage figures, while in the agricultural space, this week’s USDA crop conditions and acreage reports will be monitored for any potential threat to current supply expectations.
Video Presentation
Martin Arnold, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.
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Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.
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Energy rallies while agriculture pares recent gains.
China A-shares rally on positive indications from MSCI.
Commodity currencies diverge.
Talks between Greece and its creditors collapsed over the weekend adding a further blow to the country’s precarious financial situation after the IMF pulled out discussions last week. Euro-zone finance ministers will meet again on Thursday to try to break the impasse, but the willingness from either side to see a resolution appears to be wearing thin. Elsewhere, the Federal Open Market Committee will host a press conference and present its summary of economic projections after its rate decision, where no change is expected.
Commodities
Energy rallies while agriculture pares recent gains. Natural gas gained 7.6% last week, reversing the previous two week’s losses. Higher power demand driven by air-conditioning needs tend to drive up natural gas demand in the summer period. Above average temperature forecasts for the south east of the US were the catalyst for the recent gains. There were no surprises in the weekly natural gas in storage data with a net change of 111 Bcf, close to 113 Bcf expected. Both Brent and WTI continued to defy the lack of material supply tightening news, with both benchmarks gaining close to 5%. Crude oil prices appear to be reacting to higher demand forecasts, but we believe that the higher prices themselves are likely to choke off demand. Sugar declined a further 3.5% last week, to a 6 year low, driven mainly by a depreciating Brazilian Real exchange rate. The global glut in sugar continues to weigh on sentiment. The USDA surprisingly increased wheat supply forecasts for this year. Wheat had previously been rallying following excess rain in in the key growing areas in the US.
Equities
China A-shares rally on positive indications from MSCI. MSCI declared it is a matter of “when” and not “if” they will include domestically traded A-Shares to its Emerging Market benchmark. MSCI announced that is working with the China Securities Regulatory Commission on overcoming the final roadblocks to inclusion. Furthermore they said they will not necessarily wait to their annual index review to announce inclusion. If reform maintains its current pace, we are likely to see MSCI’s concerns on capital mobility, quota allocation and beneficial ownership quickly resolved. That would pave the way for domestically traded shares to enter the emerging market index that currently has approximately US$1.5tn benchmarked against it. European bourses meanwhile traded lower as concerns about Greece’s precarious finances linger.
Currencies
Commodity currencies diverge. Citing weak commodity prices, falling import prices and subdued wage inflation, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate last week driving the NZD lower. It also expressed concern that the currency is still overvalued despite depreciating since April, and that further rate cuts are possible. The Reserve Bank of Australia also remains dovish. Meanwhile the recent bounce in oil price has supported NOK and CAD, driving the commodity currencies apart. The lack of progress in Greece’s negotiations with its creditors continued to weigh on the Euro. With the IMF pulling out of discussions, the risk of a dramatic end to the standoff between the Greek government and its creditors has now increased. As long as the Fed continues to indicate it is on track to raise rates in September, we are likely to see the US dollar remain a key haven for investors.
For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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Vinnare och förlorare ETF-marknaden vecka 24 2015. Tillhör Du dem som anser att det går för långsamt med fonder? Med rätt börshandlad fond kan det gå snabbt, nedan har vi listat Vinnare och förlorare ETFer vecka 24 2015 på den amerikanska marknaden. Observera att i sammanställningen inte ingår några så kallade hävstångs-ETFer.
Förra helgens OPEC-möte har gett effekt på energipriserna, både oljan och naturgasen gynnades och steg när det visade sig att OPEC valde att inte öka sina produktionskvoter vilket många hade befarat. Istället valde OPEC att låta produktionskvoterna ligga fast. Inte mindre än tre av de fem bästa börshandlade fonderna denna vecka är sådana som replikerar utvecklingen av olja och naturgas.
Notabelt är att detta även styrde vilka ETFer som har gått sämst, både uran och kol har gått sämre, då detta är energikällor där efterfrågan, och därmed också priset, styrs av pris och tillgång på olja. Dessa råvaror är helt enkelt substitut till olja som en energikälla.
ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly OPEC Affirms Production Ceiling of 30mbd
Long natural gas ETPs see highest inflows since December 2014.
Oil market glut drives US$37.2mn out of long oil ETPs.
We are hosting a webinar at 2pm today to cover Friday’s OPEC meeting featuring Amrita Sen, a renowned oil analyst from Energy Aspects – find out more and register.
Agricultural commodities were the outperformers this week, with weather remaining a catalyst. In the case of coffee, the potential for crop damage during the Brazilian winter sparked fears of lower harvest. Wheat also posted a better than 7% gain for the week, as hard winter wheat quality dipped and the threat of rainfall potentially delaying harvests. With an El Niño expected to last most of this year, weather is likely to continue to be a source of volatility in agricultural markets this year. The OPEC cartel maintained the status quo as widely expected. A better-than-expected jobs report out on Friday in the US could place upward pressure on the US dollar and weigh on commodities this week.
Long natural gas ETPs see highest inflows since December 2014. Bargain hunters drove US$19.2mn into long natural gas ETPs as the price of US natural gas fell a further 3% last week (-7% in the past month). Gas in storage rose more than expected, driving its price lower. The US summer is a seasonal high demand period, driven by the need to power air conditioning. ETC investors appear to view the recent weakness in prices as an aberration and look for demand to strengthen during the course of the summer.
Oil market glut drives US$37.2mn out of long oil ETPs. A further US$3.8mn went into short oil ETPs, underscoring bearish sentiment. Investors widely anticipating the OPEC’s affirmation of its production ceiling of 30 million barrels per day, withdrew holdings of long oil. Managed money positions in ICE Brent crude futures have dropped by over 35% to the lowest level seen since early April. OPEC focused on the rising demand for oil as a supporting factor for its decision. In reality OPEC produces more than 31 million barrels per day, but the group claimed it will adhere to the ceiling more closely in the future, which was seen by some as a bullish signal. Nonetheless, we are skeptical. We believe that the market remains overly optimistic about the pace of supply tightening by non-OPEC producers and we could see a pull-back in price before supply does actually tighten later this year, potentially opening attractive entry points for investors. US stocks remain significantly elevated compared to longer term averages, despite rig counts falling by 60%. We acknowledge US commercial crude stocks are moving in the right direction after falling for the fifth consecutive week, but with the threat of Iran, Iraq and Syria ramping up production, the global glut could be extended.
The OPEC cartel promises to study the impact of falling investment on supply by its next meeting. It is currently concerned about the deferral of investment on oil production stability. OPEC has urged non-OPEC countries to also cooperate more in driving oil market stability. However, many markets including the shale industry in the US, do not have a forum for cooperation. These industries have many small firms operating independently. So it is doubtful that the cooperation the cartel is seeking will materialise. A possible outcome, as Saudi uses up more of its spare capacity, is that the more nimble US shale industry becomes the balancing agent in global oil supply when demand rises.
Key events to watch this week. A host of Chinese data ranging from inflation to exports to credit will give the market a sense for how the world’s largest consumer of commodities’ economy is faring. The USDA WASDE report will garner particular attention after the volatility in agricultural prices in recent weeks.
Video Presentation
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
Important Information
General
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.
This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.
This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.
Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.
Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.
The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.
ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.
Risk Warnings
Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.
If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.
